Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Definitions
- Research methodology
- Consumer research
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- Review of Christmas 2003
- Market factors
- The significance of Christmas to retailers
- The consumer
- Consumer attitudes and typologies
- Conclusions and implications
- Online: yet to take the stress out of Christmas shopping
- Consumer spend is at the mercy of interest rates
- Barometer groups for 2004
- Discounting encourages delay
- Which way forward for non-specialist non-food retailers?
- Christmas 2004 – difficult last-minute trading anticipated
Review of Christmas Trading 2003
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- National Statistics sales data
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- Figure 1: Percentage change in December retail sales, 2002-03
- Predominantly food retailers – includes all food, drink and tobacco specialists
- Predominantly non-food retailers
- Predominantly non-food retailers
- Mixed goods – Non-specific non-food stores
- Clothing and footwear stores
- Household goods stores
- All other non-food specialists
- Non-store retailing
- Online trading
Market Factors
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- PDI and consumer expenditure trends and outlook
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- Figure 2: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 1998 prices, 1998-2007
- Personal debt
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- Figure 3: Net lending to individuals, not seasonally adjusted, 1999-2002
- Figure 4: Net lending to individuals, 2002 and 2003
- Unemployment and changing work patterns
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- Figure 5: Workforce and employment, 1998-2007
- Children and falling birth-rates
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- Figure 6: Child population and number of live births, 1998-2007
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- Figure 7: UK households and one-person households, 1998-2007
- Age profile of the population
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- Figure 8: Population profile, by age group, 1998-2007
- Competing for consumer spend
- Conclusions and prospects for 2004
The Significance of Christmas to Retail Businesses
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- Retail sales growth
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- Figure 9: All retail sales, at current and constant 1998 prices, 1998-2003
- Performance by sector in 2003 compared to 2002
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- Figure 10: Annual change in sales value, by sector, 2001/02 and 2002/03
- Performance by sector – fourth quarter 2003 compared to fourth quarter 2002
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- Figure 11: Fourth quarter year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2001/02 and 2002/03
- Performance by sector – December 2003 compared to December 2002
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- Figure 12: December, year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2001/02 and 2002/03
- The relative importance of fourth quarter sales
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- Figure 13: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in fourth quarter, by sector, 1995-2003
- The relative importance of December sales
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- Figure 14: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value – proportion of sales taken in December, by sector, 1995-2003
- Conclusions and implications
The Consumer
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- Anticipated expenditure – what they said they were going to spend
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- Figure 15: Anticipated Christmas spending levels this year, October 2003
- Actual expenditure – what they spent
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- Figure 16: Anticipated and actual Christmas spending levels, October 2003 and January 2004
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- Figure 17: Christmas spending levels, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 18: Christmas spending levels, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 19: Christmas spending levels, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 20: Christmas spending levels, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Anticipated expenditure on gifts – what they said they were going to spend
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- Figure 21: Anticipated levels of expenditure on gifts for close friends and family this Christmas, October 2003
- Actual expenditure on gifts – what they spent
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- Figure 22: Actual levels of expenditure on gifts for close friends and family this Christmas, January 2004
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- Figure 23: Anticipated and actual levels of expenditure on gifts for close friends and family this Christmas, October 2003 and January 2004
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- Figure 24: Those spending less than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 25: Those spending less than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 26: Those spending less than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 27: Those spending less than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
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- Figure 28: Those spending more than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 29: Those spending more than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 30: Those spending more than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 31: Those spending more than £400 on gifts for close friends and family, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Average spend data – intended against actual spend
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- Figure 32: Average Christmas spending on gifts for close friends and family, intended and actual spend, by age, gender, socio-economic group, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, October 2003 and January 2004
- Anticipated purchase of gifts – what they said they were going to buy
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- Figure 33: Anticipated and actual Christmas gift purchasing, October 2003, January 2004
- Actual purchasing of gifts – what they bought
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- Figure 34: Most popularly bought Christmas gifts, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 35: Most popularly bought Christmas gifts, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 36: Most popularly bought Christmas gifts, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 37: Most popularly bought Christmas gifts, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
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- Figure 38: Other popularly bought Christmas gifts, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 39: Other popularly bought Christmas gifts, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 40: Other popularly bought Christmas gifts, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 41: Other popularly bought Christmas gifts, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Products purchased and amount spent
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- Figure 42: Purchase penetration of gifts, by amount spent on gifts, January 2004
Consumer Attitudes and Typologies
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- Attitudes towards Christmas shopping and Christmas shopping behaviour
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards Christmas shopping and shopping behaviour, January 2004
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- Figure 44: Most popular views about Christmas shopping, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 45: Most popular views about Christmas shopping, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 46: Most popular views about Christmas shopping, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 47: Most popular views about Christmas shopping, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Analysis of variety of categories purchased from
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- Figure 48: Repertoire of products purchased, January 2004
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- Figure 49: Repertoire of products purchased, January 2004
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- Figure 50: Repertoires of product categories, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Types of Christmas shopper – identifying target groups
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- Figure 51: Christmas shopping cluster groups, January 2004
- Christmas shopping types by demographics
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- Figure 52: Christmas shopping cluster groups, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January 2004
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- Figure 53: Christmas shopping cluster groups, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and store used for regular grocery shopping, January 2004
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- Figure 54: Christmas shopping cluster groups, by region and ACORN category, January 2004
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- Figure 55: Christmas shopping cluster groups, by lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January 2004
- Key findings
Conclusions and Issues for Christmas 2004
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- Online: yet to take the stress out of Christmas shopping
- Consumer spend is at the mercy of interest rates
- Barometer groups for 2004
- Discounting encourages delay
- Which way forward for non-specialist non-food retailers?
- Christmas 2004 – difficult last-minute trading anticipated
- Government expects to ban Christmas Day trading for big stores
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