Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Cheese market sees flat volumes and modest value growth over 2011-16
- Volume decline forecast for cheese over 2016-21
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of cheese, 2011-21
- Cheddar’s share of cheese continues its fall below half
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales of cheese, by type, by value and volume, 2016 (est)
- Companies and brands
- Own-label dominates but losing share, Cathedral City remains top brand
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- Figure 3: Leading brands in the UK cheese market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Protein claim leaps ahead in 2016, Morrisons expands fair price to farmers
- Adspend up by 15% in 2015, fuelled by spreadable and continental cheese
- The consumer
- More Brits buy cheese than last year
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- Figure 4: Purchasing of cheese, by type, 2014-16
- Stronger flavour appeals to nearly half
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- Figure 5: Factors influencing choice when buying cheese, July 2016
- Over three quarters of users eat cheese in a sandwich
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- Figure 6: Occasions for eating/using cheese, July 2016
- Education and sampling offer scope to win over new users
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- Figure 7: Cheese buying and usage behaviours, July 2016
- Protein and usage suggestions can be selling points for cheese
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards cheese, July 2016
- Blue cheese seen most widely as special
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- Figure 9: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of cheese, July 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Fair pay for dairy farmers could build value for British cheese
- The facts
- The implications
- Cheese needs new usage occasions as sliced bread sales fall
- The facts
- The implications
- Scope for cheese to capitalise on protein trend
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Volume decline forecast for cheese over 2016-21
- Cheddar’s share of cheese continues its fall below half
- Weakening Pound pushes import prices up
Market Size and Forecast
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- Cheese market sees flat volumes and marginal value decline over 2011-16
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- Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of cheese, 2011-21
- Volume decline expected for cheese over 2016-21
- Cheese prices expected to creep up
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cheese, 2011-21
- Figure 12: UK retail volume sales of cheese, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
- Cheese spend was resilient in the previous slowdown
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- Figure 13: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit UK retail cheese market, at current prices, 2016-21
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- Figure 14: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for cheese, at current prices, 2016-21
- Little immediate reaction among grocery shoppers
- Consumers are already shopping savvily
- Squeeze on real incomes may benefit cheese
- Weakened Pound to affect milk and cheese imports
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Cheddar’s share of cheese continues its fall below half
- Recipe cheese sales keep rising
- Soft white cheese’s share projected to shrink
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- Figure 15: UK retail sales of cheese, by type, 2014-16
- Mature cheddar dominates market
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales of cheddar, by type, 2014-16
- Mild cheddar loses out
Market Drivers
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- Rock-bottom milk prices lead to fall in the average price of cheese
- Hike in milk prices could prove beneficial to big cheese brands
- Weakening of the Pound will push up prices of imports
- Falling sliced bread sales could cut through cheese sales
- Reduced dairy intake recommendation could dampen demand for cheese
- E. coli outbreak stands to knock unpasteurised cheese sales
- Brexit could see British cheeses lose name protection
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-labels dominate but are losing share
- Cathedral City remains top brand despite falling value sales
- Protein claim leaps ahead in 2016
- Morrisons’ commitment to pay dairy farmers a fair price should appeal
- Adspend increased by 15% in 2015
- Spreadable and continental cheese overtake cheddar adspend
Market Share
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- Own-labels dominate but are losing share
- Cathedral City remains top brand despite falling value sales
- Serious value decline for Seriously Strong
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- Figure 17: Leading brands in the UK cheese market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Mondelēz holds onto second place despite diverse brand performance
- Arla Foods loses market share as Anchor Cheddar sales plummet
- Adams Foods overtakes Nestlé helped by ‘zany’ Pilgrims Choice ad
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- Figure 18: Leading manufacturers in the UK cheese market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Brands and own-labels battle it out
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- Figure 19: New product launches in the cheese market, by private label and brands, 2012-16
- Retailers lead cheese launches in 2015
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- Figure 20: New product launches in the cheese market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Companies make packaging more convenient
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- Figure 21: New product launches in the cheese market, by top 10 claims (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Protein claim leaps ahead in 2016
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- Figure 22: New product launches in the cheese market with high-protein claim, 2012-16
- Adult cheese snack launches continue
- Bel looks to packaging innovation to drive interest
- Cheestrings divides fans with new on-pack film promotion
- Retailer looks to pay dairy farmers a fair price
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend increases by 15% in 2015
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- Figure 23: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, 2012-16
- Adspend on cheddar falls
- Spreadable and continental cheese overtake cheddar adspend
- Dairylea returns with promotion, boosting processed cheese and snacks/dips
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- Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by product type, 2012-16
- Figure 25: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by product type, 2012-16
- Bel UK is top advertiser by spend
- Mondelēz continues to spend big on Philadelphia
- Savencia spends big on continental brands
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- Figure 26: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by top five advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
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- Figure 27: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by top five advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by top five brands (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
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- Figure 29: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cheese, by top five brands (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand Research – What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 31: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2016
- Brand attitudes: Cathedral City seen most widely as a brand with consistently high quality
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- Figure 32: Attitudes, by brand, September 2016
- Brand personality: Babybel considered to be the most fun
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- Figure 33: Brand personality – macro image, September 2016
- Dairylea is strong on family but many deem it unhealthy and basic
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- Figure 34: Brand personality – micro image, September 2016
- Brand analysis
- Cathedral City has the best reputation
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- Figure 35: User profile of Cathedral City, September 2016
- Seriously Strong has a more indulgent image than cheddar rivals
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- Figure 36: User profile of Seriously Strong, September 2016
- Pilgrims Choice seen to stand out despite lack of diversity
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- Figure 37: User profile of Pilgrims Choice, September 2016
- Philadelphia has a healthy and vibrant image
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- Figure 38: User profile of Philadelphia, September 2016
- Babybel stands out as fun and cool
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- Figure 39: User profile of Babybel, September 2016
- Dairylea has strong family ties
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- Figure 40: User profile of Dairylea, September 2016
The Consumer – What You Need To Know
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- More Brits buy cheese than last year
- Younger consumers drive low-fat cheese sales
- Stronger flavour appeals to nearly half
- Over three quarters of users eat cheese in a sandwich
- Consumers want cheese suitable for the whole family
- Education and sampling offer scope to win over new users
- Protein can be a selling point for cheese
- High openness to usage suggestions
- Blue cheese seen most widely as special
Cheese Purchase Habits
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- More Brits are buying cheese than last year
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- Figure 41: Purchasing of cheese, by type, 2014-16
- Continental hard cheese gains ground
- 85% of British consumers buy cheddar
- 16-24s less likely to see cheddar as versatile
- Spreadable cheddar extends into the snacking market
- Younger consumers drive low-fat cheese sales
- Three in four consumers eat cheddar at least once a week
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- Figure 42: Frequency of eating cheese, by type, July 2016
Factors Influencing Choice of Cheese
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- Stronger flavour appeals to nearly half
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- Figure 43: Factors influencing choice when buying cheese, July 2016
- Low brand loyalty in a market awash with price promotions
- Only a fifth of cheese buyers look for British ingredients
- More affluent groups more interested in product origin
Occasions for Eating/Using Cheese
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- Over three quarters of users eat cheese in a sandwich
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- Figure 44: Occasions for eating/using cheese, July 2016
- Three in five use cheese as an ingredient in hot meals
- Half of parents buy cheese as a snack for children
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- Figure 45: Occasions for eating/using cheese – as a snack for my child(ren), by age of children, July 2016
- Scope to capitalise on baking fever
Cheese Buying and Usage Behaviours
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- Consumers want cheese suitable for the whole family
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- Figure 46: Cheese buying and usage behaviours, July 2016
- Cheese users want to try before they buy
- Cheese knowledge lacking amongst half of cheese users
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- Figure 47: Agreement with the statement “I am knowledgeable about different types of cheese”, by socio-economic group, July 2016
Attitudes towards Cheese
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- Protein can be a selling point for cheese
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards cheese, July 2016
- Half of users/buyers deem cheese a healthy snack
- Half think eating healthier cheese is better than reducing consumption
- On-pack recipes would inspire more experimentation with cheese
Qualities Associated with Types of Cheese
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- Methodology
- Cheese thought to be boring by only a minority
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- Figure 49: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of cheese, July 2016
- Cream cheese seen most widely to go off quickly
- Blue cheese seen most commonly as special
- Cream cheese may be losing out in the ‘clean label’ trend
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- Figure 50: Qualities associated with different types of cheese, July 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast for UK retail value sales of cheese, 2016-21
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast for UK retail volume sales of cheese, 2016-21
- Forecast methodology
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