Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Modest category growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Cookie consumers are habit driven
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- Figure 2: Cookie behavior, habitual behaviors, May 2017
- Competition from other cookies, sweets and snacks
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- Figure 3: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies and other sweets, May 2017
- Growing obesity epidemic challenges category
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- Figure 4: Growth in obesity among adults aged 20 and over in the united states, 2013-15
- The opportunities
- Increase frequency, target new consumers
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- Figure 5: Cookie purchase, any purchase and more than once a month, by any packaged cookies*, May 2017
- Consumers seek indulgence
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- Figure 6: Cookie innovation, by flavor and format, May 2017
- Convenience is key
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- Figure 7: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by packaging, May 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category growth driven by smaller segments
- Interest in indulgence helps premium, store brand cookies
- BFY options small but influential
- Cookies compete with sweet alternatives
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category continues modest growth
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Dominant standard cookies struggle while smaller segments grow
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2017
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Cookies bought in wide variety of channels
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Market Perspective
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- Snacks act as a treat
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- Figure 13: Snacking motivations, March 2017
- Fresh and convenient options test packaged
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- Figure 14: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies, May 2017
- Sweet snacks rivalry could be occasion driven
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- Figure 15: Cookie purchase, other sweets, May 2017
Market Factors
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- Rise in health issues may lead to BFY choices
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- Figure 16: Growth in health issues in the united states, 2013-15
- Younger adults age into primary purchasing roles
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- Figure 17: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
- Households with children growth stalled
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- Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Big brands give way to niche
- Novelty drives smaller player success
- Increased brand participation in BFY cookies
- Breakfast cookies don’t deliver
- Indulgence gets creative
Company and Brand Sales of Cookies
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- Mondelēz is captain of the category
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Oreo continues its standard rule
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- Figure 20: MULO market share of standard cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
- Figure 21: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Oreo and Chips Ahoy, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
- Pepperidge Farm dominates premium cookies segment
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- Figure 22: MULO market share of premium cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
- Figure 23: MULO sales of premium cookies, by Pepperidge Farm, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
- Belvita’s breakfast positioning leads BFY
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- Figure 24: MULO market share of better-for-you cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Belvita and Nature Valley, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
What’s Working?
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- Private label brands find success in category
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by private label, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Niche brands trade on healthy decadence
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by other brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Single serve packaging for on-the-go
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- Figure 28: Cookie launches, by on-the-go claim, 2014-17
- Packaging that protects product quality
- Thin and crispy brand extensions
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- Figure 29: TV Advertisement – “Oreo Thins Hypnotize” - Oreo
- Clean labels allow for indulgence with less guilt
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- Figure 30: Cookie launches, health claims, 2014-17
- Novelty and LTOs
What’s Struggling?
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- Breakfast cookies struggle to connect
What’s Next?
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- Bootlegged flavors
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- Figure 31: Online video – “Tell us your Oreo creation ideas” – Oreo
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- Figure 32: TV Ad – “Camping Trip” – Chips Ahoy!
- Category blurring
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- Figure 33: TV Advertisement – “New! Nature Valley Granola Cups” – Nature Valley
- Protein enhanced options
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- Figure 34: Cookie launches, by high protein claim, 2014-17
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cookies are pantry staples
- Cookie consumers are habit driven
- Cookies are snack friendly
- Room to improve in packaging, flavor, and format
Cookie Purchase
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- Cookies are a pantry staple
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- Figure 35: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies, other cookies, and other packaged sweets, May 2017
- Parents are frequent cookie buyers
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- Figure 36: Cookie purchase, by any packaged cookies, by parental status, May 2017
- Younger adults have broad repertoire of cookies
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- Figure 37: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by packaged cookie segments, by age
- Men purchase cookies more frequently
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- Figure 38: Cookie purchase, by any cookies, packaged cookies, and other sweets, more than once a month, by gender, May 2017
- Hispanics most likely to buy all types of cookies
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- Figure 39: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies and segments, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
Cookie Behavior
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- Consumers have established patterns
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- Figure 40: Cookie behavior, May 2017
- Difference in behavior impacts cookie purchase among men and women
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- Figure 41: Cookie behavior, by gender, May 2017
- Older adults stick with familiar, younger adults seek out variety
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- Figure 42: Cookie behavior, by age, May 2017
- Cookies a pantry item for parents
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- Figure 43: Cookie behavior, by parental status, May 2017
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- Figure 44: Cookie behavior, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2017
Cookie Occasions
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- PM hours offer primary occasions
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- Figure 45: Cookie occasions, May 2017
- AM occasions draw users of health-focused, imported cookies
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- Figure 46: Cookie purchase, by cookie occasions, by for breakfast, May 2017
- Men less discerning about time of day
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- Figure 47: Cookie occasions, by gender, May 2017
Cookie Attitudes
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- Convenience and indulgence drive popularity of packaged cookies
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- Figure 48: Cookie attitudes, any agree, May 2017
- Age and gender play role in attitudinal differences on cookies
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- Figure 49: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by health and premium and store brand cookies, by gender and age, May 2017
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- Figure 50: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by boredom with current flavors and cookie innovation, by gender and age, May 2017
- Household income impacts price consumers are willing to pay
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- Figure 51: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by worth paying more for and store brand cookies, by household income, May 2017
Cookie Attributes
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- Consumers indicate taste and flavor are most important cookie attributes
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- Figure 52: Cookie attributes, May 2017
- Health attributes most important for those that eat cookies for breakfast
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- Figure 53: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by health, May 2017
- Resealable packaging brings flexibility to cookie occasions
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- Figure 54: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by resealable packaging, May 2017
- Taste and low sugar more important attributes for older consumers
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- Figure 55: Cookie attributes, by age, May 2017
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- Figure 56: Cookie attributes, by health, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
Cookie Innovation
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- Consumers show interest in packaging, format, and flavor innovation
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- Figure 57: Cookie innovation, May 2017
- Mixed offering of innovation ideal for reaching a majority of consumers
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- Figure 58: TURF analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
- Hispanics most interested in stuffed, sweet and spicy cookies
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- Figure 59: Cookie innovation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
- Parents express greater interest across most cookie innovations
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- Figure 60: Cookie innovation, by parental status, May 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 61: Table – TURF Analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 74: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 75: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
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- Figure 76: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 77: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 78: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 79: MULO sales of better-for-you cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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