Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Consumers spend £3.3 billion on seasonal events
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- Figure 1: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- Retail sales slowed in the final quarter
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- Figure 2: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- November online sales increasingly important
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- Figure 3: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- Companies and brands
- Total advertising spend up 2.5% in 2018
- Pop-up stores capitalise on the Halloween spirit
- The year of the discount engagement ring
- The consumer
- Prolific back-to-school purchasing
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- Figure 4: Back-to-school purchasing, September 2018
- One in five self-gift for Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 5: Gift purchasing for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
- Popularity of Halloween is growing but so are concerns
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- Figure 6: Spending on Halloween, 2017 and 2018
- More consumers are celebrating Bonfire Night at home
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- Figure 7: Spending on Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
Issues and Insights
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- Sustainability comes to the forefront
- The facts
- The implications
- Value for money becomes a priority
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Demand for seasonal products robust in 2018
- Brexit begins to dampen consumer confidence
- Autumn maintains greatest share of retail sales
- Online penetration peaks in November
Market Sizes
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- Seasonal spending could fall in 2019
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- Figure 8: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- Back-to-school market boosted by non-clothing
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- Figure 9: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products, 2018
- Figure 10: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products, 2016-18
- Fewer consumers spending money on Halloween events
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- Figure 11: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2018
- Figure 12: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products and events, 2017 and 2018
- More people celebrating Bonfire Night at home
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- Figure 13: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products, 2018
- Figure 14: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products and events, 2017 and 2018
- Consumers cut back on Valentine’s Day gifts
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- Figure 15: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2018
- Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products and experiences, 2018 and 2019
Retail Sales
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- Autumn maintains greatest share of retail spend
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- Figure 17: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2018
- By month, December continues to dominate
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- Figure 18: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- The leading categories
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- Figure 19: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- Retail sales slowed in the final quarter
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- Figure 20: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- Household goods enjoy a strong year
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- Figure 21: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018
Online Retail Sales
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- Online share peaks in November
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- Figure 22: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, 2017 and 2018
- November also increasingly important in value terms
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- Figure 23: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
- Online growth spikes in May
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- Figure 24: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018
- Clothing and footwear is the strongest online performer
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- Figure 25: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2017 and 2018
Market Drivers
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- Real wages grow throughout 2018
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- Figure 26: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, January 2014-December 2018
- Brexit continues to create uncertainty
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- Figure 27: How consumers think Brexit will impact the UK economy, January 2019
- Signals that consumers are adopting more cautious spending habits
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- Figure 28: Trends in what extra money is spent on, 2018 and 2019
- Ongoing changes in the age structure of the population
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- Figure 29: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
- Figure 30: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
- The shift online impacts the high street
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- Figure 31: Change in UK retail footfall, by location, January 2016-December 2018
Black Friday and Christmas
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- Retail sales during the festive period rise 2.1%
- Black Friday continues to boost spending in November
Brands and Companies – What You Need to Know
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- Retailers spent more on advertising in 2018
- Back-to-school price competition intensifies
- Beauty fast becoming a core seasonal category
- Retailers focus on experiences to drive sales
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Valentine’s Day
- Romantic meal for two at IKEA, pasty-focused meal at Greggs and discount engagement rings
- Selfridges Lip Bar to help those looking for love
- Back-to-school
- Lidl launches super-affordable school uniform range
- Poundland positions itself as a one-stop back-to-school shop
- Halloween
- Pop-up stores capitalising on the Halloween spirit
- Halloween Beauty Party
- Spooktacular-themed beauty products from Lush
- Christmas
- Jingle Brow pop-up
- Tiffany brings the festive season to life with immersive sensory experience
- Using Christmas to make a positive environmental impact
- Giving something back
- Supermarket car park festive makeover
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising expenditure peaks around Bonfire Night and Black Friday
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- Figure 32: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2017 and 2018
- Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
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- Figure 33: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2017 and 2018
- Total advertising spend up 2.5% in 2018
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- Figure 34: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2017 and 2018
- TV share of advertising spend down year on year
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- Figure 35: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2017 and 2018
- Digital advertising spend up year on year in 2018
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- Figure 36: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2017 and 2018
- Back-to-school campaigns
- Halloween campaigns
- Christmas campaigns
- Valentine’s Day campaigns
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Back-to-school shoppers want quality and convenience
- Ethical and health concerns regarding Halloween are apparent
- Bonfire Night is an integral part of British culture
- Consumers are tired of stereotypical Valentine’s Day gifts
Back-to-School
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- Prolific purchasing for the new school year
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- Figure 37: Back-to-school purchasing, September 2018
- An expensive affair for parents
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- Figure 38: Average amount spent on back-to-school items, September 2018
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- Figure 39: Average amount spent on back-to-school items, 2016-18
- Most still shop in-store
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- Figure 40: How they shopped for back-to-school items, September 2018
- Supermarkets remain popular…
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- Figure 41: Where they shopped for back-to-school items, September 2018
- …and despite their value proposition are where parents spend the most
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- Figure 42: Where they spent the most on back-to-school items, September 2018
- Quality is a driving force in where they choose to shop
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- Figure 43: Important factors when choosing where to shop for back-to-school items, September 2018
- Half of parents spent more in 2018
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- Figure 44: Back-to-school shopping behaviour, September 2018
- A demand for everything in one place
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- Figure 45: Attitudes towards shopping for back-to-school items, September 2018
Halloween
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- Just under half spent money on the event
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- Figure 46: Spending on Halloween, 2017 and 2018
- Average spend increases
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- Figure 47: Average amount spent on products for Halloween, 2017 and 2018
- Physical retail is still preferred by the majority
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- Figure 48: How they shopped for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2017 and 2018
- Supermarkets take the majority of spend
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- Figure 49: Where they shopped for Halloween products, November 2018
- Carving a pumpkin a firm tradition
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- Figure 50: What activities they did to celebrate Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2018
- Popularity of Halloween is growing but so are concerns
- Over half value social media for inspiration
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards Halloween, November 2018
Bonfire Night
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- Purchasing for Bonfire Night decreases…
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- Figure 52: Spending on Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
- …but those purchasing products are spending more
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- Figure 53: Average amount spent on products for Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
- In-store purchasing remains the most popular
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- Figure 54: How they shopped for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2017 and 2018
- Grocers dominate in-store purchasing
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- Figure 55: Where they shopped for Bonfire Night products, November 2018
- Fireworks still a firm tradition
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- Figure 56: What activities they did to celebrate Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2018
- Bonfire Night is part of British culture
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards Bonfire Night, November 2018
Valentine’s Day
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- Most celebrate with their partner
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- Figure 58: Who they celebrated Valentine’s Day with, February 2019
- Confectionery most purchased gift
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- Figure 59: Gift purchasing for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
- More consumers are celebrating with experiences
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- Figure 60: Activity spending for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
- One in five self-gift
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- Figure 61: Who they spent money on for Valentine’s Day, February 2019
- Dramatic decline in spending
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- Figure 62: Average amount spent on gifts and activities for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
- Last-minute shoppers
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- Figure 63: When consumers started planning Valentine’s Day, February 2019
- Fatigue with stereotypical gifts
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- Figure 64: Attitudes towards Valentine’s Day, February 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Additional consumer data
- Back-to-school
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- Figure 65: Important factors when choosing where to shop for back-to-school, by where they shopped for back to school items, September 2018
- Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 66: Gift purchasing for Valentine's Day, by who they spent money on, February 2019
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