In the minds of many commentators, the UK is in the midst of the most turbulent period in its post-war history.

The start of Boris Johnson’s premiership was defined by Parliament forcing anti-No Deal legislation upon him and thwarting subsequent attempts to call an election, and the controversy over his prorogation of Parliament ahead of a new Queen’s Speech on 14 October. At the time of writing, Brexit is just weeks away and there are no real signs of a deal being agreed between the Government and the EU. Despite the Benn Bill’s requirement for the Prime Minister to request a further Brexit extension if no deal is agreed with the EU by October 19 October, it is not guaranteed that this would be granted by the EU, leaving the prospect of a chaotic No Deal departure still on the table.

Yet consumers are overwhelmingly positive. All three of Mintel’s consumer financial sentiment indices have hit record highs since May 2019, while the financial activity index reached its highest level in August. And although there are signs of weakness in some consumer-facing markets, the Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales values in August were still 3.4% up compared to a year ago.

The scale of the uncertainty facing Britain means it is unreasonable to expect the average consumer to have anything even approaching a confident prediction about how Brexit will affect their finances in the future. Instead, people are reflecting on their own personal situations. On this front, there is reason for the optimism coming through on our financial confidence index.

With unemployment sitting at rates previously unseen since the 1970s and wages continuing to grow beyond inflation, consumers are positive about their prospects for the coming year. This is in part because they’ve felt the benefits of these factors over the last year. 31% say they are better off than last year, compared to 21% who are worse off. Our measure of annual change in financial situations has never been this positive. Looking forward, 37% are confident that they’ll be fine, while another 47% have some concerns but think they should be OK.

Another likely factor driving the positivity seen in our research is Brexit fatigue. The fact that the withdrawal negotiations have dragged on for so long has inevitably seen at least some people switch off. At the same time, that politicians and newspapers continue to offer wildly differing views on what Brexit will mean has also desensitized many to even the most striking warnings.

This could all change quickly.

In the run-up to the UK’s initial departure date at the end of March, we saw a significant negative shift in Brexit-related sentiment. As we near the latest deadline at the end of October, we can expect Brexit to come back to the front of consumers’ minds. Add in the likelihood of a general election and people may well lose some of the positivity they have shown over the summer.