Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Poultry sales are stagnant
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
- The price of beef is falling fast
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- Figure 2: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-16
- Young consumers need education
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- Figure 3: Poultry statement agreement, August 2016
- The opportunities
- Consumers rank poultry highly on many key attributes
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- Figure 4: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
- Consumers are open to new poultry products
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- Figure 5: Poultry product interest, August 2016
- Retailers can charge more for claims
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- Figure 6: Poultry claims appeal, September 2016
- What it means
The Market - What You Need to Know
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- Poultry market is relatively flat
- Making a “better” poultry product
- The modern American cook
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of poultry flat amid falling beef prices
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Chicken experiences stagnant growth
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2011-21
- Turkey drives sales of “other poultry”
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken and other poultry, at current prices, 2011-21
- Supermarkets remain the most common poultry source
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Market Perspective
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- Fried chicken becomes a trendy menu item
- Falling price of beef rocks the market
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- Figure 14: US city average price per lb of 100% ground beef, Jan 2010-Aug 2016
- Figure 15: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-16
- Foodservice trends may spur seafood consumption
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Factors
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- Price of poultry falls amid strong dollar
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- Figure 17: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-August 16
- Consumers look for clean labels
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- Figure 18: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, Winter 2013-2016
- Perdue sets the precedent for a “better chicken”
- American households are shrinking
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- Figure 19: Family and non-family households, 2005-15
- Figure 20: Number of live births in thousands by year, 2000-14
- Engaging the at-home cook
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- Figure 21: At home cooks segmentation, by generation, August 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Major brands falling behind
- Keep it convenient
- Where are your claims?
- Meal kit mania
Manufacturer Sales of Poultry
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- Tyson commands market dominance but faces falling sales
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016
- Chicken sales slide
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Maxwell Farms/Seaboard sees increase in market share
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Consumers are cool toward other poultry
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Convenience is a point of entry
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- Figure 27: New Poultry Products, convenience claims, 2012-16
- Consumers are making the switch to free-from and feel-good poultry
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- Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
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- Figure 29: Poultry product launches, by select claims, 2012-2016
- Figure 30: Poultry product launches, by select claims, 2012-2016
- Butterball experiences continued success with its Everyday brand
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- Figure 31: Butterball Ad, “Meet the Turketarians”
What’s Struggling?
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- Non free-from claims poultry fails to capture consumers
What’s Next?
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- Satisfy snackers
- Flavors of the world
- Marketing “air chilled” to consumers
- Meal kits take the hassle out of cooking
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Know your consumer
- Looking for claims
- Young consumers are organic poultry purchasers
- Poultry offers consumers many benefits
- Consumers may need more education
Poultry Purchases
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- Chicken is a household staple
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- Figure 32: Poultry purchases, any poultry product, August 2016
- Chicken purchases
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- Figure 33: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, August 2016
- Women are key chicken consumers
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- Figure 34: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by gender, August 2016
- Boomers are regular raw chicken purchasers
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- Figure 35: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by generation, August 2016
- Chicken purchases by select demographics
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- Figure 36: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by select demographics, August 2016
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- Figure 37: Poultry purchases, Chicken products, by select demographics, August 2016
- Turkey purchases
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- Figure 38: Poultry purchases, turkey products, August 2016
- Market the versatility of ground turkey to women
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- Figure 39: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by gender, August 2016
- Millennials drive turkey product purchases
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- Figure 40: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by generation, August 2016
- Turkey purchases by select demographics
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- Figure 41: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by select demographics, August 2016
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- Figure 42: Poultry purchases, turkey products, by select demographics, August 2016
Poultry Claims
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- Consumer confusion over poultry claims
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- Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by antibiotic-free claim, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
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- Figure 44: Poultry claims appeal, September 2016
- In their own words: poultry claims and “premium” poultry
- Men are the target for premium poultry
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- Figure 45: Poultry claims appeal, by gender, September 2016
- Reach iGen/Millennials with organics
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- Figure 46: Poultry claims appeal, by generation, September 2016
- Courting the affluent consumer
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- Figure 47: Poultry claims appeal, by income, September 2016
Price Sensitivity Analysis
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- Methodology
- Organic and humanely-raised command a high price premium
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- Figure 48: Price sensitivity analysis results, all products, September 2016
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- Figure 49: Claim overlap, ethical-animal claim poultry product that also has an organic claim
- Figure 50: Claim overlap, organic claim poultry product that also has an ethical-animal claim
- Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts
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- Figure 51: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
- Figure 52: 2 lbs boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
- Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts
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- Figure 53: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
- Figure 54: 2 lbs organic boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
- Price sensitivity analysis charts: 2 lbs humanely-raised boneless skinless chicken breasts
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- Figure 55: 2 lbs humanely-raised boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
- Figure 56: 2 lbs humanely raised boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
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- Figure 57: 2 lbs air-chilled boneless skinless chicken breasts – optimal price, August 2016
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- Figure 58: 2 lbs air-chilled boneless skinless chicken breasts – threshold prices, August 2016
Poultry Perception
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- Consumers think highly of poultry
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- Figure 59: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
- In their own words: Poultry versus Beef
- Women value the ease of poultry
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- Figure 60: Protein associations, poultry, by age, August 2016
- Brands can do more to engage with younger consumers
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- Figure 61: Protein associations, poultry, by age, August 2016
- Poultry is a favorite protein for moms
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- Figure 62: Protein associations, poultry, by parents, August 2016
- Rural consumers drive positive poultry associations
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- Figure 63: Protein associations, poultry, by area, August 2016
Poultry Product Interest
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- Take the stress out of cooking
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- Figure 64: Poultry product interest, August 2016
- Women are open to new poultry products
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- Figure 65: Poultry product interest, by gender, August 2016
- Engage consumers from different generations with new products
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- Figure 66: Poultry product interest, by generation, August 2016
- Parents are a target market for product introductions
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- Figure 67: Poultry product interest, by parents, August 2016
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- Figure 68: Poultry product interest, by number of children, August 2016
- There is a need to attract more urban consumers
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- Figure 69: Poultry product interest, by area, August 2016
CHAID Analysis: Poultry Meal Kits
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- Target the poultry meal kit consumer
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- Figure 70: Poultry product interest – CHAID – Tree output, August 2016
Poultry Statement Agreement
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- Issues and opportunities in the poultry industry
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- Figure 71: Poultry statement agreement, August 2016
- Feel-good clean label products appeal to women
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- Figure 72: Poultry statement agreement, by gender, August 2016
- Younger consumers require education
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- Figure 73: Poultry statement agreement, by generation, August 2016
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- Figure 74: Poultry statement agreement, I am worried about undercooking my poultry, by age and gender, August 2016
- Attitudes and behaviors of Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 75: Poultry statement agreement, by Hispanic origin, August 2016
- Appealing to parents
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- Figure 76: Poultry statement agreement, by parents, August 2016
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- Figure 77: Poultry statement agreement, organic processed poultry products are worth paying more for, by age of parent, August 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- SPINSscan
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 10/5/14 - 10/2/16
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- Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
- Figure 82: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 10/5/14 and 10/2/16
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 83: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, Winter 2013-2016
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Appendix – CHAID
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- Figure 84: Poultry purchase interest – CHAID – Table output, August 2016
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