Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Mixed trade picture but overall volumes down
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- Figure 1: UK bicycles market, volume forecast, 2013-23
- Figure 2: UK bicycles market, value forecast, 2013-23
- E-bikes are the most dynamic segment of market
- Companies and brands
- Halfords reports slowing revenue growth
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- Figure 3: Estimated market share of UK cycling market value (bicycles, PAC and services), February 2019
- Evans Cycles hits troubled patch
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- Figure 4: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, February 2019
- Pressure mounts on independent bike shops
- The consumer
- Cycling participation has declined since middle of the decade
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- Figure 5: Participation in cycling, 2013-18*
- Safety concerns remain chief obstacle
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- Figure 6: Deterrents to cycling, January 2019
- MTBs still most popular but hybrids/classic bikes have grown slightly
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- Figure 7: Bicycle ownership, December 2017 and January 2019
- One in five cyclists has bought a new bike in past 12 months
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- Figure 8: Purchase of last bicycle, January 2019
- 34% of new bike purchasers prepared to spend £500+
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- Figure 9: Willingness to spend on next bicycle purchase, January 2019
- Younger cyclists put the brakes on spending
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- Figure 10: Bicycle purchase and cycle hire behaviours, January 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- E-bikes still in ‘early adopter’ stage but poised to go mainstream
- The facts
- The implications
- Cycling industry can take a more proactive approach to tackling barriers
- The facts
- The implications
- Indoor exercise trend can offer new revenue streams
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Bike volumes estimated down 3.8% in 2018
- Mixed picture across market
- Unit sales have trended downwards since mid-decade
- Road bike demand has flattened
- E-bike unit sales up 8% in 2018
- No overall increase in cycling but cyclists are riding further
- Gradual infrastructure improvement but government targets will require higher investment
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Market volumes down an estimated 4% in 2018, with values up slightly
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- Figure 11: Trends in bicycle sales, volume and value, 2013-23
- Road bike demand flattens and adventure bikes are latest trend
- E-bikes continue to show strong growth from a low base
- PAC worth more than bicycle sales
- Forecast
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- Figure 12: UK bicycles market, volume forecast, 2013-23
- Figure 13: UK bicycles market, value forecast, 2013-23
Market Background
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- Economy slows further amid Brexit tensions
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- Figure 14: UK average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses)* vs CPI inflation, percentage change year on year, January 2017-January 2019
- Possible further pricing volatility ahead
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- Figure 15: Spot exchange rate, Pound Sterling versus euro and US Dollar, June 2016-February 2019
- Sport England data points to fall in cycling during 2017/18
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- Figure 16: Adult participation in leisure/sporting activity in England, May 2016/17-May 2017/18
- DfT data indicates flat participation levels…
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- Figure 17: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2006-17
- …but rising distances cycled
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- Figure 18: Average distance cycled per cyclist in England, 2006-17
- How safe is cycling?
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- Figure 19: Trends in cyclist accident casualty figures in Great Britain, 2011-17
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- Figure 20: Road accident rates by passenger transport mode, Great Britain, 2017
- UK cycling strategy and investment
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Halfords market share around 19%
- Other bike shops still account for nearly half of market value despite struggling high street
- Halfords cycling revenues have slowed over the past three years
- Trek reports double-digit growth in 2018
- General sports retailers occupy a growing space in cycling market
- Independent bike shops under pressure…
- …but some are re-inventing themselves
- Park Pedal, smart bikes and indoor trainers are among current innovations
Cycling Suppliers and Retailers
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- Overall cycling market share
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- Figure 21: Estimated market share of UK cycling market value (bicycles, PAC and services), February 2019
- Halfords
- Giant, Specialized and Trek
- Other leading suppliers
- Other retailers
- Evans Cycles
- WiggleCRC
- Go Outdoors
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- Figure 22: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, February 2019
- Independent bike shops
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- E-bike shops
- Park Pedal
- Silver cyclists
- Smart bikes
- AR cycling glasses
- Bikepacking trend spawns new products
- Indoor cycling
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cycling participation down for third year in a row
- Safety concern is the leading barrier
- MTB ownership has dipped but still the most commonly-owned bike
- E-bike ownership still only around 6% despite market growth
- One in five cyclists has bought a bike in past 12 months; almost one in three intends to buy in next 12 months
- Interest in upgrading is strong but younger cyclists put the brakes on spending
- Smart trainers and cycling holidays have large growth potential
Cycling Participation
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- Cycling participation has fallen three years in succession
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- Figure 23: Participation in cycling, 2013-18*
- ‘Regular cycling’ also down and gender gap continues to rise
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- Figure 24: Regular participation in cycling (weekly or more often), 2013-18*
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- Figure 25: Any participation in cycling, by gender, 2016-18*
- Core cyclists are men under 45 but many women and over-45s are in the ‘potentials’ group
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- Figure 26: Gender and age profile of current cyclists, January 2019
Purposes of Cycling
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- Commuting up by four percentage points in London
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- Figure 27: Cycling purposes, January 2019
Barriers to Cycling
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- Safety seen as the biggest barrier
- Cost, fitness and lack of cycling companions also seen as deterrents
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- Figure 28: Deterrents to cycling, January 2019
Bicycle Ownership
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- Mountain bikes still dominant but ownership has fallen three percentage points
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- Figure 29: Bicycle ownership, January 2019
- E-bikes still in ‘early adopter’ stage
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- Figure 30: Bicycle ownership by gender, January 2019
Bicycle Purchase
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- One in five cyclists has bought a new bike in past 12 months
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- Figure 31: Purchase of last bicycle, January 2019
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- Figure 32: Purchase of last bicycle by cycling purpose, January 2019
- Intention to purchase an e-bike has grown in past 12 months
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- Figure 33: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019
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- Figure 34: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, by generation of cyclist, January 2019
- One in three parents intends to buy a kids bike in next 12 months
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- Figure 35: Children’s bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019
- Bicycle purchase segmentation groups
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- Figure 36: Willingness to spend on next bicycle purchase, January 2019
Cycling Behaviours & Opportunities
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- Millennial cyclists most likely to cut back on new bike purchase
- Second-hand market and part-exchange are increasingly attractive to cyclists
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- Figure 37: Bicycle purchase and cycle hire behaviours, January 2019
- Bike hire schemes – A help or a hindrance?
- Almost half of cyclists are interested in test-riding an e-bike
- Strong interest in virtual cycling technology
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- Figure 38: Cycling opportunities, January 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 39: UK bicycles market, volume forecast, 2018-23
- Figure 40: UK bicycles market, value forecast, 2018-23
- Forecast methodology
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