Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
Last saved by: HTTP server

Dining Out in 2018 - US - December 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Consumers plan to cook at home more in 2018
Figure 1: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, “cook at home,” consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
Restaurant sales are growing, but individual restaurants are struggling
Figure 2: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2012-22
The opportunities
Casual is the name of the game in 2018
Figure 3: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
Millennials are not giving up on chains
Figure 4: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
Consumers are motivated by dining out socially
Figure 5: Planned dining out behavior in 2018, September 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
FSRs are growing at a slower rate than LSRs, but still serve a core purpose
Natural disasters impact tourism and employment across the country
Nearly half of consumers consider themselves cooking enthusiasts
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Restaurant sales continue to increase despite restaurants feeling the pressure
Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places* at inflation prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
LSRs are taking a slight lead from FSRs
Figure 9: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, by current prices, 2017
The fast casual segment is not immune to restaurant competition
Figure 10: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for limited service restaurants and other eating places* at current prices, 2012-22
FSRs still desired for specific occasions
Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
C-stores get competitive for the breakfast hour
A state of cooking at home in America
MARKET FACTORS 
Consumers are overloaded by restaurant choices
Natural disaster recovery hits the restaurant industry
KEY TRENDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Pop culture
Cashless dining
Casual dining chains continue to struggle
WHAT’S WORKING?
The power of pop culture
Asian flavors and ingredients are a cuisine to watch
Beverage innovation shakes things up on the menu
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Mainstream casual dining chains continue to lose relevancy
As healthy food becomes more craveable, the spectrum of health widens for foodservice operators
WHAT’S NEXT?
No cash restaurants
Consumer interest in the food supply chain gains steam
Social media moves beyond pretty pictures of food
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Breweries and coffee/tea shops are segments to watch in 2018
Family style meals drive interest
Convenience drives chain restaurant visitation
FULL-SERVICE AND LIMITED-SERVICE RESTAURANT VISITATION
Visitation to FSRs and LSRs nearly equal
Figure 12: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, September 2017
The affordability and convenience of LSRs is a key priority for iGens
Figure 13: Restaurant visitation, any FSR and Any LSR, by generation, September 2017
QSRs are finding their core looking ahead to 2018
Figure 14: Restaurant visitation, fast food versus fast casual, September 2017
Gourmet food halls are a niche dining sector
Figure 15: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2017
Fast casuals cater to a middle- and upper-class consumer
Figure 16: Restaurant visitation, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
Breweries are a competitive force for traditional restaurants
Figure 17: Local bar/brewery visitation, by HH income, gender and age, September 2017
Coffee/tea shops look beyond beverages
Figure 18: Coffee/tea shop visitation, by age and HH income, September 2017
CHAIN AND INDEPENDENT RESTAURANT VISITATION 
Chain restaurants drive stronger visitation than independent restaurants
Figure 19: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, September 2017
Fast casuals have a near equal divide among independent and chain restaurant diners
Figure 20: Chain versus independent restaurant visitation, by restaurant segment, September 2017
Millennials still value chain restaurants
Figure 21: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by generation, September 2017
Black and Hispanic consumers skew toward chain restaurants
Figure 22: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by race, September 2017
The Northeast leads in independent restaurant visitation
Figure 23: Chain and independent restaurant visitation, by region, September 2017
MOTIVATION FOR VISITING CHAINS VERSUS INDEPENDENTS
Consumers value menu familiarity at chains and menu variety at independents
Figure 24: Chain restaurant motivations, September 2017
Figure 25: Independent restaurant motivations, September 2017
Consumers don’t have negative associations toward chain restaurants
Menu variety and innovation is a key area of importance for independent restaurants
Figure 26: TURF analysis – Independent restaurant motivators, September 2017
Men are not driven to chains for trendy new flavors
Figure 27: Chain restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
Women enjoy supporting local businesses, men value unique beverages
Figure 28: Independent restaurant motivations, by gender, September 2017
Parents value convenience and affordability when dining at chain restaurants
Figure 29: Chain restaurant motivations, by parents, September 2017
Value deals are important for iGens, Millennials want a seamless ordering experience at chain restaurants
Figure 30: Chain restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
Unique menu items are more valuable to Millennials than high-quality ingredients at independent restaurants
Figure 31: Independent restaurant motivations, by generation, September 2017
Urban environments are working to create a stronger local spirit
Figure 32: Independent restaurant motivations, by residential location, September 2017
PLANNED DINING OUT BEHAVIOR IN 2018
Consumers want to cook at home more in 2018
Figure 33: Planned dining out behavior, September 2017
Younger consumers plan to use mobile ordering in 2018 more than delivery
Figure 34: Planned dining out behavior, consumers aged 18-34, September 2017
Parents plan to reserve dining out for the weekend
Figure 35: Planned dining out behavior, plan to do more, by parents, September 2017
Hispanics are a core snacking demographic
Figure 36: Planned dining out behavior, ”Plan to visit a specialty snack shop,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARDS DINING OUT
Dinner is a key meal for dining out
Figure 37: Dining out attitudes, September 2017
Most consumers are not overwhelmed by food trends
Figure 38: Dining out attitudes, by gender, September 2017
Millennials value when restaurants focus on one type of dish done well
Figure 39: Dining out attitudes, by generation, September 2017
Figure 40: Dining out attitudes, by urban and suburban Millennials, September 2017
MENU INTEREST BY RESTAURANT SEGMENTS
Family style meals make a resurgence
Figure 41: Menu interest by restaurant segment, September 2017
Figure 42: Interest in family meals at FSRs, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
Consumers want more packaged snacks at coffee/tea shops
Figure 43: Interest in packaged snack options at coffee/tea shops, by age and HH income, September 2017
Figure 44: Menu interest by restaurant segment, by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2017
Small plates get shifted on menus, while meatless options continue to grow
Figure 45: Growth and decline of menu dishes by restaurant segment, Q3 2015-Q3 2017
2018 RESTAURANT TREND INTEREST
Consumers want more casual restaurant atmospheres in 2018
Figure 46: Restaurant trend interest, September 2017
Older consumers are not interested in new trends, but they still care about food
iGens are a pop culture demographic
Figure 47: Restaurant trend interest, by generation, September 2017
Lower income consumers value the grocerant concept
Figure 48: Restaurant trend interest, by socioeconomic status, September 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
A note on socioeconomic levels
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service and limited-service restaurants and other eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 50: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 51: Total us revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants at inflation prices, 2012-22
Figure 52: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 53: Total US revenues and forecast for limited-service restaurants and other eating places, at Inflation prices, 2012-22
APPENDIX – INFEGY METHODOLOGY
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 54: Dining out attitudes, rebased by fine dining consumers, September 2017
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 55: Table – TURF analysis – Independent motivators, September 2017

This report is supplied in accordance with Mintel's terms and conditions.  
© Mintel Group Ltd.