Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Onward and upward
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- Figure 1: Total US online retail sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2012-22
- Still less than 10%
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- Figure 2: Percentage of total purchases online, March 2018
- Old habits die young
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- Figure 3: Barriers to purchase, March 2018
- Price can break old habits
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- Figure 4: Price-related attitudes and behaviors toward online shopping, March 2018
- Grocery lags behind
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- Figure 5: Categories purchased online, March 2018
- The opportunities
- Increase shopping frequency among average online shoppers
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- Figure 6: Online shopping frequency, March 2018
- Hone mobile and voice strategies
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- Figure 7: Attitudes and behaviors related to mobile and voice-command devices, March 2018
- Consider the store’s role in the path to purchase
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- Figure 8: Role of online and stores in purchase journey, March 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- E-commerce represents less than 10% of total retail
- Apparel sales quickly shift online
- M-commerce boosts total e-commerce
- Blurred lines between physical and digital
- Digital natives will comprise a larger portion of US
Market Size and Forecast
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- Despite nearly doubling in the past six years, online sales comprise less than 10% of total retail
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and online sales, at current prices, 2012-17
- Online sales set to double from 2017-22
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- Figure 10: Total US online retail sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Total US online retail sales and forecast, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Apparel and accessories leads ecommerce sales
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- Figure 12: E-commerce sales by type of products, 2012 and 2017^
- E-commerce growth fueled by mobile
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- Figure 13: M-commerce’s percentage of total e-commerce sales, 2018-22
- Figure 14: Devices used, March 2018
- Mobile sites favored over apps
Market Perspective
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- Most shopping is not done online
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- Figure 15: Percentage of total purchases online, March 2018
- Blending of physical and digital
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- Figure 16: Attitudes and opinions toward online shopping, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 17: Online shopping behaviors and preferences in relation to in-store, March 2018
Market Factors
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- Nearly everyone shops online
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- Figure 18: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2013-23
- Smartphones gain universal appeal
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- Figure 19: Mobile device ownership, by age, June 2017
- Parents shop more online, but households with kids on the decline
- More ways to jump online
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- Figure 20: Personal and household technology ownership, June 2017
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- Figure 21: Devices used for digital activities, December 2017
- Broadband reaches capacity while US household growth slows
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- Figure 22: Household internet service provider subscriptions, November 2012-17
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- Figure 23: Household internet service provider subscriptions, by household income, October 2016-November 2017
- Higher income generally correlates with higher levels of online engagement
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- Figure 24: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2006-16
- Social media platforms becoming more shoppable
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- Figure 25: Product research and purchases on social media, by gender and age, February 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Amazon…and then everyone else
- Online grocery shopping lags behind
- Voice commerce emerges
- Off to the fulfillment races
What’s Working?
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- No end in sight for Amazon…
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- Figure 26: Top 10 online retailers, 2017
- Figure 27: Percentage of online purchases on Amazon, by repertoire of online shopping frequency, March 2017
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- Figure 28: Use of Amazon and Google when shopping, by age, December 2017
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- Figure 29: Percentage of online purchases on Amazon prime membership and intent to renew, March 2017
- …but it’s not all about Amazon
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- Figure 30: Top 20 retailers with highest 5-year CAGR, 2017
- What’s driving growth?
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- Figure 31: Chewy postcard mailer, April 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Select bookstores, department stores and office supply stores see losses
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- Figure 32: Top 20 retailers showing biggest sales decreases, 2017
- Online grocery still not mainstream
What’s Next?
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- Shopping with your voice
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- Figure 33: Online shopping behavior related to voice command ordering, by select demographics, March 2018
- Augmented reality gets a little bigger
- Beauty
- Furniture
- Apparel
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- Figure 34: Zara’s augmented reality experience, e-mail, April 2018
- Future of fulfillment is fast and furious
- More create-your-own holidays?
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- Figure 35: Wayfair’s Way Day promotional e-mail, April 2018
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- Figure 36: Overstock.com spring black friday e-mail, April 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Three quarters of consumers are average to heavy online shoppers
- More savings, more time
- Physical stores preferred out of habit, to see products
- Marketing doesn’t end with the purchase
- Working with the store, not against it
Online Shopping Frequency
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- Finding the shopping moments
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- Figure 37: Online shopping frequency, March 2018
- A closer look at the online shoppers
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- Figure 38: Repertoire of online shopping frequency, March 2018
- Heavy online shopper profile
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- Figure 39: Heavy online shopper profile, March 2018
- Light to non-online shopper profile
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- Figure 40: Light to non-online shopper profile, March 2018
- Average online shopper profile
Categories Purchased Online
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- Apparel and electronics top categories purchased online
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- Figure 41: Categories purchased online, March 2018
- Over a third of men are buying personal care, household goods online
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- Figure 42: Categories purchased online, by gender and age, March 2018
- Rural shoppers in line with suburbanites and urban dwellers
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- Figure 43: Categories purchased online, by Area, March 2018
Purchase Drivers
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- What drives a consumer to shop online instead of in-store?
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- Figure 44: Purchase drivers, March 2018
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- Figure 45: Purchase drivers, by repertoire of online shopping frequency, March 2018
- Convenience and savings remain universal drivers regardless of category
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- Figure 46: Purchase drivers, by category, March 2018
Path to Purchase
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- Consumers compare prices and read customer reviews before buying
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- Figure 47: Pre-purchase process, March 2018
- Everyone appreciates a good deal
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- Figure 48: Pre-purchase process related to price savings, by household income, March 2018
- Social media provides inspiration for young buyers
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- Figure 49: Pre-purchase process related to social media, by gender and age, March 2018
- Showrooming still occurring
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- Figure 50: Percentage who visit a store before buying online, by age and repertoire of online shopping frequency, March 2018
- More involved categories equate to longer path to purchase
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- Figure 51: Pre-purchase process, by category – Part one, March 2018
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- Figure 52: Pre-purchase process, by category – Part two, March 2018
Barriers to Purchase
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- Why wait, when you can get it now in the store?
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- Figure 53: Barriers to purchase, March 2018
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- Figure 54: Barriers to purchase, by repertoire of online shopping frequency, March 2018
- Barriers can vary by category
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- Figure 55: Barriers to purchase, by category, March 2018
Opportunities for Retailers and Brands
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- Define mobile moments
- Make items shoppable through social media
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- Figure 56: Online shopping behavior related to social media, by gender and age, March 2018
- Become more personalized and personable
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- Figure 57: Online shopping attitudes related to personalization, by select demographics, March 2018
- Maintain transparency, especially at checkout
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- Figure 58: Online shopping behaviors related to price transparency at checkout, by household income, March 2018
- Test tactics to lure cart abandoners back
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- Figure 59: Online shopping behaviors related to cart abandonment, March 2018
- Simplify the returns process
- Consider reordering and/or subscription services
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- Figure 60: Online shopping attitudes related to reordering, by parental status/age of child, March 2018
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- Figure 61: Online shopping attitudes related to online subscription services, by household income, March 2018
- Enhance product descriptions and images
- Improve integration across devices
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- Figure 62: Online shopping attitudes related to cross-device integration, by age, March 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 63: Total US online retail sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 64: E-commerce sales by type of products, 2012-17
- Figure 65: Number of households, 2007-17
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- Figure 66: Households, by presence of related children, 2007-17
- Figure 67: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2012-February 2018
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 68: Overstock.com spring black friday e-mail campaign results, April 2018
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 69: Attitudes and opinions toward online shopping, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 70: Time spent online at home, October 2017-November 2017
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- Figure 71: Average online shopper profile, March 2018
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- Figure 72: Categories purchased online, November 2012-17
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- Figure 73: Websites ordered from, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 74: Online home delivery subscription service, by household income, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 75: Online activities, October 2016 – November 2017
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