Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Canada today
- The people
- The economy
- The consumer
- Consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, encouragements will be needed
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- Figure 1: Perception of financial health, January/February 2015-19
- On-the-go solutions will resonate as commuting is a part of everyday life for most
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- Figure 2: Commute time, January 2019
- Opportunities aplenty during weekdays thanks to flexible work arrangements
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- Figure 3: Work locations, January 2019
- Consumers could use some help achieving balance
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- Figure 4: Areas impacted on work days, January 2019
- Canadians hungry for time-savers, so much so 65% are willing to pay for them
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- Figure 5: Time saving attitudes and behaviours, January 2019
- What it means
Canada Today – The People
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- What you need to know
- The face of the nation is changing
- Canada’s population is growing quickly...
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- Figure 6: Population growth by numbers, 1986-2017
- …thanks to immigration
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- Figure 7: Proportion of foreign-born population in Canada, 1981-2036
- The net result is an ever-richer cultural mosaic
- More than meets the eye, acknowledging inclusivity is going beyond what you see
- Changing dynamics for working Canadians
- More parents are working full-time
- The population is concentrated in urban areas
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- Figure 8: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2018
- Commuting times are getting longer as are working hours
- Consumers will crave more ways to cater to an on-the-go lifestyle
- Canada has more seniors than children
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- Figure 9: Population aged 0-14 and 65+, as of July 1, 1995-2035*
Canada Today – The Economy
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- What you need to know
- Economic growth slowed in the latter half of 2018
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- Figure 10: Quarterly growth rates of real GDP, change over previous quarter, Q4 2013-Q4 2018
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- Figure 11: Canada bank rate, March 2014-December 2018
- Job-related factors may be creating a squeeze on consumers
- Canada’s labour participation rate decreases in 2018
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- Figure 12: Canada’s labour participation rate, 2014-18
- Wage growth has not kept up with inflation
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- Figure 13: Wage-Common year-over-year percentage change, Q1 1998-Q3 2018
- Figure 14: Monthly movement in selected components of the Canadian Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, December 2013-December 2018
- Figure 15: Monthly movement in selected components of the Canadian Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, December 2013-December 2018
Expenditure Overview
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- What you need to know
- Total Canadian consumer expenditures in 2018
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- Figure 16: Total Canadian consumer expenditure, at current prices, 2018
- Looking back, which categories have done well?
- Outlook for 2023
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- Figure 17: Total Canadian consumer expenditure and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2013-23
- Looking forward, which categories will stand out?
Category Review – In-home Food
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- In-home food sales to grow at a steady pace
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- Figure 18: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the food (at home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- The tension between convenience and quality remain for Canadians when choosing what to eat
- Plant-based foods continue to become more mainstream
- Waste is increasingly becoming a prominent topic for retailers and manufactures in Canada
- Food’s centrality to day to day life drives higher than average engagement
- Moms remain primarily responsible for cooking
- Engagement with cooking process provides Canadians with a sense of accomplishment
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- Figure 19: Category engagement – In-home food, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- More alternative protein options to come
- More real estate will be dedicated to pre-prepared foods in grocery stores
- Companies respond to consumer demand for greater transparency
Category Review – Alcoholic Beverages (at Home and On-premise)
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- In-home alcoholic beverage sales forecasted to outpace on-premise sales
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- Figure 20: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 21: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic beverages (out of home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- Navigating the positioning of ‘sessionability’
- Can alcoholic beverages also be healthy?
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- Figure 22: NÜTRL Vodka Soda – Not Sweet At All (Bus), October 2018
- Figure 23: Truly Spiked & Sparkling Water Mix Pack (US), February 2019
- Shaken or stirred? Serving up social inspiration for the cocktail revolution
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- Figure 24: Gordon’s Premium Pink Distilled Gin (UK), August 2017
- Figure 25: Beefeater Pink Premium Pink Gin with a Hint of Strawberry (UK), April 2018
- Engagement around alcoholic beverages lower versus overall consumer base
- Opportunity to better engage women with unique flavours
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- Figure 26: Category engagement – Alcoholic beverages, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Buying wine can be daunting for some, but consumers are keen to learn
- Wine preferences vary by age
- Opportunities continue to be seen ciders
Category Review – Non-alcoholic Beverages (at Home)
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Moderate growth forecasted for beverage sales
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- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- Health-related positioning amplified thanks to recent revisions of Canada’s Food Guide
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- Figure 28: Chocolate Partly Skimmed Ultrafiltered Milk (Canada, February 2019)
- Testing the ‘waters’ with ‘hybrid beverages’; how adventurous are Canadians?
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- Figure 29: Upruit Mint Grapefruit Sparkling Coffee (US, January 2018)
- In-home beverage engagement suggests a broader challenge for the industry
- Integrated foodservice and in-home experience key to engaging consumers
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- Figure 30: Category engagement – Non-alcoholic beverages, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Consider taking inspiration from the alcoholic beverage industry
- Natural positioning continues to be important in beverage innovation
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- Figure 31: V8 +Energy White Grape & Raspberry Flavored Energy Drink (US, October 2017)
- Figure 32: Diet Coke Twisted Mango Flavored Diet Soda (US, February 2018)
- Sugar continues to be top of mind for consumers
Category Review – Vacations and Tourism
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Consumer spend on vacations will continue to see fair growth
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- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the vacations and tourism market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- Low-cost airlines may help budget-concerned Canadians take off
- Safety concerns may keep Canadians grounded
- Canadians are keen on new experiences
- Aspirations drive engagement
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- Figure 34: Category engagement – Vacations and tourism, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Alternative accommodations are making a splash
- Travellers show an interest in more authentic local experiences
- Theme parks continue to be a staple of family fun
Category Review – Leisure Spending (Local)
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Leisure-related categories will need a bit more support moving into 2019
- What to watch
- Mixing it up: more blending of retail and foodservice to come
- Food for function: more foodie options for commuters are likely on the horizon
- Colour outside the lines: current positioning of arts and crafts is limiting growth potential
- Retailers haven’t reached their full potential in engaging Canadians with online shopping
- Happiness is on display: buoy engagement by making emotional draws social
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- Figure 35: Category engagement – Leisure spending categories, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Seniors are a relatively untapped segment that is full of potential
- Arts and crafts sectors will benefit from partnerships with foodservice vendors
- Foodservice providers will gain by giving Canadians more reasons to celebrate
- Experiential elements play an increasingly important role in driving traffic
Category Review – Health and Wellness
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Consumer expenditure on BPC and OTC remain steady
- What to watch
- A (new and) notable rise of access to health and wellness experts ‘on-demand’
- Home is where the heart is? Fluidity in function of physical spaces is eroding a sense of belonging
- Good news for arts/crafts category: consumers turning to tactile experiences for stress relief
- More ‘outside’ categories making the stretch to play in the wellness arena
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- Figure 36: #EatTogether 2017, December 2016
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- Figure 37: #EatTogether 2018, December 2017
- Figure 38: #EatTogether 2019, December 2018
- ‘On-the-go’ BPC options will work to draw more engagement
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- Figure 39: Category engagement – Beauty products and personal care, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Moms are in need of some mental relief
- Nourishing mental wellness through snacks
- Consumers connect cooking to mental health benefits
- The arts and crafts category stands to gain by highlighting wellness benefits
Category Review – Technology and Communications
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Market growth depends on expansion instead of incremental innovation
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- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- Anticipating the next tech product to go mainstream
- A shift from ownership to access
- An upcoming battle for subscription dollars
- Predicting the success of foldable smartphones
- Engagement in tech shows need for balance between innovation and simple messaging
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- Figure 41: Category engagement – Technology and communications, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Wearable technology is struggling to capitalize on its momentum
- Smartphones are now the hub of travel technology
- Video game viewership is on the rise
- Free content is changing consumer expectations and disrupting the traditional paid market
Category Review – Transportation
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- A healthy state for the automotive category
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- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transportation market, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch
- SUVs and crossovers are gaining ground
- Safety is a staple consideration
- Consumers are slightly less engaged in the car purchasing process
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- Figure 43: Category engagement – Automotive, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Safety first! Canada’s weather conditions keep safety features top of mind
- Quebecers prefer smaller cars
Category Review – Personal Finance & Housing
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Personal finance expenditure forecast to grow steadily
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- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of personal financial services, at current prices, 2013-23
- Housing market to experience slowing growth
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- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of housing, at current prices, 2013-23
- What to watch – Housing
- Canada’s new, tougher mortgage rules
- Federal government faces pressure to help first-time homebuyers
- Rental vacancy rate dips to 2.4% across Canada
- What to watch – Personal finance and insurance
- Blockchain and banking
- Artificial intelligence and banking
- The evolving world of telematics
- Here's how insurers can prepare for driverless cars
- Smart homes and insurance
- Key consumer findings
- Only 6% of Canadians are unbanked
- Women continue to be less engaged in the financial industry
- Rising cost of education makes student loans the top financial challenge
- Lifestage is a key determinant of product ownership
- Auto, home and life insurance have the highest ownership rates
- Apart from mobile banking and money transfer, digital app usage is low
- Almost half of renters view it as a lifestyle choice
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending
- Commuting is a part of everyday life for most
- Flexible work arrangements mean more people are out during the day
- Consumers could use some help achieving balance
- 65% of Canadians are willing to pay for time-saving products or services
Perceived Financial Health and Discretionary Spending
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- Perception of financial situation softens slightly in 2019…
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- Figure 46: Perception of financial health, January/February 2015-19
- …leading to some pull back in discretionary spending
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- Figure 47: How extra money is spent, January 2018-19
- Rewards and enhanced/elevated experiences will count for more in 2019
- Parents are of two minds when it comes to spending in 2019
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- Figure 48: How extra money is spent, mothers vs fathers, January 2019
- Entertainment companies: consider prioritizing dads and ‘layering’ activities
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- Figure 49: Play Great Games Together – Nintendo Switch, May 2018
- Chinese Canadians eye the long game, reward them for doing so
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- Figure 50: How extra money is spent, Chinese Canadians vs overall, January 2019
- Spotlight on new immigrants
- Less focus on debt, more focus on (cost-efficient) play
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- Figure 51: How extra money is spent, new immigrants vs overall, January 2019
- New hope with new folks: less familiarity leads to greater engagement in more ‘mundane’ categories
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- Figure 52: Category engagement (any high engagement NET) – Select categories, January 2019
Work Locations and Commuting
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- A fifth of Canadians work at home some point work during the week
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- Figure 53: Work locations, January 2019
- Offer the value of comfort in the context of work – Outside of traditional work places
- Retailers outlets, malls and residential buildings could be good hosts
- Offer the value of comfort in the context of work – Inside of traditional work places
- Commuting is a part of everyday life for most
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- Figure 54: Commute time and method, January 2019
- Younger Canadians have longer commutes, so be there
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- Figure 55: Commute time and method, by age, January 2019
- Go with them: consider meeting them where they are – literally
- Moms have shorter commutes, will seek solutions closer to home
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- Figure 56: Commute time, mothers vs fathers, January 2019
- Think local but go social
- Long commutes take a toll on Chinese Canadians
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- Figure 57: Commute time, Chinese Canadians vs overall, January 2019
- Give guidance on the weekends
Areas Impacted on Work Days
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- Personal care and household chores are common struggles
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- Figure 58: Actively seeks time saving solutions for meals, often struggles with ‘downtime’, January 2019
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- Figure 59: Areas impacted on work days, January 2019
- Direct communication channels will benefit drug stores and pharmacies
- Sleep is a top area impacted for younger Canadians
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- Figure 60: Struggle with getting enough sleep on work days, 18-44s vs over-45s, January 2019
- Consider ways to help, or at least not hinder, the right conditions for sleep
- Parents with younger children feel short on personal and family time
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- Figure 61: Select areas impacted on work days, parents with under-12s at home vs overall, January 2019
- Moms need help in the kitchen
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- Figure 62: ‘I look for ways to help save time with meals’, mothers with children under-18 at home vs overall, January 2019
- Serving suggestion: convenience as the main dish, with a side of emotional benefits
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- Figure 63: Kung Pao Chicken – Longo's Fresh Meals in Minutes, November 2016
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- Figure 64: Nutella Appreciation 30, January 2019
Work-life Balance and Time Saving Behaviours
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- Work and life lines are blurring…
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- Figure 65: Perception of work-life balance, January 2019
- …creating a hunger for time-saving products and services
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- Figure 66: Time saving attitudes and behaviours, January 2019
- Leave nothing to the imagination, clearly show them the specific benefits
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- Figure 67: Mobile Order & Pay: Avoid the Line, May 2018
- Figure 68: Make it McDelivery, January 2019
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- Figure 69: Make it McDelivery, January 2019
- Parents with young children rely on tools to manage
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- Figure 70: Time saving attitudes and behaviours, parents with under-5s at home vs overall, January 2019
- Find ways to set them up for success from before the fun begins
- Chinese Canadians less likely to feel they have a healthy work-life balance
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- Figure 71: Perception of work-life balance, Chinese Canadians vs overall, January 2019
- Chinese Canadians rely on resources and are willing to pay for them
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- Figure 72: Time saving attitudes and behaviours, Chinese Canadians vs overall, January 2019
- Root personal care messaging to functionality to appeal to Chinese Canadians
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- Figure 73: Personal care related areas impacted on work days, Chinese Canadians vs overall, January 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 74: Total Canada sales and forecast of overall expenditures, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 75: Total Canada sales and forecast of food (at home), at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 76: Total Canada sales and forecast of food – Dining out market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 77: Total Canada sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 78: Total Canada sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (out of home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 79: Total Canada sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 80: Total Canada sales and forecast of beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 81: Total Canada sales and forecast of OTC healthcare remedies market, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 82: Total Canada sales and forecast of household care market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 83: Total Canada sales and forecast of clothing, footwear and accessories market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 84: Total Canada sales and forecast of technology and communications market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 85: Total Canada sales and forecast of vacations and tourism market, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 86: Total Canada sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 87: Total Canada sales and forecast of home and garden market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 88: Total Canada sales and forecast of transportation market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 89: Total Canada sales and forecast of financial services market, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 90: Total Canada sales and forecast of housing market, at current prices, 2013-23
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