Table of Contents
Introduction & Abbreviations
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- INTRODUCTION
- OTHER RELEVANT REPORTS
- Definition
- Abbreviations & TERMS
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- LARGE, FLAT MARKET
- BREAKFAST STILL A KEY MEAL, BUT MANY EAT ON THE GO
- LONG-TERM BENEFIT IN GROWING DIVERSITY OF THE POPULATION, BUT NUMBER OF CHILDREN NOT GROWING
- ANALYZING CEREAL BY SUGAR CONTENT
- KELLOGG, GENERAL MILLS VIE FOR LEADERSHIP
- A HEAVILY ADVERTISED CATEGORY
- SUPERMARKETS DOMINATE RETAIL, BUT OTHER CHANNELS GAINING SHARE
- CONSUMER ATTITUDES REVEAL ROOM FOR CATEGORY DEVELOPMENT
- STRONG NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
- Possibility of future growth
Market Drivers
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- Frequency of breakfast consumption
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- Figure 1 Number of times per week breakfast is eaten, July 2002 “On average, how many days per week do you eat breakfast?”Base: 1,012 adults aged 18+
- COMPETING Breakfast FOods
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- Figure 2 Types of breakfast foods eaten in the household, October 2000-September 2001 and June 2002-May 2003 “Do you or does anyone in your household eat (range of breakfast items)?“Base: 21,452 adults aged 18 + in 2000-01 and 20,802 in 2002-03
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- Figure 3 Breakfast food preferences, July 2002 “On average, what are you most likely to eat for breakfast?“(Multiple responses allowed) Base: 900 adults aged 18+ who eat breakfast
- FLAVOR STILL OUTRANKS HEALTHFULNESS
- TIE-INS WIDELY USED
- Technology
- Pricing issues
- Demographics
- Slight weakening in key age cohort
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- Figure 4 U.S. population projections, by age, and resulting changes in the cereal eating population, 1998-2008
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- Figure 5 Share of households with children, 1998-2008
- Growth in prime ethnic groups
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- Figure 6 Number of U.S. households, by race/ethnicity, 1998-2008
Market Size & Trends
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- Figure 7 Total U.S. retail sales of cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
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Market Segmentation
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- OVERVIEW
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- Figure 8 Sales of cereal, segmented by type and sugar content, 2001 and 2003
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- Graph 1 Sales of cereal, segmented by type and sugar content, 2003
- Cold Cereal
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- Figure 9 Total U.S. retail sales of all cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
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- Graph 2 Sales trends of cereal, segmented by type and sugar content, 1998-2003
- Cold cereal with low sugar content
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- Figure 10 Total U.S. retail sales of low-sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
- Cold cereal with medium sugar content
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- Figure 11 Total U.S. retail sales of medium-sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
- Cold cereal with high sugar content
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- Figure 12 Total U.S. retail sales of high-sugar cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
- Hot Cereal
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- Figure 13 Total U.S. retail sales of hot cereal, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003
Supply Structure
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- Foreign Trade
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- Figure 14 Total U.S imports of cereal* for consumption, customs value, 2000 and 2002
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- Figure 15 Total U.S domestic exports of cereal*, FAS value, 2000 and 2002
- Companies and Brands
- Overview
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- Figure 16 Manufacturer sales of cereal at FDM*, 2001 and 2003
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- Graph 3 Manufacturer sales of cereal at FDM*, 2003
- Cold cereal with low sugar content
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- Figure 17 Brand sales of cereal with low sugar content at FDM*, 2001 and 2003
- Cold cereal with medium sugar content
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- Figure 18 Brand sales of cereal with medium sugar content at FDM*, 2001 and 2003
- Cold cereal with high sugar content
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 20 Brand sales of hot cereal at FDM*, 2001 and 2003
- LEADING COMPANIES
- Kellogg
- General Mills
- PepsiCo
- Kraft
Advertising & Promotion
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- INTRODUCTION
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- Figure 21 Advertising spending, by cereal market leaders, 2002
- COMPANY ACTIVITY
- Kellogg
- General Mills
- Kraft
- PepsiCo
Retail Distribution
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- OVERVIEW
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- Figure 22 U.S. retail sales of cereal, by channel, 2001 and 2003
- SUPERMARKETS
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- Figure 23 U.S. supermarket sales of cereal, 1998-2003
- MASS MERCHANDISERS
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- Figure 24 U.S. mass merchandiser sales of cereal, 1998-2003
The Consumer
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- INTRODUCTION
- HOUSEHOLD USE OF HOT AND COLD CEREAL
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- Figure 25 Household use of cold and hot cereal, by age of householder, June 2002-May 2003Base: 20,802 adults aged 18+
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- Figure 26 Household use of cold and hot cereal, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Does anyone in your household eat…?”Base: 20,802 adults aged 18+
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- Figure 27 Household use of cold and hot cereal, by presence of children, June 2002-May 2003“Does anyone in your household eat…?”Base: 20,802 adults aged 18+
- HOUSEHOLD USE OF CEREAL BASED ON SUGAR CONTENT
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- Figure 28 Household use of cold cereal based on sugar content, by age, June 2002-May 2003Results presented here are based on netted analysis of responses to the question“Brands used by household:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households use cold cereal
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- Graph 4 Household use of cold cereal based on sugar content, by age, June 2002-May 2003
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- Figure 29 Household use of cold cereal based on sugar content, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Brands used by household:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households use cold cereal
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- Figure 30 Household use of cold cereal based on sugar content, by presence of children, June 2002-May 2003“Brands used by household:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households use cold cereal
- FREQUENCY OF HOUSEHOLD USE OF COLD AND HOT CEREAL
- Cold cereal
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- Figure 31 Frequency of use of cold cereal, by age of head of household, June 2002-May 2003“Number of individual portions used in last seven days:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households eat cold cereal
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- Figure 32 Frequency of use of cold cereal, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Number of individual portions used in last seven days:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households eat cold cereal
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- Figure 33 Frequency of use of cold cereal, by presence of children, June 2002-May 2003“Number of individual portions used in last seven days:”Base: 18,920 adults aged 18+ whose households eat cold cereal
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 34 Frequency of use of hot cereal, by age of head of household, June 2002-May 2003“Number of individual portions used in last seven days:”Base: 13,661 adults aged 18+ whose households eat hot cereal
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- Figure 35 Frequency of use of hot cereal, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Number of individual portions used in last seven days:”Base: 13,661 adults aged 18+ whose households eat hot cereal
- USAGE OF CEREAL BY INDIVIDUALS
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- Figure 36 Cereal use, by gender, September 2003Base: 1,008 adults aged 18+
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- Figure 37 Cereal use, by age, September 2003 “Do you ever eat breakfast cereal?”Base: 1,008 adults aged 18+
- TEEN USE OF COLD AND HOT CEREAL
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- Figure 38 Teen use of cold and hot cereal, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“Do you eat… ?”Cold breakfast cerealHot breakfast cerealBase: 2,469 teenagers aged 12-17
- Types of cold cereal eaten by teens
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- Figure 39 Teen use of different types of cold cereal, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Types eaten… ?”Base: 2,058 teenagers aged 12-17 who eat cold cereal
- Frequency of teen use of cold cereal
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- Figure 40 Frequency of use of cold cereal by teens, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“Number of times eaten in the last 30 days:”Base: 2,058 teenagers aged 12-17 who eat cold cereal
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- Figure 41 Frequency of use of cold cereal by teens, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Number of times eaten in the last 30 days:”Base: 2,058 teenagers aged 12-17 who eat cold cereal
- Frequency of teen use of hot cereal
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- Figure 42 Frequency of use of hot cereal by teens, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“Number of times eaten in the last 30 days:”Base: 886 teenagers aged 12-17 who eat hot cereal
- Teens’ influence in purchase of hot or cold cereal
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- Figure 43 Teens’ influence in purchase of hot or cold cereal, June 2002-May 2003“How often do you get to decide which brands are bought?Base: 2,058 teenagers aged 12-17 who eat cold cereal and 886 teenagers who eat hot cereal
- KIDS’ USE OF COLD AND HOT CEREAL
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- Figure 44 Use of cold and hot cereal by kids, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Do you eat…?”Base: 2,476 children aged 6-11
- Types of cold cereal eaten by kids
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- Figure 45 Use of different types of cold cereal by kids, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“Mark the kinds you like best:”Base: 2,359 children aged 6-11 who eat cold cereal
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- Figure 46 Use of different types of cold cereal by kids, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“Mark the kinds you like best:”Base: 2,359 children aged 6-11 who eat cold cereal
- Frequency of kids’ use of cold cereal
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- Figure 47 Frequency of use of cold cereal by kids, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“About how many times did you eat cold cereal in the last month?”Base: 2,359 children aged 6-11 who eat cold cereal
- Frequency of kids’ use of hot cereal
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- Figure 48 Frequency of use of hot cereal by kids, by age and gender, June 2002-May 2003“About how many times did you eat hot cereal in the last month?”Base: 1,528 children aged 6-11 who eat hot cereal
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- Figure 49 Frequency of use of hot cereal by kids, by race/ethnicity, June 2002-May 2003“About how many times did you eat hot cereal in the last month?”Base: 1,528 children aged 6-11 who eat hot cereal
- ATTITUDES TOWARDS CEREAL
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- Figure 50 Attitudes towards cereal, by gender, September 2003Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
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- Figure 51 Attitudes towards cereal, by age, September 2003 “Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements when it comes to breakfast cereal.”Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
- Adult attitudes towards kids’ cereal usage
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- Figure 52 Adult attitudes towards kids’ cereal use, by age, September 2003 “Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements when it comes to breakfast cereal.”Base: 286 adults aged 18+ with children, who ever eat breakfast cereal
- Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients
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- Figure 53 Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients, by gender, September 2003Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
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- Figure 54 Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients, by age, September 2003 “When buying cereal for yourself, which of the following do you consider?”Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
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- Figure 55 Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients, by income, September 2003 “When buying cereal for yourself, which of the following do you consider?”Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
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- Figure 56 Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients, by those who say that they have not found a cereal that they really like, September 2003“You have not found a cereal that you really like,” and“When buying cereal for yourself, which of the following do you consider?”Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
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- Figure 57 Attitudes towards most important cereal nutrients, by those who say that they choose breakfast foods that they can eat on the go, September 2003“You choose breakfast foods that you can eat on the go,” and “When buying cereal for yourself, which of the following do you consider?”Base: 776 adults aged 18+ who ever eat breakfast cereal
- Summary
- Adult usage
- Kids’ and teens’ consumption habits
- Attitudes towards cereal
Future & Forecast
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- FUTURE TRENDS
- Increased competition among leading companies
- Childhood obesity concerns may alter product lines
- Increase in older adults and no growth in the number of kids
- Growing diversity
- More TV and movie tie-ins
- Supermarkets lose more market share
- MARKET FORECAST
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- Figure 58 Forecast of U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, at current and constant prices, 2003-08
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- Graph 5 U.S. retail sales of breakfast cereal, 1998-2003, and Mintel’s forecast, 2003-08
- Figure 59 Forecast of U.S. sales of cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2003-08
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- Figure 60 Forecast of U.S. sales of hot cereal, at current and constant prices, 2003-08
- Forecast Factors
APPENDIX: Trade Associations
APPENDIX: new product DEVELOPMENTS
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- CATEGORY REVIEW
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- Figure 61 Number of breakfast food introductions, 1999-2003
- NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS
- Kraft Foods North America: Post Fruit & Bran Cereal
- General Mills: Looney Tunes Back In Action Cereal
- Kellogg USA: Cracklin’ Oat Bran Take-Aways Cereal
- Kellogg USA: Dr. Suess’ The Cat in the Hat Cereal
- Albertson’s: Cinni-Mini Crunch Cereal
- Nature’s Path Foods: Optimum Zen Organic Cereal
- PepsiCo: Quaker Cap’N Crunch’s Oops! All Berries On the Go Cereal
- General Mills: Cascadian Farm Hearty Morning Organic Cereal
- Atkins Nutritionals: Atkins Morning Start Cereal
- PepsiCo: Quaker Instant Express Oatmeal
- Ukrop’s Super Markets: Ukrop’s Butter Flavor Instant Grits
- Malt-O-Meal: Family Breakfast Size Hot Wheat Cereal
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