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Yogurt - China - August 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this report
Excluded
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
The future market will mainly rely on product upgrade
Figure 1: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
Figure 3: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
Ambient yogurt enjoys higher growth rate and this status quo will not be changed in the following years
Figure 4: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
Figure 5: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
Figure 6: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
Companies and brands
Leading brands are grabbing more market share
Regional brands are facing fiercer competition in the chilled segment battlefield
Figure 7: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
The consumer
Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
Figure 8: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
Figure 9: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
Different purposes under different consumption occasions
Figure 10: Consumption purposes, May 2019
Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
Figure 11: Purchase factors, May 2019
Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
Figure 12: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
Figure 13: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Re-consider the positioning of ambient yogurt
The facts
The implications
Figure 14: Product examples of all natural ambient yogurt, Ecuador and Brazil, 2018
Figure 15: New PET bottle packaging for Ambrosial and Just Yogurt, China, 2019
Get inspiration from foodservice brands to play on visual innovation
The facts
The implications
Figure 16: LELECHA’s thick yogurt series, which put mashed fruits into layers to create a rich flavour and texture, China, 2019
Figure 17: Product examples of Heytea’s fruits yogurt cup, which gives visual impact through added fresh ingredients, China, 2019
Add value to chilled yogurt with goal-driven positioning
The facts
The implications
Figure 18: Dannon Light & Fit Original Greek’s vanilla non-fat yogurt highlights high protein and high calcium, USA, 2019
Figure 19: Yakult Beauty+ Drinking Yogurt for Skin, South Korea, 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
The future market will rely more on price increases
Ambient yogurt shows more resilience than chilled yogurt
E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
A market driven by both price and volume rises
Figure 20: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
Future growth will mainly rely on product upgrading
Figure 21: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
MARKET DRIVERS
Consumers’ interest in gut health provides opportunities for yogurt
E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
Figure 23: Posts of yogurt evaluation and related food knowledge shared by consumers on Xiaohongshu, China, 2019
Figure 24: LePur’s product introductions highlighting the quality of ingredients, China
Government policies may raise consumers’ confidence for domestic dairy products
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Ambient yogurt still enjoys higher growth rate than chilled one
Figure 25: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
Figure 26: Change in storage type of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
Chilled yogurt needs to wait a long time for momentum
Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Regional brands face fiercer competition in the chilled segment
Growth strategy of Yili and Mengniu start to diverge
Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
MARKET SHARE
The CR2 for yogurt market is over 50%
Figure 29: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
Competition within the chilled segment is intensifying
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
National brands
Intensify omni-channel presence, especially in new retail channels
Actively promote the chilled yogurt business
Invest in marketing to maintain the dynamics of star products
Figure 30: Mengniu Just Yogurt’s sponsorship of popular reality show
Regional brands
Terun: forging “internet famous” (wanghong) products through niche flavours
Figure 31: Terun’s yogurt products with interesting flavours, highlighting various consumption methods, China, 2018
Classy Kiss: launch the first “body shape management” yogurt to target urban elites
Figure 32: Classy Kiss YO KEEP’s Tencent Video commercial highlighting “self-discipline”, China, 2019
WHO’S INNOVATING?
The big picture overview
Flavours that are worth watching
Figure 33: Noteworthy flavours of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
Though “minus” claims are more popular, “plus” claims show an up-trend
Figure 34: Change in “minus” and “plus” claims of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
Innovation highlights
Make it clean but also healthy
Figure 35: Yoplait’s new yogurt brand YQ, highlights 17g protein and 1g sugar on pack, US, 2018
Figure 36: Yuanqisenlin’s Hokkaido 3.1 highlights 3.1 times protein, China, 2019
Functional and fortified yogurts are booming: beyond protein
Figure 37: Product example of Arla’s Protein, aiming at consumers with fitness habits, Norway, 2019
Figure 38: Product example of “high fibre” and “high protein” yogurt, Israel, 2019
The rise of two types of protein yogurt
Figure 39: Classy Kiss and LePur’s double protein yogurt products, China, 2019
Development towards cross-over drinks, snacks, desserts and meal replacements
Figure 40: Danone’s Oikos Yogurt highlights the combination of the creaminess of yogurt and the crunch of nuts, Spain, 2018
Figure 41: Bright’s Momchilovtsi-flavoured ice cream highlights added yogurt, China, 2019
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
Different purposes under different consumption occasions
Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
Ambient yogurt is more for daily consumption, especially for males
Figure 42: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
Figure 43: Consumption frequency of ambient yogurt – more than once a week, by gender and age, May 2019
Chilled spoonable yogurt appeals to high earners
Figure 44: Consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt – selected frequency, by monthly personal income, May 2019
AWARENESS OF LIVE BACTERIA
Chilled drinking yogurt positively correlates to live bacteria
Figure 45: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
Figure 46: Awareness of live bacteria – chilled drinking yogurt, by education degree, May 2019
Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
Figure 47: Awareness of live bacteria – ambient yogurt, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
Males are consuming during breakfast, while females are consuming between meals
Figure 48: Consumption occasions, May 2019
Figure 49: Consumption occasions – selected occasions, by gender and age, May 2019
Ambient for meals while chilled for non-meal occasions
Figure 50: Consumption occasions – during breakfast, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
Figure 51: Consumption occasions – during dinner, by consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt, May 2019
CONSUMPTION PURPOSE
Though more for functional purposes, casual purposes are key to appeal to females
Figure 52: Consumption purposes, May 2019
Create yogurt-based snacks/desserts for young consumers
Figure 53: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by age, May 2019
Different needs under different occasions…
Figure 54: Consumption occasions, by consumption purposes, May 2019
…thus different positionings for ambient and chilled yogurt
PURCHASE FACTORS
Brand is still the most influential factor
Figure 55: Purchase factors, May 2019
Post-90s care more about flavour, while older consumers emphasise functional features
Figure 56: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by generation, May 2019
Lure high earners with clean-label yogurt offerings
Figure 57: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by monthly personal income, May 2019
IDEAL YOGURT
Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
Figure 58: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
Figure 59: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
Males are more into long shelf-life yogurt products
Figure 60: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
Healthy ingredients are welcomed across all ages
Figure 61: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
MEET THE MINTROPOLITANS
Consume all types of yogurt more frequently
Figure 62: Consumption frequency – more than once a week, by consumer classification, May 2019
Figure 63: Consumption occasions, by consumer classification, May 2019
Mintropolitans do not have a better understanding of live bacteria
Figure 64: Awareness of live bacteria – I think yogurt I consumed contains live bacteria, by consumer classification, May 2019
More likely to consume yogurt for functional purposes
Figure 65: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by consumer classification, May 2019
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 66: Total market value of yogurt, China, 2014-24
Figure 67: Total market volume of yogurt, China, 2014-24
APPENDIX – MARKET SEGMENTATION
Figure 68: Total market value of ambient yogurt, China, 2014-24
Figure 69: Total market value of chilled yogurt, China, 2014-24
Figure 70: Total market value of lactobacillus drinks, China, 2014-24
APPENDIX – METHODOLOGY AND ABBREVIATIONS
Methodology
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations

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