Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- The issues
- Restaurant sales are growing, but FSRs are struggling
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Americans want to cook more often in 2020
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- Figure 2: Planned dining out behavior for 2020, October 2019
- Volatile economic conditions pose a serious risk
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- Figure 3: Restaurant behaviors, October 2019
- The opportunities
- Invest in food quality in 2020
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- Figure 4: Areas of concentration for restaurants, October 2019
- Younger diners willing to pay for quality
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- Figure 5: Restaurant attitudes, by generation, October 2019
- The majority of consumers prefer casual dining experiences
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- Figure 6: Restaurant attitudes, October 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurant sales continue to grow, but FSRs are growing at a slower rate
- At-home cooking is restaurants’ biggest competition
- Gen Z are increasingly important diners
Market Size and Forecast
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- Foodservice industry maintains moderate growth
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- LSR segment growth outpaces FSRs
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- Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment share, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Fast casual sales propel LSR segment growth
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- Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 12: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 13: Top 10 fast casual restaurant chain percentage change in sales over prior year, 2018
- Casual and family dining chain sales contribute to slower FSR segment growth
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- Figure 14: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 15: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 16: Top 10 casual dining restaurant chain percentage change in sales over prior year, 2018
- Figure 17: Top 10 family dining restaurant chain percentage change in sales over prior year, 2018
Market Perspective
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- Home-cooked meals perceived as healthier than dining out
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- Figure 18: Attitudes toward healthy dining, December 2018
- Retailers invest in prepared food delivery
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- Figure 19: Prepared food purchase frequency – NET prepared food user groups and any purchase, October 2018-2019
Market Factors
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- Economic instability is a threat for operators
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- Figure 20: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-October 2019
- Generation Z comes of age
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- Figure 21: Population, by generation, 2014-24
- Younger Americans are increasingly diverse
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- Figure 22: Distribution of population, by generation and Hispanic origin, 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Diet-specific menus become table stakes
- Operators struggle to bring diners into restaurants
- Connecting with canna-fans
What’s Working
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- Operators personalize menus to meet dieters’ needs
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- Figure 23: Dietary preferences, February 2019
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- Figure 24: Qdoba Lifestyle bowls
- Fast food operators go beyond the traditional beef burger
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- Figure 25: Increase in menu item incidence for meat substitutes as an ingredient on QSR menus, Q1 2015-Q3 2019
- Figure 26: Increase in menu item incidence for meat substitutes as an ingredient across restaurant segments, Q3 2015-Q3 2019
What’s Struggling
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- On-premise dining is on the decline
What to Watch
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- Ghost kitchens offer even more delivery options
- Cater to canna-curious consumers or risk losing them
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- Figure 27: Cannabis statements, July 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- More Americans visit LSRs and are doing so more often
- Gen Zers are increasingly important diners
- Prioritize natural and high-quality ingredients
Restaurant Visitation
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- Nearly all Americans have dined out in the past three months
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- Figure 28: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, October 2019
- LSR visitation is more habitual
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- Figure 29: Restaurant visitation frequency, October 2019
- More than half of Millennials visit coffee/tea shops at least weekly
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- Figure 30: Restaurant visitation frequency, Net – Once a week or more, by generation, October 2019
- Hispanic consumers are top restaurant-goers across segments
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- Figure 31: Restaurant visitation frequency, Net – Once a week or more, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2019
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- Figure 32: QSR concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2019
Planned Dining Out Behavior for 2020
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- Two in five consumers plan to cook at home more in 2020
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- Figure 33: Planned dining out behavior for 2020, October 2019
- Parents want to cook more often
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- Figure 34: Planned dining out behavior for 2020, October 2019
- Young generations are digitally savvy diners
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- Figure 35: Planned dining out behavior for 2020, October 2019
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- Figure 36: Delivery and pickup motivators– Any agree, by generation, September 2019
Restaurant Behaviors
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- Dining out visitation is vulnerable to changing economic conditions
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- Figure 37: Restaurant behaviors, October 2019
- Gen Z spending more on dining out, but are also most likely to cut back on dining to save
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- Figure 38: Restaurant behaviors, by generation, October 2019
- A variety of delivery options can meet parents’ need for convenience
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- Figure 39: Restaurant behaviors, by parental status and gender, October 2019
Restaurant Attitudes
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- Half of consumers prefer more casual dining experiences
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- Figure 40: Restaurant attitudes, October 2019
- Frequent FSR customers are willing to spend more for plant-based options
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- Figure 41: Restaurant attitudes, by restaurant visitation frequency segmentation, October 2019
- Younger consumers willing to pay for quality, but aren’t satisfied with current options
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- Figure 42: Restaurant attitudes, by generation, October 2019
Menu Item Interest
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- Diners prioritize quality ingredients
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- Figure 43: Menu item interest, October 2019
- Frequent FSR customers are more interested in meatless options
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- Figure 44: Menu item interest, by restaurant visitation frequency segmentation, October 2019
- CBD-infused menu items appeal to younger consumers
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- Figure 45: Menu item interest, by generation, October 2019
- Gen Zers expect more transparency
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- Figure 46: Menu item interest, by generation October 2019
Plant-Based Menu Item Motivators
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- Health is the primary driver for repeat plant-based purchases
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- Figure 47: Plant-based menu item motivators, October 2019
Areas of Concentration for Restaurants
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- Consumers want operators to concentrate on food quality in 2020
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- Figure 48: Areas of concentration for restaurants, October 2019
- Asian and Hispanic consumers are most interested in more authentic international cuisines
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- Figure 49: Areas of concentration for restaurants, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 50: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 51: Total US sales and forecast of limited service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 52: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 53: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2019
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