Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Groceries generate only modest sales growth
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- Figure 1: Multi-outlet sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2013-23
- Most grocery shopping still happens in-store
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- Figure 2: Approach to grocery shopping, February 2019
- Younger shoppers look beyond supermarkets
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- Figure 3: In-store retailers for grocery shopping, by age, February 2019
- Time a key factor in grocery shopping frustration
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- Figure 4: Frustrations with in-store shopping, February 2019
- The opportunities
- Shoppers look to store tech to save time and money
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- Figure 5: Interest in technology that helps in selection/navigation, February 2019
- Experiential concepts key to appealing to younger shoppers
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- Figure 6: Interest in experiential in-store concepts, by age, February 2019
- Shopping experience key to loyalty, especially among younger shoppers
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward in-store grocery shopping, by age, February 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Groceries generate only modest sales growth
- Other channels continue to gain on supermarkets
Market Size and Forecast
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- Groceries generate only modest sales growth
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- Figure 8: Multi-outlet sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Other channels continue to gain on supermarkets
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- Figure 10: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by channel, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 11: Multi-outlet share of groceries, by channel, 2013-23
- Food and drink dominates grocery sales
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- Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2013-18
- Supermarkets still lead food and drink sales but are losing share
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- Figure 13: Multi-outlet share of food and drink, by channel, 2013-23
- For supermarkets, grocery sales are concentrated in food and drink
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- Figure 14: Category share of groceries in supermarkets, 2013-18
- Other multi-outlet retailers split more evenly between food and nonfood
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- Figure 15: Category share of groceries in supermarkets, 2013-18
Market Perspective
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- Foodservice continues to gain on grocery
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- Figure 16: Share food expenditures for in-home food vs dining out, 2013-18
- Online behaviour data: Impact of meal delivery services and meal kits
- An ageless opportunity: only a small drop off in usage among older adults
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- Figure 17: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of select meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by age, October 2017-November 2018
- Figure 18: Online behavior data: past-30-day and past-7-day use of select meal delivery websites and apps, by age, October 2017-November 2018
- Usage skews to higher incomes
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- Figure 19: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of select meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by household income, October 2017-November 2018
- Food-focused consumers a key target for meal kits and meal delivery
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- Figure 20: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of select meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by Simmons food lifestyle segments, October 2017-November 2018
- Figure 21: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of select meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by grocery retailers shopping in past four weeks, October 2017-November 2018
Market Factors
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- Most consumers report making an effort to eat healthy
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- Figure 22: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
- Home cooking seen as healthier
- Freshness a top priority for health-focused grocery shoppers
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- Figure 23: Health attributes sought, May 2018
- Cooking “unenthusiasm” is on the rise
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- Figure 24: Share of cooking segments, 2016-2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Amazon moves up
- Supermarkets face diverse competition
- As supermarkets open new concept stores, prepared is the new fresh
- AI will work behind the scenes to improve the shopping experience
Company Sales of Grocery Retailers
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- Amazon moves up the list of top grocery retailers
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- Figure 25: Top US grocery retailers, 2019
What’s Happening?
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- As supermarkets open new concept stores, prepared is the new fresh
- Meal kits continue to move in-store
- More variety
- Easier preparation options
What’s Next?
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- AI will work behind the scenes to improve the shopping experience
- An old concept that could be poised for growth
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Most grocery shopping still happens in-store
- Perimeter a focal point for growth of online grocery shopping
- Younger shoppers look beyond supermarkets
- Convenience and quality fresh products guide store choice
- Shopper marketing needs to connect with shoppers before the store
- Experiential concepts far more interesting to younger shoppers
- Shoppers look to store tech to save time and money
- Time a key factor in grocery shopping frustration
- Shoppers satisfied with, even enjoy grocery shopping in-store
Grocery Shopping Overview
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- Most grocery shopping still happens in-store
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- Figure 26: Approach to grocery shopping, February 2019
- Older grocery shoppers a little less likely to shop online
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- Figure 27: Approach to grocery shopping, by age, February 2019
- Perimeter a focal point for growth of online grocery shopping
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- Figure 28: Approach to grocery shopping by category, February 2019
- Preferred method by trip type
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- Figure 29: Preferred approach to shopping by trip type, February 2019
In-store Retailers for Grocery Shopping
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- Traditional supermarkets remain top choice for in-store shopping
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- Figure 30: In-store retailers for grocery shopping, February 2019
- Younger shoppers look beyond supermarkets
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- Figure 31: In-store retailers for grocery shopping, by age, February 2019
Reasons for Selecting Store Used Most Often
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- Convenience and quality fresh products guide store choice
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- Figure 32: Reasons for selecting in-store retailer used most often, February 2019
- Retailer choices reveal complexity of shopping preferences
- Traditional supermarket strengths are location and promotional deals
- Discount grocers’ key strengths are low prices and store brands
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- Figure 33: Reasons for selecting in-store retailer used most often, by in-store retailer used most often, February 2019
In-store Shopping Behaviors
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- Shopper marketing needs to connect with shoppers before the store
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- Figure 34: In-store shopping behaviors, February 2019
- Older shoppers more methodical, younger somewhat more impulsive
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- Figure 35: In-store shopping behaviors, by age, February 2019
- In their words: different approaches to list making
- Taking inventory
- Keeping a running list
- Planning ahead
Interest in Experiential In-store Concepts
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- Sampling key to a positive in-store experience
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- Figure 36: Interest in experiential in-store concepts, February 2019
- Experiential concepts far more interesting to younger shoppers
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- Figure 37: Interest in experiential in-store concepts, by age, February 2019
Interest in Tech Concepts
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- Shoppers look to store tech to save time and money
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- Figure 38: Interest in technology that helps in selection/navigation, February 2019
- Younger shoppers look to a wider variety of tech solutions
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- Figure 39: Interest in technology that helps in selection/navigation, February 2019
Frustrations with In-store Shopping
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- Time a key factor in grocery shopping frustration
- Out-of-stocks a frustration for more than one third of shoppers
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- Figure 40: Frustrations with in-store shopping, February 2019
- Young shoppers especially likely to be frustrated by time-related issues
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- Figure 41: Frustrations with in-store shopping, by age, February 2019
Attitudes toward In-store Shopping
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- Shoppers satisfied with, even enjoy grocery shopping in-store
- Appreciation for the tactile elements of grocery shopping
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward in-store grocery shopping, February 2019
- Shopping experience key to loyalty, especially among younger shoppers
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward in-store grocery shopping, by age, February 2019
- In their words: shopping in-store a positive, rewarding experience
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Behavioral data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 44: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 45: Supermarket sales and forecast of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 46: Sales and forecast of groceries through other multi-outlet channels, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 47: Multi-outlet sales of food and drink, by retail channel, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 48: Multi-outlet sales of general merchandise, by retail channel, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 49: Multi-outlet sales sales of HBC, by retail channel, at current prices, 2013-18
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 50: Top US grocery retailers, brands/concepts included, 2019
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Appendix – Online Behavior Data
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- Figure 51: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by gender, October 2017-November 2018
- Figure 52: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by age, October 2017-November 2018
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- Figure 53: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by household income, October 2017-November 2018
- Figure 54: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by household size, October 2017-November 2018
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- Figure 55: Online behavior data: past-30-day use of meal delivery and meal kit websites and apps, by grocery retailers shopped in the past four weeks, October 2017-November 2018
- Figure 56: Simmons Food and Lifestyle Segmentation descriptions
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