Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Retail sales value is forecast to grow 36% by 2021
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- Figure 1: Forecast of Brazil retail sales of bread and baked goods, by value, 2011-21
- Market drivers
- Changes in packaging to offer an extra security layer to consumers
- The population is aging
- The economy is going through a bad time
- Key players
- Grupo Bimbo is the market leader with 30.2% of market share by value
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- Figure 2: Value shares in the bread and baked goods retail market, 2014 and 2015
- The consumer
- Bread is eaten by 97% of Brazilians
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- Figure 3: Usage of bread and baked goods, May 2016
- Concerns about health present a challenge
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- Figure 4: Barriers to eating packaged bread more often, May 2016
- Value for money is essential in the category
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward bread and baked goods, May 2016
- Gaining consumers by using fresh products
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- Figure 6: Interest in bread and baked goods innovations, May 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- On-the-go claims are underdeveloped in the bread category
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 7: Bread and baked goods focused on on-the-go consumption, worldwide
- Increasing snacking consumption
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 8: Unusual flavors for bread and baked goods, worldwide
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Retail sales value is forecast to reach R$7.5 billion by 2021
- Changes in legislation to offer extra information to consumers
Market Size and Forecast
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- Worldwide bread and baked goods market
- Market performance
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- Figure 9: Retail sales of bread and baked goods in Brazil, by value, 2011-15
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- Figure 10: Retail sales of bread and baked goods in Brazil, by volume, 2011-15
- Segment performance
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- Figure 11: Retail value sales of bread and baked goods, in R$ billion, 2014-15
- Figure 12: Retail volume sales of bread and baked goods, in (000) tons, 2014-15
- Forecast for the bread and baked goods market
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- Figure 13: Forecast of Brazil retail sales of bread and baked goods, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 14: Forecast of Brazil retail sales of bread and baked goods, by volume, 2011-21
Market Drivers
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- Promotion of organic and sustainable food
- 6.2% of Brazilian adults have diabetes and 21.4% have hypertension
- Aging population
- The Brazilian economy is struggling
- Interest and unemployment rates remain stable
- Inflation is showing signs of slowing down
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- Figure 15: IPCA monthly change, by percentage, January 2014-June 2016
Regulatory and Legislative Changes
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- Changes in labels to include allergens and lactose content
- Anvisa intends to re-create legislation over whole-grain bread
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Grupo Bimbo leads the market with 30.2% of market share by value
- Focusing on products with no additives/preservatives
Market Share
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- Grupo Bimbo is the leading company by both value and volume
- Wickbold acquires Seven Boys
- Other companies operating in the market
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- Figure 16: Value shares in the bread and baked goods retail market, 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 17: Volume shares in the bread and baked goods retail market, 2014 and 2015
Who’s Innovating?
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- Bread products with no additives have seen a rise
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- Figure 18: New organic bread and baked goods, Brazil
- Figure 19: New whole-grain and no additives/preservatives bread and baked goods, brazil
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- Figure 20: NPD with ‘natural’ claims, Brazil, 2011-16
- Bread products lack in added attributes
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- Figure 21: NPD with ‘plus’ claims, Brazil, 2011-16
- Bimbo launches the Zero% line
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- Figure 22: Zero% line, Bimbo, Brazil
- Forno de Minas launches new cheese bread variety
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- Figure 23: Pão de Queijo Congelado Fit, Brazil
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- Figure 24: NPD in cheese bread, Brazil
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Bread is an essential staple in Brazilian households
- Health poses a threat to the category
- Consumers are feeling the economic recession
- Freshness and brand are key in the category
Usage of Bread
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- Bread is universally eaten by Brazilians
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- Figure 25: Usage of bread and baked goods, any type, May 2016
- French rolls remain the most consumed
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- Figure 26: Usage of bread and baked goods, French roll, May 2016
- Packaged bread is eaten by 75%
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- Figure 27: Usage of bread and baked goods, French roll, May 2016
- ABs dominate usage of packaged bread
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- Figure 28: Usage of bread and baked goods, May 2016
Barriers to Eating Packaged Bread More Often
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- Health concern is the main barrier to eating more
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- Figure 29: Barriers to eating packaged bread more often, May 2016
- Reducing carbohydrate content
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- Figure 30: Bread and baked goods with reduced carbohydrate, worldwide
- Smaller formats for reduced calories
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- Figure 31: “Thin” varieties, worldwide
- Sprouted grains breads to offer more nutrition
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- Figure 32: Sprouted grain breads, worldwide
- Innovations in all-natural and high satiety to boost consumption
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- Figure 33: Bread and baked goods with ‘all-natural’ claim, worldwide
- Figure 34: Bread and baked goods with ‘high-satiety’ claim, worldwide
- Figure 35: Barriers to eating packaged bread more often, May 2016
Attitudes toward Bread and Baked Goods
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- Consumers are looking for cheaper varieties of bread
- Wider variety of gluten-free products can help boost consumption
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- Figure 36: NPD in gluten-free products, Brazil, 2011-16
- Figure 37: New gluten-free products, Brazil, 2016
- Revamping private labels of bread and baked goods
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- Figure 38: Share of NPD by branded and private label, brazil
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- Figure 39: Private label bread and baked good products, Brazil
- Figure 40: Attitudes toward bread and baked goods, May 2016
Interest in Bread and Baked Goods Innovations
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- Brands play a strong role
- Freshness is essential in the category
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- Figure 41: The Essential Baking Company’s Super Seeded Multi-Grain Gluten-Free Rolls, US
- 53% are interested in bread with added seeds
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- Figure 42: Bread and baked goods with added seeds or grains, Brazil, 2015-16
- Bread focused on fitness
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- Figure 43: High protein bread, Brazil
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- Figure 44: High-protein bread, worldwide
- Evening bread
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- Figure 45: Večerní Chlebík, Czech republic, February 2016
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- Figure 46: Interest in bread and baked goods innovations, May 2016
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 47: Retail value sales for bread and baked goods, 2011-21
- Figure 48: Retail volume sales for bread and baked goods, 2011-21
- Figure 49: Additional best case/ worst case for value
- Figure 50: Additional best case/ worst case for volume
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Appendix – Methodology and Definitions
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- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
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