Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Despite a tarnished reputation, category makes modest sales gains
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2013-23
- Issues
- Red meats’ bad rap is catching up with it
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- Figure 2: Reasons for decreased consumption, January 2019
- Consumers “aging” out of the category
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- Figure 3: Red meat consumption changes – Less often and more often, by age, January 2019
- The opportunities
- Strike while the iron is hot with 25-44 year olds
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- Figure 4: Red meat consumption changes, by age, January 2019
- Target accepters with protein, nutrients, and exploration
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- Figure 5: Reasons for increased consumption, January 2019
- Focus on clean
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- Figure 6: Red meat claims, January 2019
- Improved packaging, downsizing
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- Figure 7: Red meat features, January 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Marginal gains driven by beef prices
- Healthy economy benefits category; trade, immigration issues threaten it
- Healthy living initiatives triggering shifts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Modest growth for packaged red meat
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Beef dominates diverse category
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Most protein prices are on the rise
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- Figure 12: Changes in food price indices, 2017-18
- Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index
- Spending on food in foodservice catching up to away-from-home expenditures
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- Figure 14: Percent of total consumer expenditures for food at home and away from home, 2010-18*
- Trade and immigration conflicts loom over red meat market
- Interest in meat alternatives picks up steam
- Plant-based
- Cell-based
Market Factors
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- Healthy initiatives still include indulgence
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- Figure 15: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
- Aging population could stifle category
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- Figure 16: Population by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private labels grab more than 2/3 share
- Name brands struggle
- NPD leans toward convenience
- Sustainability, humane animal treatment claims pick up steam
- Brands are leveraging influencers
Company and Brand Sales of Packaged Red Meat
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- Store brands dominate
- Lukewarm performances for larger red meat companies
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- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of packaged red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Store brands “cleaning” up their value proposition
- Through claims
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- Figure 18: Launches of packaged red meat – Private label, by no additives/preservatives, hormone-free, and all natural, 2017-18
- And direct messaging
- Using packaging real estate wisely
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- Figure 19: Purchase intent of packaged red meat, by select private label products, January 2017-January 2019
- Easier and faster preparations
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- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of packaged red meat, by select brands with meal solutions-oriented products, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 21: Launches of packaged red meat, by convenience claim, 2017-18
- Growth in grass-fed
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- Figure 22: Launches of packaged red meat, by grass-fed, 2017-18
- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of packaged red meat, by select brands with grass-fed products, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Canned meat can’t shake the can
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- Figure 24: Purchase intent and select attribute ratings of packaged red meat products, by storage type, January 2017-January 2019
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- Figure 25: Purchase intent of packaged red meat, by select shelf-stable products, January 2017 – January 2019
What’s Next?
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- Ethically and environmentally forward
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- Figure 26: Launches of packaged red meat, by select ethical and sustainable claims, 2017-18
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Red meat maintains its position at the table
- Fresh consumption tops frozen
- Engaging women can provide a boost to the category
- Upgraded packaging
Red Meat Consumption
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- Beef and pork maintain a stronghold in diets
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- Figure 27: Red meat types consumed, January 2019
- Figure 28: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
- Fresh outpaces frozen
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- Figure 29: Red meat types consumed – Beef and pork storage type, January 2019
- Accessible ground beef, ham lead consumption in a deep category
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- Figure 30: Beef and pork cuts consumed, January 2019
- Younger men and fathers consume red meat most frequently
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- Figure 31: Protein consumption frequency – At least once a week – Beef, pork, and other red meat, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
- Parenthood spurs consumption
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- Figure 32: Red meat types consumed – Beef and pork storage type, by parental status by gender, January 2019
- Younger consumers seek options that both limit prep and develop skills
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- Figure 33: Red meat types consumed – Beef and pork storage type, by age, January 2019
- Figure 34: Beef and pork cuts consumed, by age, January 2019
Changes in Red Meat Consumption
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- Red meat consumption remains unchanged for most
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- Figure 35: Red meat consumption changes, January 2019
- Consumers cutting back cite health
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- Figure 36: Reasons for increased consumption, January 2019
- Increased consumption tied to protein, nutrients, and exploration
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- Figure 37: Reasons for increased consumption, January 2019
- Participation growing among men, declining among women
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- Figure 38: Red meat consumption changes, by gender and age and parental status by gender, January 2019
Red Meat Occasions
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- Red meats trail just chicken in occasions
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- Figure 39: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein occasions, September 2018
- Figure 40: Protein occasions, September 2018
- Help consumers manage weekdays
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- Figure 41: Red meat occasions, January 2019
Red Meat Perceptions
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- Focus on indulgence, nutrition to offset health issues
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- Figure 42: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein perceptions, September 2018
- Figure 43: Protein perceptions, September 2018
- Do consumers lean into fresh as the lesser of two evils?
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- Figure 44: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Red meat storage type perceptions, January 2019
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- Figure 45: Red meat storage type perceptions, January 2019
Red Meat Claims
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- Clean and simple labels resonate
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- Figure 46: Red meat claims, January 2019
- Clean and lean will cast a wide net
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- Figure 47: TURF analysis – Red meat claims, January 2019
- Clean reputation comes from different claims across the ages
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- Figure 48: Red meat claims, by gender and age, January 2019
Red Meat Features
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- Packaging can use an upgrade to strengthen freshness, transparency
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- Figure 49: Red meat features, January 2019
- Flavored, smaller portions can extend red meat into new occasions
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- Figure 50: Red meat occasions – Any red meat, by red meat features – Individual-sized packs and flavored, January 2019
- It’s mostly about the packaging
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- Figure 51: TURF analysis – Red meat features, January 2019
- Let the packaging do the talking
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- Figure 52: Red meat features – Select packaging features and claims, by age, January 2019
- Parents looking for assistance from brands during mealtime
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- Figure 53: Red meat features – Flavored and recipe suggestions, by parental status, January 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- TURF Methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 62: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 63: Average retail prices of types of beef and pork in 2018
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