Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales continue to decline as market challenges endure
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, 2013-23
- Department stores fail to capture the attention of younger consumers
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- Figure 2: Select retailers shopped, by all and aged 18-24, July 2018
- Hispanics are unusually disengaged and less persuaded by purchase influencers
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- Figure 3: Purchase influencers, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
- The opportunities
- Black consumer behavior toward fragrance encourages usage
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- Figure 4: Behaviors toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
- Essential oils and aromatherapy create a new fragrance fantasy
- Innovation drives usage among younger 18-24-year-olds
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- Figure 5: Select interest in format innovations – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Fragrances still in decline, though innovations could foster growth
- A functional approach to fragrance positively impacts men’s fragrance
- Consumers are spending less and using other products instead
- Outside factors such as sensitive skin and online retailers could affect fragrance
Market Size and Forecast
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- Fragrance remains in decline; pressure is on for innovation
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2013-23 (fore)
Market Breakdown
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- Women’s fragrance overpowers men’s, even with steeper sales declines
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- Figure 8: Share of fragrance sales, by segment, 2018 (est)
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2013-18 (est)
Market Perspective
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- Fragrance spend has largely remained unchanged
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- Figure 10: Female fragrance spend, Winter 2014-18
- Scented personal care is detrimental to fragrance market
Market Factors
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- Fragrance-free and sensitive skin claims grow in competitive categories
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- Figure 11: Share of launches of select personal care products with both a sensitive skin and fragrance-free claim, Jan 2013-Dec 2017
- Consumers are making more beauty purchases online vs. a year ago
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- Figure 12: Method of shopping, May 2017 and June 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Younger consumers take holistic approach to fragrance
- Fragrance is hit with a number of major struggles
- Fragrance gets real
What’s Working?
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- Attaching themselves to ritual benefits essential oils
- Millennials see custom fragrance as a way to express individuality
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- Figure 13: Waft Custom Fragrance
What’s Struggling?
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- Fragrance is struggling to adjust to a new type of consumer
- Celebrity color cosmetic brands are the new celebrity fragrance
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- Figure 14: Correspondence analysis – Brand perceptions, May 2017
What’s Next?
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- Online fragrance brands will reshape fragrance purchasing
- Fragrance will ditch sex appeal for real
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Traditional formats, younger consumers drive ownership
- Higher priced fragrances saved for occasions, body spray used daily
- Department stores fail to capture the attention of younger consumers
- Familiarity is a key purchase influencer
- Fragrance is an emotional, expressive experience
- Gifting fragrance is meaningful to Black consumers
- Customization and trendy formats are driving innovation
Fragrance Ownership
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- Fragrance users are still interested in traditional perfumes and colognes
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- Figure 15: Fragrance ownership, July 2018
- Younger consumers are key drivers of new, alternative formats
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- Figure 16: Fragrance ownership, by age, July 2018
- Women continue to lead in category engagement
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- Figure 17: Select fragrance ownership, by gender, July 2018
- Hispanics are engaged, but view the category as functional
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- Figure 18: Fragrance ownership, by Hispanic origin, July 2018
Fragrance Usage
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- Consumers are saving perfume usage for outings; body spray is used daily
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- Figure 19: Select fragrance usage, July 2018
- Most consumers have an occasion-based repertoire
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- Figure 20: Repertoire analysis of fragrances used in the past three months, July 2018
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- Figure 21: Repertoire analysis of fragrance ownership, July 2018
Retailers Shopped
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- The fragrance retail market remains highly fragmented
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- Figure 22: Retailers shopped, July 2018
- Younger consumers are skipping department stores for mass merchandisers
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- Figure 23: Select retailers shopped, by age, July 2018
- Women are more likely to receive fragrances as gifts
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- Figure 24: Retailers shopped, by gender, July 2018
- Hispanics approach fragrance differently than other beauty categories
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- Figure 25: Select retailers shopped, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Purchase Influencers
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- Familiar notes drive new fragrance trial; ads less persuasive
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- Figure 26: Purchase influencers, July 2018
- Younger consumers value familiar, but are influenced by appearances
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- Figure 27: Purchase influencers, by age, July 2018
- Men influenced by brand; women trust peers
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- Figure 28: Purchase influencers, by gender, July 2018
- Lack of Hispanic engagement could pose a threat to category growth
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- Figure 29: Purchase influencers, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
- Familiarity of brand and scent could hurt indie players
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- Figure 30: TURF analysis – Purchase influencers, July 2018
- Methodology
Behaviors toward Fragrance
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- Consumers still have an emotional reaction to fragrance
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- Figure 31: Behaviors toward fragrance, July 2018
- Men view fragrance as a category with functional benefits
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- Figure 32: Behaviors toward fragrance, by gender, July 2018
- Younger consumers influenced by older generations
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- Figure 33: Behaviors toward fragrance, by age, July 2018
- Black consumers continue to drive engagement
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- Figure 34: Behaviors toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Attitudes toward Fragrance
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- Smelling a fragrance prior to purchase drives trial
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- Figure 35: Attitudes toward fragrance, July 2018
- Gifting is key to gaining younger consumers’ attention
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- Figure 36: Select attitudes toward fragrance, by age, July 2018
- Black consumers place higher value on fragrance
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- Figure 37: Select attitudes toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Interest in Innovations
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- Similar to skincare, natural ingredients and customization drive interest
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- Figure 38: Interest in innovations, July 2018
- Custom fragrances hit a high note with 25-34-year-olds
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- Figure 39: Select interest in natural and customized scents – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
- Younger consumers value trendy formats and brands with a message
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- Figure 40: Select interest in format innovations – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
- Women driving interest in innovations; men take a backseat
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- Figure 41: Select interest in innovations – Any interest (net)*, by gender, July 2018
- Black consumers over index for every innovation
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- Figure 42: Select interest in innovations – Any interest (net)*, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 44: Total US retail sales of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
- Figure 45: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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- Figure 47: Total US retail sales of women's fragrances, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales of men's fragrances, at current prices, 2013-18
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