Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category sales shift to modest growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
- Penetration high for prepared meals overall
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- Figure 2: Prepared meals purchase, March 2017
- Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
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- Figure 3: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, March 2017
- Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
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- Figure 4: Attribute importance for prepared meals, March 2017
- The opportunities
- Taste and snacking important motivations for young adults
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- Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by gender and age, March 2017
- Combining organic, vegetarian, and snacking
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- Figure 6: Prepared meals innovation areas, by age, March 2017
- Encouraging stock-up may help to increase purchase and consumption
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- Figure 7: Prepared meals behaviors, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category sales shift to modest growth
- Frozen meals sales level off after years of declines
- Side dishes drive growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category sales shift to modest growth
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Frozen meals sales level off after years of declines
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- Figure 10: Share of prepared meals sales, by segment, 2016
- Side dishes drive growth
- Sales of refrigerated meals hold steady
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- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, by segment, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Perspective
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- Weak category performance consistent with center-store as a whole
- In center-store, shelf stable outpaces frozen food
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- Figure 12: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Beyond portability: Farmer’s Fridge sells meals in vending machines
Market Factors
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- Increasing interest in cooking could spell trouble for prepared meals
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- Figure 13: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
- Prepared meal consumption resonates among households with children
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- Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
- Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for prepared meals/sides
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- Figure 15: US population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Nestlé strengthens its position as top competitor in category
- Pinnacle Foods generates solid gains
- Small and mighty: Frozen side dishes drive category sales growth
- Appealing to personal dietary preferences
- Comfort and cravings hold their own amid healthy eating trend
- Stouffer’s stakes out territory between prepared meals and scratch cooking
- Oprah Winfrey could help to energize refrigerated meals segment
Company Sales of Prepared Meals
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- Nestlé strengthens its position as top competitor in category
- Pinnacle Foods generates solid gains
- Kraft Heinz launches new brands
- Sales of prepared meals by company
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- Figure 16: MULO sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Small and mighty: Frozen side dishes drive category sales growth
- Nestlé’s Lean Cuisine and Stouffer’s gain in single-serve frozen meals
- Appealing to personal dietary preferences
- Comfort and cravings hold their own amid healthy eating trend
What’s Struggling?
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- Banquet sales continue to slide
What’s Next?
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- Stouffer’s stakes out territory between prepared meals and scratch cooking
- Oprah Winfrey could help to energize refrigerated meals segment
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Penetration high for prepared meals overall
- Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
- Dinner the most common use, but snacks could be growth opportunity
- Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
- A focus on taste and variety
- Consumers more likely to report cutting back than increasing purchase
Prepared Meals Purchase
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- Penetration high for prepared meals overall
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- Figure 17: Prepared meals purchase, March 2017
- Young adults, men 18-34 especially, a key market for category
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- Figure 18: Prepared meals purchase – Any purchase, by gender and age, March 2017
- Hispanics more likely to purchase prepared meals
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- Figure 19: Prepared meals purchase – Any purchase, by race/hispanic origin, March 2017
- In their words: other options considered for convenient meals
Reasons for Purchase
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- Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
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- Figure 20: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, March 2017
- Taste and cuisine variety linked to increased purchase
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- Figure 21: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
- Taste and snacking important motivations for young adults
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- Figure 22: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by gender and age, March 2017
When Prepared Meals Are Eaten
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- Dinner the most common use, but snacks could be growth opportunity
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- Figure 23: When prepared meals are eaten, March 2017
- Young adults likely to look beyond traditional meals
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- Figure 24: When prepared meals are eaten, by gender and age, March 2017
- In their words: when prepared meals are eaten
Attribute Importance
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- Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
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- Figure 25: Attribute importance for prepared meals, March 2017
- Older adults focused on traditional “low/no” health claims
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- Figure 26: Attribute importance for prepared meals purchased for self, by age, March 2017
Interest in Innovations and Features
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- A focus on taste and variety
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- Figure 27: Prepared meals innovation areas, March 2017
- Combining organic, vegetarian, and snacking
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- Figure 28: Prepared meals innovation areas, by age, March 2017
- In their words: designing the ideal prepared meal
Prepared Meals Behaviors
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- Consumers more likely to report cutting back than increasing purchase
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- Figure 29: Prepared meals behaviors, March 2017
- Encouraging stock-up may help to increase purchase and consumption
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- Figure 30: Prepared meals behaviors, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
- In their words: changes in consumption of prepared meals and sides
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of multiserve frozen meals, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 35: Total US sales and forecast of side dishes, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 36: Total US sales and forecast of side dishes, by temperature state, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, channel, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 38: MULO sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 39: MULO sales of multiserve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 40: MULO sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 41: MULO sales of side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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