Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dollar sales of beer slow
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
- A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
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- Figure 2: Change in beer consumption, August 2017
- Leading light beer segment experiences sharp declines, craft slows
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- Figure 3: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20 (fore)
- The opportunities
- Flavored launches grow
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- Figure 4: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
- Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
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- Figure 5: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
- A quarter of beer drinkers take pride in trying different kinds of beer
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- Figure 6: Beer statements – Identification, August 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Beer sales slow
- Light beer continues to lead volume sales, but sees declines
- Craft continues to grow, but at a slower pace
- Beer continues to lead alcohol consumption
- Category struggles with poor perception of taste
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales of beer slow
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Light beer continues to lead volume sales of beer, but sees declines
- Volume sales of imported beer grow by a third from 2012-17
- Super-premium/premium segment sees declines
- Craft continues to grow, but at a slower pace
- Volume sales in the popular beer segment decline by 16% from 2012-17
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- Figure 12: Share of volume sales of beer, by segment, 2017 (est)
- Figure 13: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20 (fore)
- Success of hard cider sours
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- Figure 14: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16
Market Perspective
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- Volume sales of alcohol outpace sales of beer
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- Figure 15: Total US volume sales of beverage alcohol 2012-16
- Figure 16: Total US volume sales of beverage alcohol 2012-16
- Vast majority of alcohol consumption is off-premise
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- Figure 17: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2012-16
- Figure 18: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2012-16
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- Figure 19: US volume sales of beer and FMBs, by channel, 2012 and 2016
- Figure 20: US volume sales of beer and FMBs, by channel, 2012-16
- Beer continues to lead alcohol consumption
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- Figure 21: Alcohol consumption, August 2017
- The majority of drinkers drink 2-5 drink types
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- Figure 22: Repertoire of alcohol consumption – Any drink, August 2017
- 45% of respondents who only drink one type of alcohol drink beer
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- Figure 23: Repertoire of alcohol consumption – Any drink, by 1 type consumed, August 2017
- Beer still leads as the easy option
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- Figure 24: Correspondence analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, August 2017
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- Figure 25: Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, August 2017
- Beer has a strong association with refreshment…
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- Figure 26: Attitudes toward beer, March 2017
- …but struggles with poor perception of taste
- Craft beer performs slightly better in terms of flavor
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- Figure 27: Attitudes toward craft beer, March 2017
Market Factors
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- As acquisitions continue, the craft industry doubles down on the divide
- 42% of US adults are currently trying to lose weight
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- A-B InBev commands largest share of MULO sales
- Constellation sees strong gains at MULO
- Flavored launches grow
- Cans gain ground on bottles
Company and Brand Sales of Beer
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- A-B InBev commands largest share of MULO sales
- Sales of beer by company
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- Figure 28: Share of beer sales, by company, 52 weeks ending Jul 9, 2017
- Figure 29: MULO sales of beer and craft beer, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Imported beer sees strong growth
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of domestic and imported beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Flavored launches grow
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- Figure 31: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
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- Figure 32: Cider launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
- Cans continue to see strong growth
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- Figure 33: Beer launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
- In their words
What’s Struggling?
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- MULO sales of cider decline by 7%
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- Figure 34: MULO sales of alcoholic cider, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Lager menuings lose share to IPAs and bold flavor beers
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- Figure 35: Leading beer styles featured on restaurant menus, Q2 2016-Q2 2017
What’s Next?
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- IPAs have opened the door for a wider focus on hops
- Unfiltered/unpasteurized beer could convey natural cues
- Sours hit a sweet spot
- Encouraging the use of beer in cocktails
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 61% of beer drinkers are men
- A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
- Half of beer drinkers drink craft offerings
- Brand is the leading factor in beer choice
- Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
Who’s Drinking Beer?
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- 61% of beer drinkers are men
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- Figure 36: Share of alcohol consumption, by gender, August 2017
- 50% of beer drinkers are between the ages of 22-44
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- Figure 37: Share of alcohol consumption, by age, August 2017
- A strong perception of affordability allows beer to appeal to lower earning HHs
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- Figure 38: Share of alcohol consumption, by HH income, August 2017
Change in Beer Consumption
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- A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
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- Figure 39: Change in beer consumption, August 2017
- Highest percentage of consumers looking to reduce calories
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- Figure 40: Reasons for drinking less beer, August 2017
- Craft and flavored options help grow beer consumption
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- Figure 41: Reasons for drinking more beer, August 2017
Types of Beer Consumed
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- Domestic v. import
- A slightly higher percentage of consumers drink domestic beer
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- Figure 42: Types of beer consumed – Domestic v. imported, August 2017
- Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to drink imports
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- Figure 43: Types of beer consumed – Domestic v. imported, by Hispanic origin, August 2017
- Craft
- Half of beer drinkers drink craft beer
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- Figure 44: Types of beer consumed – Craft, August 2017
- Three quarters of “true craft” drinkers also drink “craft-style” beer
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- Figure 45: Types of beer consumed – Craft, by types of beer consumed, August 2017
- Younger drinkers open to craft-style options
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- Figure 46: Types of beer consumed – Craft, by age, August 2017
- Other attributes
- Less than a third of beer drinkers are drinking light beer
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- Figure 47: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, August 2017
- Women are strong targets for flavored beer
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- Figure 48: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, by gender, August 2017
- Flavored options find strong appeal among younger drinkers
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- Figure 49: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, by age, August 2017
Important Factors When Choosing a Beer
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- Brand is the leading factor in beer choice
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- Figure 50: Important factors when choosing a beer, August 2017
- Three quarters of “true craft” drinkers are driven by style
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- Figure 51: Important factors when choosing a beer, by craft consumption, August 2017
- Younger consumers are driven by low price, open to suggestions
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- Figure 52: Share of beer purchase, by age, Spring 2017
- Figure 53: Important factors when choosing a beer, by age, August 2017
- Lower income earners are strongly driven by price
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- Figure 54: Share of beer purchase, by HH income, Spring 2017
- Figure 55: Important factors when choosing a beer, by HH income, August 2017
Beer Statements
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- Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
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- Figure 56: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
- In their words
- Brand plays a slightly larger role in identification than style
- Beer drinkers exhibit some brand loyalty
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- Figure 57: Beer consumption, by beer consumption, Spring 2017
- Figure 58: Beer statements – Identification, August 2017
- “True craft” drinkers have high opinions of small brand, but don’t begrudge large companies
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- Figure 59: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
- Product trial resonates with craft drinkers; style also finds appeal
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- Figure 60: Beer statements – Identification, by craft beer consumption, August 2017
- 35% of 25-34s take pride in product trial
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- Figure 61: Beer statements – Identification, by age, August 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 62: Total US volume sales of light beer, 2012-22
- Figure 63: Total US volume sales of super-premium and premium beer, 2012-22
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- Figure 64: Total US volume sales of imported beer, 2012-22
- Figure 65: Total US volume sales of craft beer, 2012-22
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- Figure 66: Total US volume sales of popular beer, 2012-22
- Figure 67: Total US volume sales of ice beer, 2012-22
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- Figure 68: Total US volume sales of malt liquor, 2012-22
- Figure 69: US volume sales of domestic beer, by form, 2012-16
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 70: Sales of beer, by company, 2016 and 2017
- Figure 71: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16
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- Figure 72: Leading beer styles featured on restaurant menus, Q2 2016-Q2 2017
- Figure 73: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2012-17*
- Figure 74: Cider launches, by leading claims, 2012-17*
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- Figure 75: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
- Figure 76: Cider launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
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- Figure 77: Beer launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
- Figure 78: Cider launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 79: Regular domestic beer consumption (not light/low-calorie), 2013-17
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- Figure 80: Brands of regular domestic beer (not light/low-calorie) consumed, 2013-17
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- Figure 81: Imported beer consumption, 2013-17
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- Figure 82: Types of imported beer consumed, 2013-17
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- Figure 83: Brands of imported beer consumed, 2013-17
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- Figure 84: Craft/microbrewed beer consumption, 2013-17
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- Figure 85: Brands of craft/microbrewed beer consumed, 2013-17
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- Figure 86: Malt liquor consumption, 2013-17
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- Figure 87: Brands of hard cider/craft cider consumed, 2016-17
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