Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Modest growth in category
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2016-17
- Sales of processed poultry fall
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- Figure 2: MULO sales of processed poultry, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Competition from other proteins
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- Figure 3: Changes in consumer food price indexes, fish and seafood, beef and veal, pork, other meats, and poultry, 2014-16
- Engagement in the category already nearly universal
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- Figure 4: Meat consumption frequency, at least once a week, September 2017
- The opportunities
- Poultry swap-ins may help grow category
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- Figure 5: Poultry behavior, September 2017
- Category adaptability offers something for everyone, every need
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- Figure 6: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
- Wide range of uses offered by diverse category
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- Figure 7: Poultry purchase, any poultry formats, September 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category flat, sustained by chicken
- Competitive protein sources
- Poultry price recovery expected
- Poultry offers something to everyone
Market Size and Forecast
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- Modest growth of poultry
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Massive chicken segment drives growth in category
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Total US market share of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2017
- Supermarkets continue to dominate in sales of poultry
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- Figure 12: Total US market share of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Market Perspective
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- Red meat prices recover as health concerns mount
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- Figure 13: Changes in consumer food price indexes, meats, 2013-18
- Overfishing leads to drop in fish and shellfish prices
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- Figure 14: Changes in consumer food price indexes, fish and seafood, 2013-18
- Meat alternatives, plant-based protein compete against animal proteins
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- Figure 15: Consumption, by meat alternatives, October 2016
- Chicken appears more on restaurant brunch, breakfast menus
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- Figure 16: Chicken ingredients on brunch and breakfast menus, by menu incidence, Q2 2015 and Q2 2017
- Figure 17: Brunch menu items with chicken ingredients, by menu incidence change, Q2 2015 and Q2 2017
Market Factors
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- Poultry prices forecast to rebound
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- Figure 18: Changes in consumer food price indexes, poultry, 2013-18
- Foodborne outbreaks, scandals a cause for concern
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- Figure 19: Number of foodborne outbreaks in the US, chicken and turkey, 2010 and 2015
- Poultry’s versatility and variety universally appealing
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- Figure 20: Grocery retailer preferences, poultry, September 2017
- Reduction of households with children
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- Figure 21: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
- Growth of Hispanic population expected to continue
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- Figure 22: US population, by Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading chicken companies struggle, top turkey sellers grow
- Free-from claims increase health, premium perception
- Further processed poultry sales stumble
- Poultry burgers gain thanks to health, convenience, and indulgence
Company and Brand Sales of Poultry
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- Tyson dominates poultry category
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Top chicken brands face decline in sales
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- Figure 24: Online video – “American Made: Is Tyson Chicken Produced in the USA?” – Tyson Foods
- Figure 25: MULO market share of chicken, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of chicken, by growing brands, Harvestland, Just Bare, and Tyson naturals, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Jennie-O gobbles up over third of turkey sales
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- Figure 27: Online video – “Jennie-O Make The Switch Tour 2016 – Seattle” – Jennie-O
- Figure 28: MULO market share of turkey, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of turkey, by growing brands, Shady Brook Farms, Butterball, and Jennie O, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Other poultry sales driven by Tyson
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- Figure 30: MULO market share of other poultry, by leading brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 31: MULO sales of other poultry, by growing brands, D’Artagnan Inc, Maple Leaf Farms, and Tyson, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Better birds
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- Figure 32: Poultry product launches, by all natural product and hormone-free, 2014-17*
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- Figure 33: TV Advertisement – “Free Range” - Perdue
- Figure 34: TV Advertisement – “Old MacGimmik” – Sanderson Farms
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- Figure 35: TV Advertisement – “Truth About Chicken – Labels” – Sanderson Farms
- Convenience and versatility
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- Figure 36: Poultry product launches, by convenience claims, 2014-17*
- Easy-to-use formats and packaging
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- Figure 37: TV advertisement – “Turkey Wrestling” – Jennie-O
- Simple and rapid recipes
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- Figure 38: Online video – “Easy Chicken Alfredo - Sauté Ready” – Foster Farms
- Figure 39: Online Video – “Jennie-O Turkey Chili Con Queso” – Jennie-O
- Seasoned and flavored poultry
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- Figure 40: Purchase intent, by seasoned/flavored and unseasoned/unflavored poultry, September 2016 – September 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Concerns about processed poultry
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- Figure 41: TV advertisement – “What’s in a Tyson Fun Nugget?” – Tyson Foods
- Figure 42: MULO sales of processed poultry, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Next?
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- Growing them slow
- Poultry burgers
- Tastes like chicken
- No poultry, no problem
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Strong penetration, frequent consumption keeps the bird in flight
- Ease, cost-effectiveness, and versatility keep the category hot
- Occasion, need drives format choice
Poultry Purchase
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- Poultry’s universal purchase driven by chicken
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- Figure 43: Poultry purchase, any poultry and segments, September 2017
- Fresh bought more than frozen
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- Figure 44: Poultry purchase, chicken and turkey formats, September 2017
- Parents purchase across poultry segments, formats
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- Figure 45: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by parental status, September 2017
- Figure 46: Poultry purchase, any poultry formats, by parental status, September 2017
- Convenience important in men’s purchase of poultry
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- Figure 47: Poultry purchase, chicken and turkey formats, by gender, September 2017
- Hispanics heavy purchasers of all poultry types
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- Figure 48: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2017
- Millennials opt for convenient chicken formats, Boomers prefer parts
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- Figure 49: Poultry purchase, chicken formats, by age, September 2017
- Younger consumers are early adopters of turkey
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- Figure 50: Poultry purchase, turkey formats, by age, September 2017
Poultry Behavior
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- Healthfulness of poultry appealing
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- Figure 51: Poultry behavior, September 2017
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- Figure 52: Poultry purchase, poultry segments, by poultry behavior, September 2017
- Older consumers use poultry to eat healthier, young adults for its value
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- Figure 53: Poultry behavior, by age, September 2017
- Household income drives reasons for poultry substitution
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- Figure 54: Poultry behavior, by household income, September 2017
Poultry Attributes
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- Poultry characteristics, free-from claims influential to purchase
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- Figure 55: Poultry attributes, any rank, September 2017
- Poultry attributes sought for vary by format
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- Figure 56: Poultry purchase, processed and frozen formats, by poultry attributes, characteristics, any rank, September 2017
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- Figure 57: Poultry purchase, unprocessed and fresh formats, by poultry attributes, transparency, any rank, September 2017
- Women seek clean labeling, men more likely to place importance on convenience
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- Figure 58: Poultry attributes, any rank, by gender, September 2017
- Free-range poultry, convenient options appeal to younger consumers
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- Figure 59: Poultry attributes, any rank, by age, September 2017
Poultry Attitudes
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- Poultry format, features outweigh brand
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- Figure 60: Poultry attitudes, September 2017
- Freshness important to Hispanic and Black consumers
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- Figure 61: Poultry attitudes, fresh poultry, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2017
- Club value limited to higher-income households
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- Figure 62: Poultry attitudes, warehouse clubs offer better value on poultry than other food stores, by household income, September 2017
Meat Consumption Frequency
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- Poultry is most widely consumed protein source
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- Figure 63: Meat consumption frequency, any consumption, September 2017
- Chicken dominates poultry consumption
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- Figure 64: Meat consumption frequency, at least once a week, September 2017
- Younger men are core consumers, but consumption frequency of turkey lags behind
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- Figure 65: Meat consumption frequency, poultry types, 3 or more times a week, by gender and age, September 2017
- Chicken a weekly household staple
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- Figure 66: Meat consumption frequency, poultry types, at least once a week, by gender and age, September 2017
Poultry Sentiment
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- Poultry delivers on affordability, healthfulness, and versatility
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- Figure 67: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
- Versatility of poultry appeals to women
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- Figure 68: Poultry sentiment, by gender, September 2017
- Older consumers value poultry’s affordability, variety of uses
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- Figure 69: Poultry sentiment, by age, September 2017
- Non-parents enjoy poultry’s affordability, parents find it easy to cook and save for later
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- Figure 70: Poultry sentiment, September 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 73: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 79: MULO sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 80: MULO sales of turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 81: MULO sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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