Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Positive growth seen in 2016 and forecast through 2021
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
- The issues
- Obesity is high and traditional ice cream is seen as high fat, sugar and calorie
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- Figure 2: Perceptions of Frozen treats in terms of calories, sugar, and fat, February 2017
- Frozen yogurt and sherbet/sorbet/ices struggle, fail to grow sales
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy and sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2011-21
- In 2016, volume sales are still well below level seen in 2012
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- Figure 4: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by millions of units, 2011-16
- The opportunities
- High engagement from younger consumers, parents, and Hispanics
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- Figure 5: purchasing of ice cream and frozen yogurt, by type and select demographics, December 2016
- Many opportunities for usage and promotion of ice cream and treats
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- Figure 6: Reasons for Frozen treat purchase, for iGeneration, Millennials, and parents, February 2017
- Cultivating loyalty, expanding reach
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- Figure 7: Purchase drivers, for iGeneration and millennials, February 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Positive growth seen in 2016, with sales reaching $12.8 billion
- Opportunities in premium, healthier fare and with demographic focus
- In-store usage strong, competition still present from many sides
Market Size and Forecast
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- Positive growth seen in 2016 and forecast through 2021
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Together ice cream and frozen novelties comprise 96% of sales
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- Figure 10: Market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2016
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Gelato sales fall in 2016, but are likely to stabilize
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- Figure 12: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
- The forecast for frozen yogurt and sherbet/sorbet remains poor
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Volume sales decline in all segments at MULO
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- Figure 14: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by millions of units, 2011-16
- From 2015-16, volume increase highest in ice cream/frozen dairy dessert
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- Figure 15: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by segment, by millions of units/packages, 2015 and 2016
Market Perspective
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- In-store purchase outpaces foodservice
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- Figure 16: frozen treat purchase, by location of purchase, February 2017
- Ice cream shops can lead perception of premium, support brands
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- Figure 17: Ben & Jerry’s cereal flashback, March 2017
- Other treats can compete with – or complement – frozen treats
- Non-frozen yogurt offers sweet, dairy-based treat, with healthy profile
- Frozen blended coffeehouse drinks are popular with young generations
Market Factors
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- Obesity epidemic may dampen ice cream sales, boost call for healthier treats
- Parents, who will be more racially diverse, also key to market
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- Figure 18: frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
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- Figure 19: frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
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- Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
- Figure 21: Hispanic share of population, by generation, 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Two leading suppliers lose share in diversified supply landscape
- Ben & Jerry’s, Talenti & Häagen-Dazs stand out in ice cream segment
- Premium frozen novelties with grown-up appeal perform well
- Frozen yogurt and sherbets/sorbets/ices segments struggle
- Key trends are natural ingredients, nutritious treats, small servings
Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- Four leading suppliers command about half of the market
- Private label struggles, while “other” companies build sales and share
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties by company
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- Figure 22: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by company, rolling 52 weeks, 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Indulgent ice cream with high quality, natural ingredients performs well
- Ben & Jerry’s and Talenti perform well, boost sales for Unilever
- Ben & Jerry’s: social activism…and mix-in super indulgence
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- Figure 23: Ben & Jerry’s Join the Climate Movement ad, July 2016
- Talenti Gelato’s message of indulgence, quality ingredients and lower fat resonate
- Häagen-Dazs, messaging purity + pleasure shines for Nestlé’s premium brand
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Frozen novelties’ sales growth slow, but some standout successes
- Unilever's Magnum is stand-out success with double-dip bars
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- Figure 25: magnum double caramel, ad, may 2016
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- Figure 26: Magnum double ice cream with Kendall Jenner ad, may 2016
- Other indulgent and candy-centered treats outperform the segment
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Frozen yogurt struggles, one or two bright spots
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of frozen yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- MULO sales fall for sherbet, sorbet and ices, a few make gains
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- Figure 29: MULO sales sherbet, sorbet and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Next?
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- The expansion of premium offerings with natural, simpler formulations
- Seasonal, coffee, or tea inspired, and unusual flavors
- More nutritious, probiotic, protein, and vitamin enriched offerings
- For small suppliers, original flavors tie to TV shows, sports teams, icons
- Nostalgic tastes and kid-friendly, candy and cake inspired offerings
- Smaller sizes, including bite-sized confectionary-inspired treats
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Ice cream is the most widely purchased, followed by frozen novelties
- Satisfying a craving and snacking drives consumption
- Most engaged consumers seek range of formats and brands
- Consumers seek favorite flavors, want indulgence over healthfulness
- Health and safety concerns unlikely to thwart consumption.
- Dairy-based ice cream and frozen novelties enjoy positive associations
Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Ice cream is top purchase, with frozen novelties in second
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- Figure 30: Frozen treat purchase, by type of treat and where eaten, February 2017
- Younger generations relish treats beyond basic ice cream
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- Figure 31: In-store frozen treat purchase, by generation, February 2017
- Kids love frozen treats…and parents, understandably, buy more!
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- Figure 32: In-store frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
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- Figure 33: Type of in-store frozen treat purchase, by parental status February 2017
- Hispanics are key consumers, buying wide range of frozen treats
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- Figure 34: In-store frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
- Figure 35: Type of in-store frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
Reasons for Purchase
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- Satisfying sweet cravings and snacking drive purchases
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- Figure 36: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2017
- Younger generations eat frozen treats to satisfy craving or snack
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- Figure 37: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, Part I, by generation, February 2017
- Younger consumers find a range of secondary reasons to indulge
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- Figure 38: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, Part II, by generation, February 2017
- A wide range of reasons propel parents to buy frozen treats
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- Figure 39: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
- Hispanics above all seek frozen treats to satisfy carving or as snack
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- Figure 40: Reasons for Frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
Frozen Treat Formats
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- Half-gallon packages lead, but smaller formats still widely used
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- Figure 41: Packaging size for frozen treat purchases, February 2017
- Single-flavor products most popular, followed by mix-ins
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- Figure 42: Flavors and product qualities, February 2017
- Younger buyers use smaller packages, more varied and indulgent treats
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- Figure 43: Packaging size for frozen treat purchases, by generation, February 2017
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- Figure 44: Flavors and product qualities, by generation, February 2017
- Parents seek variety packs and use gamut of brands
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- Figure 45: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2017
- Expanding packaging options builds accessibility
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- Figure 46: TURF Analysis – Frozen treat formats, February 2017
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- Figure 47: Table - TURF Analysis – Frozen treat formats, February 2017
Purchase Drivers
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- Favorite flavor is the top driver, though value also shapes choices
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- Figure 48: Purchase drivers, February 2017
- For consumers of all ages, favorite flavor is a central driver
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- Figure 49: Purchase drivers, part i, by generations, February 2017
- Millennials are more likely to seek new flavors and premium brands
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- Figure 50: Purchase drivers, part ii, by generations, February 2017
- Parents seek new flavors, premium offerings, and more natural ingredients
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- Figure 51: purchase drivers, by parental status, February 2017
- Household income shapes importance of price, sales, and brand quality
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- Figure 52: purchase drivers, by household income, February 2017
Attitudes Towards Frozen Treats
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- A third eat treats weekly; national brands widely seen as better tasting
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- Figure 53: Attitudes related to consumption level and brand, February 2017
- Safety or health concerns rarely drive down consumption
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- Figure 54: Attitudes related to health and safety, February 2017
- Younger consumers less likely to let health concerns limit consumption
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- Figure 55: Select attitudes towards frozen treats, by generation, February 2017
- Despite greater safety concerns, parents stock, buy and eat more treats
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- Figure 56: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
Perceptions of Frozen Treats
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- Dairy-based ice cream viewed as indulgent, but delicious and satisfying
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- Figure 57: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of frozen treats, February 2017
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- Figure 58: Perceptions of frozen treats, February 2017
- iGeneration posts positive perceptions of treats beyond ice cream
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- Figure 59: Perceptions of ice cream, by generation, February 2017
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- Figure 60: Perceptions of frozen novelties, by generation, February 2017
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- Figure 61: Perceptions of frozen yogurt, by generation, February 2017
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- Figure 62: Perceptions of non-dairy frozen dessert, by generation, February 2017
- Parents see range of treats beyond novelty items as appropriate for kids
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- Figure 63: Perceptions of which products are for kids and adults, by parental status, February 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- TURF methodology
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 65: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen desserts, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 67: Total US sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 68: Total US sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 69: Total US sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 70: Total US sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 71: Total US sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet and ices, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 72: Total US sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet and ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 73: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties,, by retail channel, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 74: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
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- Figure 75: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2017
- Figure 76: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2015
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