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Prepared Meals - US - May 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Category sales shift to modest growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Penetration high for prepared meals overall
Figure 2: Prepared meals purchase, March 2017
Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
Figure 3: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, March 2017
Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
Figure 4: Attribute importance for prepared meals, March 2017
The opportunities
Taste and snacking important motivations for young adults
Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by gender and age, March 2017
Combining organic, vegetarian, and snacking
Figure 6: Prepared meals innovation areas, by age, March 2017
Encouraging stock-up may help to increase purchase and consumption
Figure 7: Prepared meals behaviors, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Category sales shift to modest growth
Frozen meals sales level off after years of declines
Side dishes drive growth
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category sales shift to modest growth
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Frozen meals sales level off after years of declines
Figure 10: Share of prepared meals sales, by segment, 2016
Side dishes drive growth
Sales of refrigerated meals hold steady
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, by segment, at current prices, 2011-16
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Weak category performance consistent with center-store as a whole
In center-store, shelf stable outpaces frozen food
Figure 12: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Beyond portability: Farmer’s Fridge sells meals in vending machines
MARKET FACTORS
Increasing interest in cooking could spell trouble for prepared meals
Figure 13: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
Prepared meal consumption resonates among households with children
Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for prepared meals/sides
Figure 15: US population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Nestlé strengthens its position as top competitor in category
Pinnacle Foods generates solid gains
Small and mighty: Frozen side dishes drive category sales growth
Appealing to personal dietary preferences
Comfort and cravings hold their own amid healthy eating trend
Stouffer’s stakes out territory between prepared meals and scratch cooking
Oprah Winfrey could help to energize refrigerated meals segment
COMPANY SALES OF PREPARED MEALS
Nestlé strengthens its position as top competitor in category
Pinnacle Foods generates solid gains
Kraft Heinz launches new brands
Sales of prepared meals by company
Figure 16: MULO sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Small and mighty: Frozen side dishes drive category sales growth
Nestlé’s Lean Cuisine and Stouffer’s gain in single-serve frozen meals
Appealing to personal dietary preferences
Comfort and cravings hold their own amid healthy eating trend
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Banquet sales continue to slide
WHAT’S NEXT?
Stouffer’s stakes out territory between prepared meals and scratch cooking
Oprah Winfrey could help to energize refrigerated meals segment
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Penetration high for prepared meals overall
Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
Dinner the most common use, but snacks could be growth opportunity
Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
A focus on taste and variety
Consumers more likely to report cutting back than increasing purchase
PREPARED MEALS PURCHASE
Penetration high for prepared meals overall
Figure 17: Prepared meals purchase, March 2017
Young adults, men 18-34 especially, a key market for category
Figure 18: Prepared meals purchase – Any purchase, by gender and age, March 2017
Hispanics more likely to purchase prepared meals
Figure 19: Prepared meals purchase – Any purchase, by race/hispanic origin, March 2017
In their words: other options considered for convenient meals
REASONS FOR PURCHASE
Convenience drives purchase; other areas could drive growth
Figure 20: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, March 2017
Taste and cuisine variety linked to increased purchase
Figure 21: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
Taste and snacking important motivations for young adults
Figure 22: Reasons for purchasing prepared meals, by gender and age, March 2017
WHEN PREPARED MEALS ARE EATEN
Dinner the most common use, but snacks could be growth opportunity
Figure 23: When prepared meals are eaten, March 2017
Young adults likely to look beyond traditional meals
Figure 24: When prepared meals are eaten, by gender and age, March 2017
In their words: when prepared meals are eaten
ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE 
Mix of health and taste important to both individual and family shoppers
Figure 25: Attribute importance for prepared meals, March 2017
Older adults focused on traditional “low/no” health claims
Figure 26: Attribute importance for prepared meals purchased for self, by age, March 2017
INTEREST IN INNOVATIONS AND FEATURES
A focus on taste and variety
Figure 27: Prepared meals innovation areas, March 2017
Combining organic, vegetarian, and snacking
Figure 28: Prepared meals innovation areas, by age, March 2017
In their words: designing the ideal prepared meal
PREPARED MEALS BEHAVIORS
Consumers more likely to report cutting back than increasing purchase
Figure 29: Prepared meals behaviors, March 2017
Encouraging stock-up may help to increase purchase and consumption
Figure 30: Prepared meals behaviors, by change in purchase frequency, March 2017
In their words: changes in consumption of prepared meals and sides
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of multiserve frozen meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 35: Total US sales and forecast of side dishes, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 36: Total US sales and forecast of side dishes, by temperature state, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of prepared meals, channel, at current prices, 2011-16
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 38: MULO sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 39: MULO sales of multiserve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 40: MULO sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 41: MULO sales of side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

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