Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Consumer research
- Market size
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dairy milk consumption continues to decline
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- Figure 1: Total per capita volume consumption of dairy milk in Canada, 2011-16
- Clearer messaging can support non-dairy milk options
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- Figure 2: Statements related to non-dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
- External factors impede dairy milk’s usage
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- Figure 3: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
- The opportunities
- Focus on core attributes when promoting dairy milk
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- Figure 4: Top reasons why consumers personally drink milk, January 2017
- Non-dairy milk proves more popular among younger adults
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- Figure 5: Stated personal consumption of non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
- Consumers are most likely to use dairy milk as an additive
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- Figure 6: How dairy milk is used, January 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
- International influence may lead to industry disruption
- Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth, but represents a challenge for dairy
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
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- Figure 7: Canadian total volume sales and fan chart for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Canadian retail volume sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
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- Figure 9: Canadian retail value sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Canadian retail value sales and forecast for (dairy) milk, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Factors
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- International influence may lead to industry disruption
- Dairy milk producers can adjust focus to appeal to Canada’s aging population
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- Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
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- Figure 12: Foreign-born share of population by G8 country and Australia
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk declines continue
- Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
- Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
What’s Working?
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- Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
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- Figure 13: Share of launches white milk, flavoured milk and plant-based drinks (dairy alternatives) in Canada and US, 2016 vs 2011
What’s Struggling?
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- Dairy milk declines continue
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- Figure 14: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
- Tension around the use of the term milk for dairy alternatives
What’s Next?
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- Flavour exploration represents an innovation opportunity for dairy milk
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- Figure 15: Flavoured milk launches in North America, share by flavour, 2016
- Figure 16: Sir bananas WhiteWave Foods, May 2016 (US)
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- Figure 17: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor, July 2016 (US)
- Figure 18: Lactantia French Vanilla Partly Skimmed Milk, December 2015 (Canada)
- Figure 19: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor Dark Chocolate Truffle Flavored Reduced Fat Milk, August 2015 (US)
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- Figure 20: Hangyo Mango Flavoured Milk, December 2016 (India)
- Further opportunity to showcase health benefits
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- Figure 21: Almacenes Éxito Quinoa, Soy and Malt Drink, September 2016 (Columbia)
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- Figure 22: Marks & Spencer Made without Dairy Multigrain Drink, February 2017 (UK)
- Figure 23: Nestlé Nesfit, Rice Smoothie with Grape, Beetroot & Ginger, April 2016 (Brazil)
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- Figure 24: Oatly! Apple, Beetroot & Ginger Flavoured Recovery Drink, July 2016 (Sweden)
- Figure 25: Veggemo Original Veggie Based Non-Dairy Beverage, December 2015 (Canada)
- Cold pressed an opportunity in the dairy milk category
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- Figure 26: Organic Gemini Strawberry Flavoured TigerNut Horchata, October 2015 (US)
- Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
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- Figure 27: Discover the Natrel Milk Bar by Java U – Toronto, October 2016
- Continued investment in innovation
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
- Health represents a more prominent consideration for older consumers
- Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
- Education key in supporting expansion of non-dairy milk
- Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children
Milk Usage
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- Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
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- Figure 28: Personal consumption of dairy milk in the past three months, by type, January 2017
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- Figure 29: Personal consumption of non-dairy milk in the past three months, January 2017
- Canadians are most likely to use milk as an additive
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- Figure 30: How milk is used (overview), by consumer type, January 2017
- Milk ingredient usage is a key to wholesome exploration
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- Figure 31: Ingredient-related milk usage, by consumer type, January 2017
- Figure 32: Milk usage as an ingredient while cooking, by gender and age, January 2017
- Milk usage varies by age and other demographic indicators
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- Figure 33: Dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
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- Figure 34: Non-dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
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- Figure 35: Kikkoman Tonyu Inryo Apple Pie Flavour Soymilk, October 2016 (Japan)
- Figure 36: Tumeric Mexican Chocolate Super Blend, April 2015 (US)
Reasons Consumers Drink Milk
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- Figure 37: Reasons for personally drinking milk, January 2017
- Health represents more a prominent consideration for older consumers
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- Figure 38: Health-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by age, January 2017
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- Figure 39: Help Prevent Osteoporosis, October 2016
- Gender influences the importance of taste
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- Figure 40: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
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- Figure 41: Hockey | Dairy Farmers of Canada, February 2017
- Nostalgia’s importance increases with age and among men
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- Figure 42: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
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- Figure 43: Milk Every Moment – “Lunch”, September 2015
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- Figure 44: Nostalgia-related reasons for personally drinking milk – men, by age, January 2017
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Attitudes towards Dairy Milk
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- Provenance and purity matter to Canadian consumers
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- Figure 45: Statements relating to dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
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- Figure 46: Agropur pride, September 2015
- Figure 47: Provenance and hormone-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
- Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
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- Figure 48: Barriers to drinking dairy milk, by age, January 2017
- Figure 49: Personally consumed dairy or non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
- Younger adults more likely to show interest in innovation
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- Figure 50: Interest in dairy milk innovation, by age, January 2017
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- Figure 51: President’s Choice Vanilla Bean Kefir Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
- Figure 52: Iögo Probio Kéfir Strawberry Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
- Figure 53: Danone Drinking Yogurt, January 2016 (Russia)
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- Figure 54: Behind The Milk Glass, October 2016
Attitudes towards Non-dairy Milk
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- Education key in supporting non-dairy milk expansion
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- Figure 55: Non-dairy milk statements (% agree), January 2017
- Younger consumers hold more positive views on non-dairy milk
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- Figure 56: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
- Figure 57: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
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- Figure 58: Flavour and ingredients-related statements about non-dairy milk (% agree), by age, January 2017
Consumer Groups
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- Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children’s presence
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- Figure 59: Household consumption of milk, by parental status, January 2017
- Chinese Canadians exhibit different behaviours with regards to milk
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- Figure 60: Household consumption of milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
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- Figure 61: Reasons for drinking milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
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- Figure 62: Non-dairy statements (% agree), Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
- Americans drink more milk
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- Figure 63: Total volume consumption per capita, Canada vs US, January 2017
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- Figure 64: Household dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
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- Figure 65: How dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
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- Figure 66: Household non-dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
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- Figure 67: How non-dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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