Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Inflation and uplift in cake volume sales spur market growth in 2018
- Further inflation and weak volume sales predicted for 2018-23
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
- Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
- War on sugar continues
- Rise in home baking threatens category sales
- Companies and brands
- Mr Kipling regains ground and own-label extends its lead
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2017/18*
- Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
- More crossover brands enter the market
- Advertising spend rises in 2018
- The consumer
- Nine in 10 adults eat cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods
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- Figure 3: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by type, December 2018
- Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status
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- Figure 4: Factors deemed to make cakes/sweet baked goods healthier, December 2018
- Freshly baked is the top attribute people would pay more for
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- Figure 5: Attributes seen as worth paying more for in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Opportunities for premium products
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- Figure 6: Behaviours relating to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
- Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Focus on naturalness of ingredients is needed
- The facts
- The implications
- Opportunities for expansion in lower-sugar and less sweet cakes
- The facts
- The implications
- Intense competition makes regular innovation imperative
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Inflation and uplift in cake volume sales spur market growth in 2018
- Further inflation and weak volume sales predicted for 2018-23
- Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
- War on sugar continues
- Rise in home baking threatens category sales
Market Size and Forecast
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- Inflation drives category growth in 2018
- Rising ingredients costs and premiumisation trend drive up value sales in 2018
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- Figure 8: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
- Inflation and weak underlying volume sales predicted for 2018-23
- Health trend and ageing population to hinder volume sales
- Inflation to mask weak underlying volume sales
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
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- Figure 10: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by major segment, 2013-18
- Small cakes outperform large ones in 2018
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2017 and 2018
- Celebration cakes lose out to occasion cakes and puddings
- Mixed results in sweet baked goods sales
- Traditional British products lose out to international foods trend
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- Figure 12: Total UK retail sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by type, 2017 and 2018
- Malt loaf gains from PHE endorsement
Market Drivers
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- War on sugar continues
- Manufacturers are tasked with cutting sugar
- PHE report finds mixed results in retailers’ progress on sugar reduction
- Calls grow for stronger action to be taken against the food industry
- New Change4Life snacking campaign offers a challenge and an opportunity
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- Figure 13: Soreen Twitter advert promoting its Change4Life endorsement, later retweeted by Change4Life, January 2019
- Opportunities for lower-calorie products
- Cakes and sweet baked goods makers face particular challenges in reducing sugar
- Progress made on sugar reduction technologies
- Weather extremes of 2018 drive up ingredients prices
- Changes in the UK population could have divergent effects
- Ageing population offers little support for cakes and sweet baked goods
- Growth in child population set to slow down
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- Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population (0-15 year olds), by age, 2013-23
- Parents under pressure to reduce their children’s sugar intake
- Cakes and sweet baked goods face stiff competition
- A third of users are baking more at home than previously
- Improved household incomes give opportunities for premium products…
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- Figure 15: CPI vs average weekly earnings, 2013-18
- …but could lead to products losing out as more people eat out
- Uncertainties surround consumer finances post-Brexit
- Pressure grows on the food industry to reduce packaging waste
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Mr Kipling regains ground and own-label extends its lead
- Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
- More crossover brands enter the market
- Advertising spend rises in 2018
Market Share
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- Mr Kipling regains ground in 2018
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
- Figure 17: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
- Strong NPD activity boosts own-label cakes
- Premiumisation trend benefits own-label at the expense of brands
- Mary Berry’s star power boosts cakes in her name
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- Figure 18: Example of Mary Berry cakes range, 2019
- Soreen’s healthy image boosts sales
- Own-label continues to dominate sweet baked goods sales
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- Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
- Focus on heritage boosts Sheldon’s
- Genius benefits from growth in the free-from category
Start-ups and Disruptors Case Studies – The Protein Bakery
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- Company overview
- What is it?
- Founded
- Company mission statement
- Founders Story
- Mintel analyst view
- Mintel Trends
- Why it could succeed
- Why it could fail
- The verdict
- Product information
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- Figure 20: The Protein Bakery, Date year
- Media profile
- Social media metrics
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- Figure 21: Social media metrics for The Protein Bakery as of January 2019
- The brand’s view
- Sources of funding and support
- Target audience
- What consumer needs does the range meet?
- Product stockists
- Looking to the future
Start-ups and Disruptors Case Study – The Sweet Reason Company
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- Company overview
- What is it?
- Founded
- Company mission statement
- Founder’s story
- Mintel analyst View
- Mintel Trends
- Why it could succeed
- Why it could fail
- The verdict
- Product information
- Media profile
- Social media metrics
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- Figure 22: Social media metrics for Company as of March 2019
- The brand’s view
- Sources of funding and support
- Target audience
- What consumer needs does the range meet?
- Product stockists
- Looking to the future
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
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- Figure 23: New product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2018), 2014-18
- Retailers push the envelope on visual spectacle…
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- Figure 24: Tesco Easter cake, 2018
- Figure 25: M&S Facebook advert for its Santa’s Rooftop Chocolate & Caramel Yule Log, 2018
- …and continue with hot cross bun flavour innovation
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- Figure 26: Examples of hot cross buns in unusual flavours, 2018
- Mr Kipling draws inspiration from children’s books and characters
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- Figure 27: Mr Kipling’s cake slices featuring mythical creatures, 2018-19
- Further activity in bite-size formats
- Retailers target parties with seasonal cake bites
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- Figure 28: Examples of bitesize cakes with seasonal positioning, 2018
- Krispy Kreme unveils doughnut bites
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- Figure 29: Krispy Kreme advert for its doughnut bites, 2019
- More crossover brands enter the cakes category
- Chocolate and biscuit brand extensions blur the boundaries between products
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- Figure 30: Examples of cake bars from chocolate/biscuit brands, 2018
- Mars goes for colour appeal with Skittles rainbow cake
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- Figure 31: Skittles Rainbow Party Cake, 2019
- Weetabix muffins should benefit from brand’s healthy image
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- Figure 32: Example of Weetabix Breakfast Muffins range, 2018
- Baileys makes further play for Christmas with chocolate yule log
- PizzaExpress launches sweet dough balls for Christmas
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- Figure 33: PizzaExpress extends into sweet baked goods, 2018
- Brands and retailers take inspiration from foodservice trends
- Leading and niche brands draw on coffee shop flavour trends
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- Figure 34: Cake launches with coffee shop-inspired flavours, 2018
- Retailers tap the South American trend with churros
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- Figure 35: Examples of own-label churros launches, 2018
- Seasonal products target a more varied range of occasions
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- Figure 36: New product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2018), 2014-18
- Leading brands target new users and occasions with Christmas launches
- Own-label leads on Halloween-themed activity
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- Figure 37: Examples of Halloween-themed seasonal cakes launches, 2018
- Cadbury and Co-op target Halloween with pumpkin flavours
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- Figure 38: Examples of Halloween-themed seasonal cakes with pumpkin flavours, 2018
- Cadbury also targets Bonfire Night
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- Figure 39: Example of Bonfire Night-themed seasonal cake launch, 2018
- Strong activity in seasonal free-from cakes
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- Figure 40: Examples of free-from seasonal cakes/sweet baked goods launches, 2018
- Brands and retailers target Valentine’s Day 2019
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- Figure 41: Examples of Valentine’s-themed seasonal cakes launches, 2018
- Rise in gluten-free launches
- Specialist brand makes functional digestive health claim
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- Figure 42: Example of gluten-free cake with functional health claim, 2018
- Rise in children’s launches, but little real innovation
- Soreen expands Lunchbox Loaves range
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- Figure 43: Example of Soreen Lunchbox Loaves range, 2018
- Vegan claims remain niche
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- Figure 44: Examples of vegan cake launches, 2018
- Alternative Foods launches vegan cakes with aquafaba
- Retailers introduce vegan items into their in-store bakeries
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- Figure 45: Examples of vegan sweet baked goods, 2018-19
- L/N/R sugar claims remain rare
- Multiple claims used to build all-round healthy positioning
- Organic brand explores sugar alternatives
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- Figure 46: Examples of L/N/R sugar cakes launches, 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising spend rises slightly in 2018
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- Figure 47: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2015-18
- Supermarkets continue to dominate advertising
- Waitrose leads on advertising in 2018
- Asda supports its mince pies
- General Mills pushes permissibility in Fibre One adverts
- Premier Foods focuses on Mr Kipling
- TV advert emphasises the importance of kindness
- Mr Kipling teams up with parent bloggers on Christmas campaign
- Cake design competition adds interactive element
- Selected other campaigns
- Soreen builds associations with active lifestyles with cycling campaign
- Bonne Maman madeleines portrayed as ideal for relaxing moments
- Iceland pushes palm oil issue into public consciousness with Christmas TV advert
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nine in 10 adults eat cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods
- Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status
- Freshly baked is the top attribute people would pay more for
- Opportunities for premium products
- Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
- Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
Types of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Eaten
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- Nine in 10 adults eat cakes or sweet baked goods
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- Figure 48: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Under-35s and families are the key users of cakes and sweet baked goods
- Small individual cakes and cake bars have the highest usage
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- Figure 49: Types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eaten, December 2018
- Youth bias is more pronounced for some products than others
- Seven in 10 adults eat five or more cakes/sweet baked goods types
- Under-35s and families have the most varied repertoires
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- Figure 50: Repertoire of cakes and sweet baked goods eaten, December 2018
Frequency of Eating Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Cakes and sweet baked goods are an occasional treat for most people
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- Figure 51: Usage frequency for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by type, December 2018
- Opportunity for premium products to benefit from a ‘less but better’ mentality
- Under-35s and parents are the most likely to eat cakes and sweet baked goods weekly
- Breakfast cakes should help to encourage more frequent usage…
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- Figure 52: International examples of healthier cake bars positioned for breakfast, 2018
- …and could help to better compete with cereal bars
Factors Deemed to Make Cakes/Sweet Baked Goods Healthier
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- Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status…
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- Figure 53: Factors deemed to make cakes/sweet baked goods healthier, December 2018
- …but companies reducing sugar in cakes will need to reassure consumers on taste
- Lower fat and calories are widely seen as making cakes healthier
- Notable overlap in perceptions of the importance of different health attributes
- All-natural ingredients are especially prized by parents and older women
- Niche brands promote their clean-label credentials
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- Figure 54: Examples of cake launches with all-natural ingredients claims, 2018
Attributes Seen as Worth Paying More for in Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- More than four in 10 would pay more for freshly baked products
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- Figure 55: Attributes seen as worth paying more for in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Opportunities for bakeries to offer products baked to order
- A quarter would pay more for a thick layer of topping/filling
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- Figure 56: Example of premium own-label cake referencing indulgent textures, 2018
- Innovative flavours appeal especially to under-35s
- Use on-trend ingredients to build a reputation for innovation
- Draw inspiration from other product categories and foodservice
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- Figure 57: Examples of cakes/cake bars with ice cream/dessert-inspired flavours, 2018
Behaviours Relating to Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Regional specialities attract strong interest
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- Figure 58: Behaviours relating to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Revivals of historic recipes can align with current food trends
- Emphasis on ingredient provenance would strengthen authentic image
- Ethical attributes can strengthen the appeal of regional speciality products
- Colourful cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
- Foodservice sector offers potential cues for retail products
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- Figure 59: Rainbow croissants from Hotel Café Royal, 2018
- Premium products can benefit from a ‘quality over quantity’ mind-set
- Concerns over ingredients put many parents off kids’ celebration cakes
- Good opportunities for ‘clean label’ products
- ‘No palm oil’ labels should appeal
- Concerns around kids’ celebration cakes boost home baking
- Customisable cakes would seem closer to home-made
- Ethically sourced ingredients would help to reassure consumers
- A third of cake users are baking more at home compared with a year ago
- Multiple factors underpin reported rise in home baking
- Recipe cards and deals would allow supermarkets to harness the home baking trend
- Clean-label products can succeed amid the rise in home baking
- Innovate with flavours and product types to win over shoppers
Attitudes towards Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
- Consumers’ label scrutiny sets challenge for manufacturers
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- Figure 60: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
- Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
- Environmentally friendly packaging would help companies to reassure consumers
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- Figure 61: Examples of cakes/chocolate with compostable packaging, 2018
- Cakes with palm oil put off 44% of users/buyers
- ‘No palm oil’ labels should appeal
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- Figure 62: Iceland highlights absence of palm oil in its mince pies, 2018
- Examples from international markets offer potential cues for UK operators
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- Figure 63: International examples of cake launches flagging up the absence of palm oil, 2018
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 64: Forecast of UK sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
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