Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Modest dollar sales growth amid declining volume sales
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Strong, yet slower participation
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- Figure 2: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
- Consumers have established favorites
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- Figure 3: Frozen treat behaviors, consumption frequency and brand and flavor loyalty, February 2018
- The opportunities
- Young adults, parents are core consumers of frozen treats
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- Figure 4: Frozen treat purchase, by age and parental status, February 2018
- Decadence equates to premium
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- Figure 5: Frozen treat attitudes, premium and indulgent options, February 2018
- Consumers seeking healthy indulgence on their terms
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- Figure 6: Frozen treat attitudes, taste and health, February 2018
- Continue to engage consumers with innovation that excites
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- Figure 7: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dollar sales grow, unit volume struggle
- Most sales come from ice cream, frozen novelties
- Adjacent categories, foodservice sources of competition and inspiration
- Health issues a cause for concern
- Parents a strong target
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category sales surpass $13 billion in 2017
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Ice cream and frozen novelties dominate the category
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- Figure 10: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Multi-outlet unit sales fall in all segments
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- Figure 12: Multi-outlet volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2012-17
- Most sales in category come from supermarkets
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- Figure 13: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Market Perspective
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- Consumers treat themselves with snacks
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- Figure 14: Snacking motivations, March 2017
- Other sweets deliver on indulgence, portability
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- Figure 15: Total US sales of selected food categories, at current prices, 2015-17
- Foodservice offers inspiration, opportunity
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- Figure 16: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select menu item claims, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
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- Figure 17: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select flavors of ingredient, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
Market Factors
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- Health issues in America continue to rise
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- Figure 18: Growth in health issues in the US, obesity and diabetes, 2013-15
- Children, teens influential in category
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- Figure 19: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Child eats and ice cream toppings – Child uses
- Figure 20: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Teen eats and ice cream toppings – Teen uses
- Core consumers impacted by important milestones
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- Figure 21: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2017
- Declining household size forecast to recover
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- Figure 22: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Top companies lose share to smaller category players
- Indulgence, premiumization play well in category
- Internationally inspired, dairy-free innovation
Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- Unilever and Nestlé continue dominance in category
- Massive growth for Eden Creamery and Blue Bell Creameries
- Private label share continues to shrink, “other” brands show growth
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- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Decadence, quality drive sales
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- Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, and sherbet/sorbet/ices, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Reducing guilt
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- Figure 28: Halo Top TV advertisement – “My Territory”
- Figure 29: Arctic Zero TV advertisement – “Get Your Dessert On”
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- Figure 30: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food, eating sweets – Any agree
- Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 32: Purchase intelligence of ice cream and frozen novelties, by presence or lack of claims, low/no/reduced fat, low/no/reduced sugar, low/no/reduced calories, January 2017-February 2018
- Increasing transparency
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- Figure 33: Outshined Fruit Bars TV advertisement – “Choose Outshine”
- Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 35: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by claims, low/no reduced allergen, gluten-free, GMO-free, and hormone-free, 2014-17
- Smaller portions
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- Figure 36: Blue Bunny TV Advertisement – “In the House”
- Figure 37: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, pint or snack size, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 38: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, cups/tubs, by total pack size, 2014-17
- Social media inspires passion for frozen treat brands
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- Figure 39: Average passion scores, by select ice cream brands, March 2017-18
What’s Struggling?
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- Declining sub-segments suffer from lack of innovation, indulgence
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- Figure 40: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, ice milk/frozen dairy desserts, and ice pop novelties, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 41: Launches of frozen yogurt, ice pops, and complete desserts, 2014-17
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- Figure 42: Purchase intelligence of select frozen yogurt, ice pop, and ice milk/frozen dairy products, January 2017-February 2018
- Store brands struggle to stand out
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- Figure 43: Multi-outlet sales of private label ice cream and frozen novelties, by segments, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 44: Purchase intent of select private label products
What’s Next?
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- Dairy-free options
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- Figure 45: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by dairy-free, 2014-17
- Global inspiration
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- Figure 46: My/Mo online video – “Ripe Strawberry MyMo Mochi Ice Cream”
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Ice cream enjoys nearly universal penetration
- Consumers stick to what they know, enjoy best
- Premium and decadence go hand-in-hand
- BFY options offer less guilt, less taste
- Widespread interest in category innovation
Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Most consumers indulge with ice cream
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- Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
- Habits don’t limit participation
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- Figure 48: Repertoire of frozen treat purchase, February 2018
- Room to increase consumption frequency
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- Figure 49: Frozen treat purchase frequency, February 2018
- Younger consumers buy across products
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- Figure 50: Frozen treat purchase, by age, February 2018
- Children influence parents’ diverse selections
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- Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2018
- Large households enjoy portioned options
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- Figure 52: Frozen treat purchase, by household size, February 2018
Frozen Treat Behaviors
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- Category participants grounded in tradition
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- Figure 53: Frozen treat behaviors, February 2018
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- Figure 54: Frozen treat behaviors, by frozen treat behaviors, total and eat them once a week, February 2018
- Older consumers loyal, younger consumers still experimental
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- Figure 55: Frozen treat behaviors, by gender and age, February 2018
- Parents seek variety
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- Figure 56: Frozen treat behaviors, by parental status, February 2018
Emotional Connection to Frozen Treats
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- Despite seasonality, emotional connections occur year-round
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- Figure 57: Emotional connection to frozen treats, February 2018
- Heavy users seek variety with consistency, emotions drive impulse purchases
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- Figure 58: Frozen treat behaviors, by emotional connection to frozen treats, eat them the same amount year-round and eat them more during emotional low/high points, February 2018
- Men more consistent in consumption of frozen treats
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- Figure 59: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by gender, February 2018
- Younger generations emotional, nostalgic about frozen treats
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- Figure 60: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by generation, February 2018
Frozen Treat Attributes
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- Clear overlaps between decadence and quality, healthfulness and permissibility
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- Figure 61: Correspondence analysis – Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
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- Figure 62: Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
- Restaurant brands appeal to younger consumers
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- Figure 63: Frozen treat attributes, restaurant brand, by age, February 2018
- Packaging is paramount for parents
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- Figure 64: Frozen treat attributes, high-quality packaging and small packaging size, by age, February 2018
Frozen Treat Attitudes
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- Frozen novelty format ideal for snacking
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- Figure 65: Frozen treat attitudes, February 2018
- High-quality, decadent frozen treats tempting to younger men
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- Figure 66: Frozen treat attitudes, by gender and age, February 2018
- Parents enjoy convenient, premium, and indulgent options
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- Figure 67: Frozen treat attitudes, by parental status, February 2018
Frozen Treat Innovation
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- Significant interest in category innovation
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- Figure 68: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
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- Figure 69: Frozen treat innovation, by frozen treat types, February 2018
- Younger consumers, parents interested across innovation features
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- Figure 70: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by generation, February 2018
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- Figure 71: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by parental status, February 2018
- Hispanics and Asian consumers want variety
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- Figure 72: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 81: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 86: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
- Figure 87: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 88: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 89: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 90: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 91: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 93: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 94: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet, sorbet, ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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