Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Key takeaways
- The issues
- Cereal sales continue to decline
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
- Non-parents less engaged in the category
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- Figure 2: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by parental status, May 2019
- Consumers’ health expectations at breakfast may be unattainable for the category
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- Figure 3: Reasons for decreased consumption, May 2019
- The opportunities
- Break up with breakfast
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- Figure 4: Hot and cold cereal behavior, May 2019
- Give BFY cereal a holistic boost
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- Figure 5: Interest in innovation, May 2019
- Embrace your space
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- Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Cereal associations, May 2019
- Keeping adults in mind
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- Figure 7: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, by age, May 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category sales continue to dwindle
- Cereal struggles to compete on portability
- Snacking an opportunity in more ways than one
- Anti-sugar attitudes not necessarily a dead end
Market Size and Forecast
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- Cereal sales continue to slowly ebb away
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Hot cereal begins to follow cold cereal’s downward slope
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Perspective
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- Convenience wins out in breakfast products
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- Figure 11: Breakfast consumption, by age, April 2018
- Cereal brands looking to other categories to drive growth
Market Factors
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- Breakfast losing its title
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- Figure 12: Meal statements, 2016 and 2018
- BFY attributes a stretch for most cereals to reach
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- Figure 13: Health attributes sought, May 2018
- Snacking opens up opportunities
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- Figure 14: Snack motivations, November 2018
- Fewer households with children may require increased adult engagement
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- Figure 15: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Post embraces indulgence, wins
- Indulgent cereals are defying the odds
- Functional benefits provide a health halo for the cereal category
- Fun, adult-friendly cereal on the horizon
Company and Brand Sales of Hot and Cold Cereal
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- Post makes impressive gains by leaning into indulgence and novelty
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Cold cereal brand power remains strong
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- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Smaller brands chip away at Quaker and Cream of Wheat share
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- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Leaning into the indulgent truth
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of heavily sweetened cold cereal brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Functional benefits give cereal a BFY boost
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of functional cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Figure 21: Number of hot and cold cereals with functional claims, percentage change 2016-18
- The middle ground is a good place for lightly sweetened brands to play
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of functional cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Grains and organic claims take the fun out of cold boxed cereal
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- Figure 23: Struggling cereal brands with grain-based products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Diet is a four letter word
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- Figure 24: Struggling legacy diet brand products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
What’s Next?
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- Putting the fun in functional
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- Figure 25: Leading adult-friendly cereal
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Maintaining consumption in adulthood a challenge
- BFY eating hurts and helps cereal consumption
- Expanding cereal occasions
- Sweetened cereal’s unhealthy reputation may not call for action
Types of Hot and Cold Cereal Consumed
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- Lightly sweetened stands strong in cereal consumption
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- Figure 26: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
- Parents report increased and broader household consumption
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- Figure 27: Repertoire of hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
- Figure 28: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by parental status, May 2019
- Men and women consume the same, but motivations differ
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- Figure 29: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by gender, May 2019
- Figure 30: Reasons for increased consumption, I am treating myself with it more, by gender, May 2019
- Consumption changes with age
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- Figure 31: Repertoire of hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
- Figure 32: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by age, May 2019
- Millennials aren’t killing cereal, but keep an eye on Gens X and Z
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- Figure 33: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by generation, May 2019
- Hispanic households consume more oats
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- Figure 34: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by Hispanic origin, May 2019
Hot and Cold Cereal Consumption
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- Cereal still a household staple but frequency falls away
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- Figure 35: Hot and cold cereal consumption, May 2019
- Prevent parents from pulling back
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- Figure 36: Hot and cold cereal consumption, gender and parental status, reported “myself,” May 2019
- Adult consumption decreases by household size
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- Figure 37: Hot and cold cereal consumption by household size, May 2019
Change in Hot and Cold Cereal Consumption
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- More consumers increasing than decreasing consumption
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- Figure 38: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, May 2019
- Both hot and cold sweetened cereals see the attrition
- High fiber, nutrient-dense cereal making its way into consumers’ diets
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- Figure 39: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, May 2019
- Consumption changes vary by age
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- Figure 40: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, by age, May 2019
- Parents increasing consumption more than non-parents
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- Figure 41: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, by age of children in household, May 2019
Reasons for Increased Consumption
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- Occasions a large driver for increased consumption
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- Figure 42: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
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- Figure 43: Breakfast attributes, April 2018
- Hot cereal primed for expanded meal occasions
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- Figure 44: Types of cereal consumed by reasons for increased consumption, eating it for meals other than breakfast more, May 2019
- Hispanics treating themselves with cereal
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- Figure 45: Reasons for increased consumption, treating myself with it more, by Hispanic origin, May 2019
Reasons for Decreased Consumption
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- Consumers are looking to other categories for their breakfast fix
- Specialized diets remain niche, but not unimportant
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- Figure 46: Reasons for decreased consumption, May 2019
Hot and Cold Cereal Behavior
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- Moving beyond breakfast can offset the duplicity of the category
- Low away-from-home usage indicates portability needs a boost
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- Figure 47: Hot and cold cereal behavior, May 2019
- Figure 48: Hot and cold cereal consumption by behavior, May 2019
- Younger consumers are more apt to be versatile in occasions
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- Figure 49: Hot and cold cereal behavior, by age, May 2019
- Parents consuming more across occasions
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- Figure 50: Hot and cold cereal behavior, by parental status, May 2019
Hot and Cold Cereal Perceptions
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- Unboxing health perceptions
- High fiber options fare well
- To improve health perceptions or not?
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- Figure 51: Hot and cold cereal associations, May 2019
- Figure 52: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Cereal associations, May 2019
- Satiety challenges require an R&D boost
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- Figure 53: Hot and cold cereal associations, filling, May 2019
- Portable, on-the-go format an opportunity for growth
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- Figure 54: Hot and cold cereal associations, portable and good to eat on the go, May 2019
- Health perceptions differ by age
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- Figure 55: Hot and cold cereal associations, by age, May 2019
- Lightly sweetened surpasses in convenience among older consumers
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- Figure 56: Hot and cold cereal associations, lightly sweetened cereal, by age, May 2019
- Engaging adults with nostalgia
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- Figure 57: Hot and cold cereal associations, nostalgia, by generation, May 2019
Interest in Innovation
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- Holistic wellness an entry to the BFY consumer
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- Figure 58: Innovation to drive trial, May 2019
- TURF analysis
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- Figure 59: TURF analysis – Product features interest, May 2019
- Gut health gaining traction
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- Figure 60: Social mentions of probiotics, prebiotics and postbiotics, July 2018-19
- Older consumers may be hard to convince
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- Figure 61: Innovation to drive trial, by age, May 2019
- Packaging more of a priority for parents
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- Figure 62: Innovation to drive trial, by parental status, May 2019
- Dads eager for added protein
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- Figure 63: Innovation to drive trial, by gender and parental status, added protein, May 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- TURF Methodology
- Repertoire methodology
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 71: Simmons, breakfast attitude, November 2018
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