Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Consumers plan to cook at home more in 2018
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- Figure 1: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, “cook at home,” consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
- Restaurant sales are growing, but individual restaurants are struggling
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- Figure 2: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
- The opportunities
- Casual is the name of the game in 2018
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- Figure 3: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
- Millennials are not giving up on chains
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- Figure 4: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
- Consumers are motivated by dining out socially
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- Figure 5: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, September 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- FSRs are growing at a slower rate than LSRs, but still serve a core purpose
- Natural disasters impact tourism and employment across the country
- Nearly half of consumers consider themselves cooking enthusiasts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Restaurant sales continue to increase despite restaurants feeling the pressure
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- Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at inflation prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- LSRs are taking a slight lead from FSRs
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- Figure 9: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, by current prices, 2017
- The fast casual segment is not immune to restaurant competition
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- Figure 10: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
- FSRs still desired for specific occasions
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- Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
Market Perspective
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- C-stores get competitive for the breakfast hour
- A state of cooking at home in America
Market Factors
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- Consumers are overloaded by restaurant choices
- Natural disaster recovery hits the restaurant industry
Key Trends – What You Need to Know
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- Pop culture
- Cashless dining
- Casual dining chains continue to struggle
What’s Working?
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- The power of pop culture
- Asian flavors and ingredients are a cuisine to watch
- Beverage innovation shakes things up on the menu
What’s Struggling?
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- Mainstream casual dining chains continue to lose relevancy
- As healthy food becomes more craveable, the spectrum of health widens for foodservice operators
What’s Next?
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- No cash restaurants
- Consumer interest in the food supply chain gains steam
- Social media moves beyond pretty pictures of food
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Breweries and coffee/tea shops are segments to watch in 2018
- Family style meals drive interest
- Convenience drives chain restaurant visitation
Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurant Visitation
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- Visitation to FSRs and LSRs nearly equal
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- Figure 12: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, September 2017
- The affordability and convenience of LSRs is a key priority for iGens
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- Figure 13: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, by generation, September 2017
- QSRs are finding their core looking ahead to 2018
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- Figure 14: Restaurant visitation, fast food versus fast casual, September 2017
- Gourmet food halls are a niche dining sector
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- Figure 15: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2017
- Fast casuals cater to a middle- and upper-class consumer
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- Figure 16: Restaurant visitation, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
- Breweries are a competitive force for traditional restaurants
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- Figure 17: Local bar/brewery visitation, by HH income, gender and age, September 2017
- Coffee/tea shops look beyond beverages
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- Figure 18: Coffee/tea shop visitation, by age and HH income, September 2017
Chain and Independent Restaurant Visitation
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- Chain restaurants drive stronger visitation than independent restaurants
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- Figure 19: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, September 2017
- Fast casuals have a near equal divide among independent and chain restaurant diners
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- Figure 20: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by restaurant segment, September 2017
- Millennials still value chain restaurants
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- Figure 21: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
- Black and Hispanic consumers skew toward chain restaurants
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- Figure 22: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by race, September 2017
- The Northeast leads in independent restaurant visitation
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- Figure 23: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by region, September 2017
Motivation for Visiting Chains versus Independents
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- Consumers value menu familiarity at chains and menu variety at independents
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- Figure 24: Chain restaurant motivations, September 2017
- Figure 25: Independent restaurant motivations, September 2017
- Consumers don’t have negative associations toward chain restaurants
- Menu variety and innovation is a key area of importance for independent restaurants
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- Figure 26: TURF analysis – Independent restaurant motivators, September 2017
- Men are not driven to chains for trendy new flavors
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- Figure 27: Chain restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
- Women enjoy supporting local businesses, men value unique beverages
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- Figure 28: Independent restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
- Parents value convenience and affordability when dining at chain restaurants
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- Figure 29: Chain restaurant motivations, by parents, September 2017
- Value deals are important for iGens, Millennials want a seamless ordering experience at chain restaurants
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- Figure 30: Chain restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
- Unique menu items are more valuable to Millennials than high-quality ingredients at independent restaurants
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- Figure 31: Independent restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
- Urban environments are working to create a stronger local spirit
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- Figure 32: Independent restaurant motivations, by residential location, September 2017
Planned Dining Out Behavior in 2018
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- Consumers want to cook at home more in 2018
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- Figure 33: Planned dining out behavior, September 2017
- Younger consumers plan to use mobile ordering in 2018 more than delivery
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- Figure 34: Planned dining out behavior, consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
- Parents plan to reserve dining out for the weekend
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- Figure 35: Planned dining out behavior, plan to do more, by parents, September 2017
- Hispanics are a core snacking demographic
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- Figure 36: Planned dining out behavior, ”Plan to visit a specialty snack shop,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
Attitudes towards Dining Out
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- Dinner is a key meal for dining out
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- Figure 37: Dining out attitudes, September 2017
- Most consumers are not overwhelmed by food trends
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- Figure 38: Dining out attitudes, by gender, September 2017
- Millennials value when restaurants focus on one type of dish done well
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- Figure 39: Dining out attitudes, by generation, September 2017
- Figure 40: Dining out attitudes, by urban and suburban Millennials, September 2017
Menu Interest by Restaurant Segments
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- Family style meals make a resurgence
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- Figure 41: Menu interest by restaurant segment, September 2017
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- Figure 42: Interest in family meals at FSRs, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
- Consumers want more packaged snacks at coffee/tea shops
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- Figure 43: Interest in packaged snack options at coffee/tea shops, by age and HH income, September 2017
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- Figure 44: Menu interest by restaurant segment, by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
- Small plates get shifted on menus, while meatless options continue to grow
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- Figure 45: Growth and decline of menu dishes by restaurant segment, Q3 2015-Q3 2017
2018 Restaurant Trend Interest
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- Consumers want more casual restaurant atmospheres in 2018
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- Figure 46: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
- Older consumers are not interested in new trends, but they still care about food
- iGens are a pop culture demographic
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- Figure 47: Restaurant trend interest, by generation, September 2017
- Lower income consumers value the grocerant concept
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- Figure 48: Restaurant trend interest, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- A note on socioeconomic levels
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 50: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 51: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at inflation prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 52: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 53: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at Inflation prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Infegy Methodology
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 54: Dining out attitudes, rebased by fine dining consumers, September 2017
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Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 55: Table – TURF analysis – Independent motivators, September 2017
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