Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- America today
- 2019 Consumer Trend Spotlight: On Display
- The people
- The economy
- The markets
- Total spending growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fanchart forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2013-23
- Fastest growth categories
- Slowest growth categories
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- Figure 2: Expected growth, by category, 2018-23
- The consumer
- Top goals
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- Figure 3: Top 2019 goals, February 2019
- Top values
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- Figure 4: Top American values, February 2019
- Self-perceptions
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- Figure 5: Personal perceptions, February 2019
- What it means
America Today – The Trend to Watch
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- America On Display
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- Figure 6: Open letter from Clif Bar, March 2019
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- Figure 7: Bud Light – Special Delivery, February 2019
America Today – What Will Impact 2019
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- The issue of privacy
- The new left
- America’s place in the world
- The “you do you” health threat
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- Figure 8: Number of measles cases reported, 2010-Q1 2019
- Environmental enemies
America Today – The People
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- What you need to know
- Population growth is a sign of the times
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- Figure 9: Total US population and annual growth rate, 1900-2018
- Figure 10: Global population growth, expected annual rate, 2015-20
- Growth rate has slowed in recent years, despite strong economy
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- Figure 11: Total US population, 2010-18
- As birth rate slows, population ages
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- Figure 12: Median age of the population, 1940-2050
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- Figure 13: Median age, by select countries, 2016
- American generations
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- Figure 14: Time magazine cover of Parkland Florida students, April 2018
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- Figure 15: Population distribution, by generation, 2018 and 2023
- Slow movement toward racial and ethnic diversity
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- Figure 16: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2013-23
America Today – The Economy
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- What you need to know
- Consumer spending drives economic growth
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- Figure 17: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, Q1 2007-Q4 2018
- Confidence is strong and stable…
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- Figure 18: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-February 2019
- …even through market volatility
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- Figure 19: Daily closing price, S&P 500, March 2014-March 2019
- Figure 20: VIX index of expected volatility, March 2014-March 2019
- Low unemployment lends security
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- Figure 21: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-February 2019
- Household incomes slowly improving
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- Figure 22: Real median household income in the United States, 2017 CPI-U-RS adjusted dollars, annual, not seasonally adjusted, 1984-2017
- Figure 23: Top 1% of income earners’ share of income and official us poverty rate, 1968-2017
- Strong dollar pushes trade deficit higher
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- Figure 24: US dollar index, January 1978-February 2019
- What we’re watching
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- Figure 25: New seriously delinquent (90 days+) balances, auto loans, 2003-18
How Extra Money Is Spent
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- Saving is a top priority…
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- Figure 26: How extra money is spent, February 2019
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- Figure 27: How extra money is spent, count of items chosen, February 2019
- …and saving is a luxury
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- Figure 28: How extra money is spent – Saving for the future, by household income, February 2019
- Debt can prevent younger groups from getting ahead
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- Figure 29: How extra money is spent – Paying off debt, by age, February 2019
- Diversifying investors, not just investments
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- Figure 30: How extra money is spent – Saving and investments, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Market moving categories
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- Figure 31: Total US sales and fanchart forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2013-23
- Largest spending categories: Housing, Health, Transportation, and Finance
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- Figure 32: Consumer spending by category ($billions), 2018
- Fastest growing categories, next five years
- Slowest growing categories, next five years
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- Figure 33: Expected growth, by category, 2018-23
Category Review – Healthcare
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of healthcare, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Private label continues impressive growth in OTC and VMS categories
- Optimizing the “at-home” experience for convenience-seeking consumers
- Increasing mental health awareness demands cross-category support
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Transportation
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of transportation spending, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Demand for Teslas after $7,500 tax credit expired
- RAV4 takes Toyota’s top spot in sales
- Digital personal assistants in the dashboard
- Non-Tesla electric vehicle sales
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Technology and Communications
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
- Trade disputes risk spiking cost of technology for consumers
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- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of technology and communications, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- 5G rolls out to consumers
- How popular will the first 5G smartphones be?
- 5G technology utilized by businesses
- Tracking technology and software will take marketing and retail to a new level
- Tech companies in senior citizen healthcare
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Dining Out
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of dining out, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Segments are blurring
- Casual dining and midscale chains continue to slip
- Dayparts are blurring
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – In-home Food
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
- Fresh, healthy, and convenient
- Renaissance in the freezer case
- Snacking trend continues apace
- Premiumization drives growth in indulgence categories
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- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of in-home food, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Healthier options drive frozen side dish growth
- Decadence, quality drive ice cream sales
- Back to balance: a common sense, nutrient dense diet
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Leisure and Entertainment
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Twitch brings gamers to the streaming market
- Amazon drives content creation
- Disney spreads its wings
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Home and Garden
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of home and garden market value, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Customization, innovation elevate appliances
- Home décor for every lifestage
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- Figure 41: Wayfair registry targets newly engaged lifestage via Instagram, November 2018, January 2019
- Secondary benefits could bring new life to the lawn and garden category
- Mintel predicts
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- Figure 42: Lowe’s, Google partnership for AR and VR tools, March 2017
Category Review – Vacations and Tourism
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of travel and tourism, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Experience is key
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- Figure 44: Carnival Cruise Line mobile ad, August 2018
- Exclusivity has different meanings for different generations
- Airlines are getting creative with revenues
- Hotel room tech isn’t always a draw
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- Figure 45: Marriott email sent to loyalty members, May 2018
- Flexible hotel rewards appeal to more travelers
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- Figure 46: Loyalty email from Marriott, February 2019
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Clothing and Accessories
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Amazon and Target leverage own brands to attract shoppers on and offline
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- Figure 48: Amazon email campaign, October 2018
- Figure 49: Target email campaign, December 2018
- Rent and resale appeal to young shoppers and parents
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- Figure 50: ThredUP mobile advertisement, May 2018
- Figure 51: Ann Taylor email campaign, September 2018
- Nordstrom makes shopping seamless
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- Figure 52: Nordstrom email campaign, email campaign, December 2018
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Prestige level beauty at mass price points
- Face masks are a selfie-worthy staple skincare step
- Clean beauty evolves beyond ingredients
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (Out of Home)
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Alcohol alternatives will expand on-premise
- FMBs take over
- Natural wines capture Millennials’ attention
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (In Home)
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (in home), at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Ketel One aims at health
- Heineken may find a hero in zero
- Lagunitas takes on cannabis by taking on cannabis
- Diageo utilizes technology to engage/assist the at-home drinker
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales non-alcoholic drinks at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Bubbling sales of sparkling water
- RTDs need to keep innovating
- Mintel predicts
Category Review – Household Care
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- Analyst perspective
- Key consumer insights
- Market performance
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- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales for household care at current prices, 2013-23
- What we’re watching
- Mintel predicts
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Top goals are financial and physical health
- Focus on fundamentals
- Leading with values
- Enduring political engagement
- Putting brands to work
- The company/consumer collaborations
Top 2019 Goals
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- Physical and financial health on the minds of Americans
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- Figure 58: Top 2019 goals, February 2019
- Young adults put mind over matter
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- Figure 59: Top 2019 goals – Improving mental and physical health, by age, February 2019
- Personal relationships remain important over time
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- Figure 60: Top 2019 goals – Improving finances, relationships or career, by age, February 2019
Achieving Personal Goals
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- Putting aside money to get ahead
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- Figure 61: Top 2019 goals – Improving finances, February 2019
- Tackling the basics to improve physical health
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- Figure 62: Top 2019 goals – Improving physical health, February 2019
- Squashing stress is the key to mental health
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- Figure 63: Top 2019 goals – Improving mental health, February 2019
- Make new friends, but keep the old
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- Figure 64: Top 2019 goals – Improving personal relationships, February 2019
- Seeing is believing
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- Figure 65: Top 2019 goals – Trying new things, February 2019
- Making an impact is more about doing than donating
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- Figure 66: Top 2019 goals – Making a positive impact, February 2019
- Climbing the corporate ladder
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- Figure 67: Top 2019 goals – Advancing career/job, February 2019
American Values
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- American integrity
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- Figure 68: Top American values, February 2019
- Empathy is front and center
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- Figure 69: Top American values – Write-in responses, February 2019
- Generations see values through a different lens
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- Figure 70: Top American values, by generation, February 2019
- Growing a thicker skin
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- Figure 71: Dealing with politics, February 2019
- White men the least sensitive to political topics
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- Figure 72: Dealing with politics, by gender, age, and race, February 2019
- Muddling through the political conversation
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- Figure 73: Dealing with politics – Being angry but positive, February 2019
Self-perceptions
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- Americans may feel powerless to make changes
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- Figure 74: Personal perceptions, February 2019
- Rising value of intellectualism
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- Figure 75: Personal perceptions – Select items, by generation, February 2019
- Balancing strong beliefs and an open mind
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- Figure 76: Personal perceptions – An open mind and a strong moral compass, February 2019
- Progress vs tradition
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- Figure 77: Personal perceptions – Progressive ideas and traditional values, February 2019
Recommendations and Feedback
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- Give and take between consumers and companies
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- Figure 78: Companies and product reviews, February 2019
- Phone interactions can still be more effective than text
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- Figure 79: Companies and product reviews, February 2019
- Young adults lean toward text for personal and professional communication
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- Figure 80: Preference for texting or calling, by age, February 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of housing, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of health and vision, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of health and vision, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 88: Total US retail sales and forecast of transport, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 89: Total US retail sales and forecast of transport, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 91: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 92: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of personal finance, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 95: Total US revenues and forecast for dining out, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 96: Total US revenues and forecast for dining out, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 101: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 102: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 103: Total US retail sales and forecast of tourism, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 104: Total US retail sales and forecast of tourism, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 105: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 106: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 107: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 108: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 109: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in home), at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 110: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 111: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 112: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 113: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 114: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 116: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 117: Total US retail sales and forecast of miscellaneous expenditure, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 118: Total US retail sales and forecast of miscellaneous expenditure, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 119: Where extra money is spent, top combinations analysis, February 2019
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