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Cider - UK - January 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
The future
Companies and brands
Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
Traditional English ciders and world ciders are star performers
Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the UK off-trade, 2015/16*
Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
The consumer
Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
Figure 3: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
Still room for more flavour innovation
Figure 4: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
Figure 5: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
An appetite for knowing more about cider making
Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
Figure 7: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Still scope for flavour innovation to engage, but it needs to be different
The facts
The implications
Cider makers should react to consumers’ thirst for knowledge, particularly those boasting traditional methods
The facts
The implications
With many consumers cutting back on alcohol, innovation in smaller formats is timely
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
Rising prices have buoyed value growth
Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
Figure 8: Total value sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
The future
Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
Figure 9: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
Volume sales set to continue to slide
Figure 10: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2011-21
The impact of the EU Referendum
Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the cider market, 2016-21
Negative impacts of Brexit expected to kick in in 2017
Briton’s optimism demonstrates the “keep calm and carry on” ethos
A repeat of the 2009 sales surge is not likely on the cards
Forecast methodology
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
Figure 12: Value and volume sales of cider, by channel, 2010-15
Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
MARKET DRIVERS
Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
Unmet demand for low-calorie ciders
New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
Smaller formats allow drinkers to still have the “real thing”
The small tax relief for alcohol producers is set to be outweighed by other upward pressures on cost
Figure 13: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
Weakening of the Pound set to push prices of imported alcohol upwards
The on-trade set to be affected by more cautious spending habits
The new Pubs Code
Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
Figure 14: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
Strongbow and Magners returns to value growth in 2016
Traditional English go from strength to strength
Fruit ciders continue to flourish
Fruit cider remains a hotbed of NPD activity
The 330ml can format is given more attention
Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
MARKET SHARE
Heineken’s lead narrows slightly in 2016
Bulmers is the weak link in the Heineken portfolio
Strongbow returns to value growth in 2016
Figure 15: Leading manufacturers’ shares of retail cider sales in the UK, 2015/16*
Figure 16: Retail value sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
Traditional English go from strength to strength
Fruit ciders continue to flourish
A turnaround in the fortunes of Magners
Figure 17: Retail value sales of the leading cider manufacturers in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
Lambrini holds the lion’s share of the perry market
Figure 18: Retail value sales of the leading perry brands in the UK, 2015-16
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
Smirnoff enters the fruit cider market
Botanicals and spices add sophistication to fruit flavours
Heineken goes super-premium with Cidrerie Stassen
The 330ml can format is given more attention
New line from Thatchers
Weston’s expands its canned craft cider range and adds a hopped variant
Other cider brands embracing the 330ml can format
Packaging redesigns for mainstream brands
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider, 2012-16
Strongbow centres its advertising on Team GB
Thatchers continues to up its investment on advertising
Figure 20: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 15 advertisers in 2015, 2011-16
‘Seize the day’ is the message from Kopparberg
Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 10 brands in 2015, 2011-16
Old Mout becomes the third biggest spender in 2016
‘Hold True’ campaign accompanies Magners’ packaging revamp
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 22: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2016
Key brand metrics
Figure 23: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2016
Brand attitudes: Kopparberg and Rekorderlig seen most widely as worth paying more for
Figure 24: Attitudes, by brand, November 2016
Brand personality: Strongbow is seen as more tired and boring than other brands
Figure 25: Brand personality – Macro image, November 2016
Strongbow and Bulmers have the most traditional image
Figure 26: Brand personality – Micro image, November 2016
Brand analysis
Kopparberg has an enviable reputation all-round
Figure 27: User profile of Kopparberg, November 2016
Stark similarities in the brand personality of Rekorderlig and Kopparberg
Figure 28: User profile of Rekorderlig, November 2016
Magners has a middle-of-the-road image
Figure 29: User profile of Magners, November 2016
Stella Artois Cidre needs to build brand trust
Figure 30: User profile of Stella Artois Cidre, November 2016
Bulmers struggles to differentiate itself
Figure 31: User profile of Bulmers, November 2016
Strongbow widely seen as accessible
Figure 32: User profile of Strongbow, November 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
Still room to for more flavour innovation
The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
An appetite for knowing more about cider making
Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
USAGE OF CIDER
Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
Figure 33: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
Apple cider benefits most from in-home drinking the off-trade
Figure 34: Types of cider drunk, by location, October 2016
Figure 35: Overall usage of cider, by gender, age and socio-economic group, October 2016
INTEREST IN INNOVATION
Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
Local ciders can offer a USP for pubs and supermarkets
Cider traditional in other countries also resonate widely
Figure 36: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
Opportunities in barrel-ageing
Still room for more flavour innovation
Dessert-flavours build associations with indulgence
The rise of sour beers could lift the profile of sour flavours within cider
Figure 37: Consumers who have not yet bought cider with selected flavours but would be interested in buying in the future, by age group, October 2016
Scope to encourage more consumers to drink mulled cider at home
APPEALING FACTORS
The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
High-quality ingredients have strong appeal
Figure 38: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
Skilled artisanship and traditional methods resonate widely
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CIDER
Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
Scope to borrow cues from wine
In-store activity is need to inspire shoppers when it matters
Figure 39: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
An appetite for knowing more about cider making
The cider offering can be made into a bigger selling point for pubs
Strong interest in cider offering
Social media offers a platform for driving venues’ cider credentials
WHAT DEFINES A “GREAT” CIDER?
Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
Figure 40: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
Authenticity chimes among over-55s
Trendiness and sophistication are on a par among under-35s for marking a “great” cider
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by volume, 2016-21
Forecast methodology

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