Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The future market will mainly rely on product upgrade
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- Figure 1: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
- Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
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- Figure 3: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
- Ambient yogurt enjoys higher growth rate and this status quo will not be changed in the following years
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- Figure 4: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
- Figure 5: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
- Figure 6: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
- Companies and brands
- Leading brands are grabbing more market share
- Regional brands are facing fiercer competition in the chilled segment battlefield
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- Figure 7: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
- Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
- The consumer
- Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
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- Figure 8: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
- Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
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- Figure 9: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
- Different purposes under different consumption occasions
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- Figure 10: Consumption purposes, May 2019
- Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
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- Figure 11: Purchase factors, May 2019
- Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
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- Figure 12: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
- Figure 13: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Re-consider the positioning of ambient yogurt
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 14: Product examples of all natural ambient yogurt, Ecuador and Brazil, 2018
- Figure 15: New PET bottle packaging for Ambrosial and Just Yogurt, China, 2019
- Get inspiration from foodservice brands to play on visual innovation
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 16: LELECHA’s thick yogurt series, which put mashed fruits into layers to create a rich flavour and texture, China, 2019
- Figure 17: Product examples of Heytea’s fruits yogurt cup, which gives visual impact through added fresh ingredients, China, 2019
- Add value to chilled yogurt with goal-driven positioning
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 18: Dannon Light & Fit Original Greek’s vanilla non-fat yogurt highlights high protein and high calcium, USA, 2019
- Figure 19: Yakult Beauty+ Drinking Yogurt for Skin, South Korea, 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- The future market will rely more on price increases
- Ambient yogurt shows more resilience than chilled yogurt
- E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
Market Size and Forecast
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- A market driven by both price and volume rises
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- Figure 20: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
- Future growth will mainly rely on product upgrading
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- Figure 21: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
- Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
Market Drivers
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- Consumers’ interest in gut health provides opportunities for yogurt
- E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
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- Figure 23: Posts of yogurt evaluation and related food knowledge shared by consumers on Xiaohongshu, China, 2019
- Figure 24: LePur’s product introductions highlighting the quality of ingredients, China
- Government policies may raise consumers’ confidence for domestic dairy products
Market Segmentation
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- Ambient yogurt still enjoys higher growth rate than chilled one
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- Figure 25: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
- Figure 26: Change in storage type of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
- Chilled yogurt needs to wait a long time for momentum
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- Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Regional brands face fiercer competition in the chilled segment
- Growth strategy of Yili and Mengniu start to diverge
- Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
Market Share
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- The CR2 for yogurt market is over 50%
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- Figure 29: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
- Competition within the chilled segment is intensifying
Competitive Strategies
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- National brands
- Intensify omni-channel presence, especially in new retail channels
- Actively promote the chilled yogurt business
- Invest in marketing to maintain the dynamics of star products
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- Figure 30: Mengniu Just Yogurt’s sponsorship of popular reality show
- Regional brands
- Terun: forging “internet famous” (wanghong) products through niche flavours
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- Figure 31: Terun’s yogurt products with interesting flavours, highlighting various consumption methods, China, 2018
- Classy Kiss: launch the first “body shape management” yogurt to target urban elites
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- Figure 32: Classy Kiss YO KEEP’s Tencent Video commercial highlighting “self-discipline”, China, 2019
Who’s Innovating?
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- The big picture overview
- Flavours that are worth watching
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- Figure 33: Noteworthy flavours of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
- Though “minus” claims are more popular, “plus” claims show an up-trend
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- Figure 34: Change in “minus” and “plus” claims of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
- Innovation highlights
- Make it clean but also healthy
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- Figure 35: Yoplait’s new yogurt brand YQ, highlights 17g protein and 1g sugar on pack, US, 2018
- Figure 36: Yuanqisenlin’s Hokkaido 3.1 highlights 3.1 times protein, China, 2019
- Functional and fortified yogurts are booming: beyond protein
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- Figure 37: Product example of Arla’s Protein, aiming at consumers with fitness habits, Norway, 2019
- Figure 38: Product example of “high fibre” and “high protein” yogurt, Israel, 2019
- The rise of two types of protein yogurt
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- Figure 39: Classy Kiss and LePur’s double protein yogurt products, China, 2019
- Development towards cross-over drinks, snacks, desserts and meal replacements
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- Figure 40: Danone’s Oikos Yogurt highlights the combination of the creaminess of yogurt and the crunch of nuts, Spain, 2018
- Figure 41: Bright’s Momchilovtsi-flavoured ice cream highlights added yogurt, China, 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
- Different purposes under different consumption occasions
- Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
Consumption Frequency
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- Ambient yogurt is more for daily consumption, especially for males
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- Figure 42: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
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- Figure 43: Consumption frequency of ambient yogurt – more than once a week, by gender and age, May 2019
- Chilled spoonable yogurt appeals to high earners
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- Figure 44: Consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt – selected frequency, by monthly personal income, May 2019
Awareness of Live Bacteria
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- Chilled drinking yogurt positively correlates to live bacteria
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- Figure 45: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
- Figure 46: Awareness of live bacteria – chilled drinking yogurt, by education degree, May 2019
- Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
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- Figure 47: Awareness of live bacteria – ambient yogurt, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
Consumption Occasions
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- Males are consuming during breakfast, while females are consuming between meals
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- Figure 48: Consumption occasions, May 2019
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- Figure 49: Consumption occasions – selected occasions, by gender and age, May 2019
- Ambient for meals while chilled for non-meal occasions
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- Figure 50: Consumption occasions – during breakfast, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
- Figure 51: Consumption occasions – during dinner, by consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt, May 2019
Consumption Purpose
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- Though more for functional purposes, casual purposes are key to appeal to females
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- Figure 52: Consumption purposes, May 2019
- Create yogurt-based snacks/desserts for young consumers
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- Figure 53: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by age, May 2019
- Different needs under different occasions…
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- Figure 54: Consumption occasions, by consumption purposes, May 2019
- …thus different positionings for ambient and chilled yogurt
Purchase Factors
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- Brand is still the most influential factor
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- Figure 55: Purchase factors, May 2019
- Post-90s care more about flavour, while older consumers emphasise functional features
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- Figure 56: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by generation, May 2019
- Lure high earners with clean-label yogurt offerings
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- Figure 57: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by monthly personal income, May 2019
Ideal Yogurt
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- Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
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- Figure 58: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
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- Figure 59: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
- Males are more into long shelf-life yogurt products
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- Figure 60: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
- Healthy ingredients are welcomed across all ages
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- Figure 61: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
Meet the Mintropolitans
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- Consume all types of yogurt more frequently
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- Figure 62: Consumption frequency – more than once a week, by consumer classification, May 2019
- Figure 63: Consumption occasions, by consumer classification, May 2019
- Mintropolitans do not have a better understanding of live bacteria
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- Figure 64: Awareness of live bacteria – I think yogurt I consumed contains live bacteria, by consumer classification, May 2019
- More likely to consume yogurt for functional purposes
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- Figure 65: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by consumer classification, May 2019
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 66: Total market value of yogurt, China, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total market volume of yogurt, China, 2014-24
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 68: Total market value of ambient yogurt, China, 2014-24
- Figure 69: Total market value of chilled yogurt, China, 2014-24
- Figure 70: Total market value of lactobacillus drinks, China, 2014-24
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
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