Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
- The future
- Companies and brands
- Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
- Traditional English ciders and world ciders are star performers
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- Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the UK off-trade, 2015/16*
- Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
- Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
- The consumer
- Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
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- Figure 3: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
- Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
- Still room for more flavour innovation
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- Figure 4: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
- The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
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- Figure 5: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
- Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
- An appetite for knowing more about cider making
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
- Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
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- Figure 7: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Still scope for flavour innovation to engage, but it needs to be different
- The facts
- The implications
- Cider makers should react to consumers’ thirst for knowledge, particularly those boasting traditional methods
- The facts
- The implications
- With many consumers cutting back on alcohol, innovation in smaller formats is timely
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
- Rising prices have buoyed value growth
- Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
- Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
- Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
- Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
- New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
- Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
Market Size and Forecast
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- Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
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- Figure 8: Total value sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- The future
- Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
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- Figure 9: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
- Volume sales set to continue to slide
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- Figure 10: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU Referendum
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- Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the cider market, 2016-21
- Negative impacts of Brexit expected to kick in in 2017
- Briton’s optimism demonstrates the “keep calm and carry on” ethos
- A repeat of the 2009 sales surge is not likely on the cards
- Forecast methodology
Channels to Market
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- Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
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- Figure 12: Value and volume sales of cider, by channel, 2010-15
- Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
Market Drivers
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- Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
- Unmet demand for low-calorie ciders
- New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
- Smaller formats allow drinkers to still have the “real thing”
- The small tax relief for alcohol producers is set to be outweighed by other upward pressures on cost
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- Figure 13: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
- Weakening of the Pound set to push prices of imported alcohol upwards
- The on-trade set to be affected by more cautious spending habits
- The new Pubs Code
- Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
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- Figure 14: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
- Strongbow and Magners returns to value growth in 2016
- Traditional English go from strength to strength
- Fruit ciders continue to flourish
- Fruit cider remains a hotbed of NPD activity
- The 330ml can format is given more attention
- Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
Market Share
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- Heineken’s lead narrows slightly in 2016
- Bulmers is the weak link in the Heineken portfolio
- Strongbow returns to value growth in 2016
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- Figure 15: Leading manufacturers’ shares of retail cider sales in the UK, 2015/16*
- Figure 16: Retail value sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
- Traditional English go from strength to strength
- Fruit ciders continue to flourish
- A turnaround in the fortunes of Magners
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- Figure 17: Retail value sales of the leading cider manufacturers in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
- Lambrini holds the lion’s share of the perry market
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- Figure 18: Retail value sales of the leading perry brands in the UK, 2015-16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
- Smirnoff enters the fruit cider market
- Botanicals and spices add sophistication to fruit flavours
- Heineken goes super-premium with Cidrerie Stassen
- The 330ml can format is given more attention
- New line from Thatchers
- Weston’s expands its canned craft cider range and adds a hopped variant
- Other cider brands embracing the 330ml can format
- Packaging redesigns for mainstream brands
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
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- Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider, 2012-16
- Strongbow centres its advertising on Team GB
- Thatchers continues to up its investment on advertising
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- Figure 20: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 15 advertisers in 2015, 2011-16
- ‘Seize the day’ is the message from Kopparberg
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- Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 10 brands in 2015, 2011-16
- Old Mout becomes the third biggest spender in 2016
- ‘Hold True’ campaign accompanies Magners’ packaging revamp
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 22: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 23: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2016
- Brand attitudes: Kopparberg and Rekorderlig seen most widely as worth paying more for
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- Figure 24: Attitudes, by brand, November 2016
- Brand personality: Strongbow is seen as more tired and boring than other brands
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- Figure 25: Brand personality – Macro image, November 2016
- Strongbow and Bulmers have the most traditional image
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- Figure 26: Brand personality – Micro image, November 2016
- Brand analysis
- Kopparberg has an enviable reputation all-round
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- Figure 27: User profile of Kopparberg, November 2016
- Stark similarities in the brand personality of Rekorderlig and Kopparberg
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- Figure 28: User profile of Rekorderlig, November 2016
- Magners has a middle-of-the-road image
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- Figure 29: User profile of Magners, November 2016
- Stella Artois Cidre needs to build brand trust
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- Figure 30: User profile of Stella Artois Cidre, November 2016
- Bulmers struggles to differentiate itself
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- Figure 31: User profile of Bulmers, November 2016
- Strongbow widely seen as accessible
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- Figure 32: User profile of Strongbow, November 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
- Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
- Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
- Still room to for more flavour innovation
- The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
- Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
- An appetite for knowing more about cider making
- Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
Usage of Cider
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- Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
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- Figure 33: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
- Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
- Apple cider benefits most from in-home drinking the off-trade
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- Figure 34: Types of cider drunk, by location, October 2016
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- Figure 35: Overall usage of cider, by gender, age and socio-economic group, October 2016
Interest in Innovation
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- Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
- Local ciders can offer a USP for pubs and supermarkets
- Cider traditional in other countries also resonate widely
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- Figure 36: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
- Opportunities in barrel-ageing
- Still room for more flavour innovation
- Dessert-flavours build associations with indulgence
- The rise of sour beers could lift the profile of sour flavours within cider
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- Figure 37: Consumers who have not yet bought cider with selected flavours but would be interested in buying in the future, by age group, October 2016
- Scope to encourage more consumers to drink mulled cider at home
Appealing Factors
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- The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
- High-quality ingredients have strong appeal
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- Figure 38: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
- Skilled artisanship and traditional methods resonate widely
Attitudes towards Cider
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- Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
- Scope to borrow cues from wine
- In-store activity is need to inspire shoppers when it matters
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
- An appetite for knowing more about cider making
- The cider offering can be made into a bigger selling point for pubs
- Strong interest in cider offering
- Social media offers a platform for driving venues’ cider credentials
What Defines a “Great” Cider?
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- Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
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- Figure 40: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
- Authenticity chimes among over-55s
- Trendiness and sophistication are on a par among under-35s for marking a “great” cider
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by volume, 2016-21
- Forecast methodology
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