Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales of on-premise alcohol are experiencing steady growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
- Gen Xers and Boomers are infrequent on-premise drinkers
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- Figure 2: On-premise alcohol consumption frequency, at least weekly, by generation, February 2016
- Drink type loyalists won’t branch out
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- Figure 3: AFH new drink trial motivators, by number of different types of alcoholic beverages consumed AFH, February 2016
- There is a disconnect between what consumers want and what is trendy
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- Figure 4: Appealing alcoholic beverage descriptors, any rank, February 2016
- The opportunities
- Consumers want drinks that complement their meals
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- Figure 5: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, any agree, February 2016
- Millennials drink often and order a variety of drinks
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- Figure 6: Repertoire analysis of beverages consumed, typically consume 3+ different beverage types AFH, by select demographics, February 2016
- IPAs, liquors, and dessert wines are making their marks on menus
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- Figure 7: Growth of select alcoholic beverages on menus, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- On-premise alcohol sales grow steadily
- A positive economy leads to bar sales
- Craft beer is here to stay
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of on-premise alcohol continue to grow; will soon pass $100 billion annually
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Americans are cautiously optimistic about the economy
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- Figure 11: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-March 2016
- Figure 12: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-March 2016
- Number of breweries at all-time high. Craft distilleries also on the rise.
- Millennials are key consumers, but the money is with the older generation
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- Figure 13: Population by generation, 2011-21
- Figure 14: Median household income, by age of householder, 2014
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurants are upgrading their alcohol programs
- New bars are making drinking a full experience
- Mixers and light beer are struggling to keep up with trends
- Trends are shaping bars/restaurants
What’s Working?
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- Restaurant bars get a makeover
- FSR chains become beer-centric
- All fresh everything
- Make your mark on social media
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- Figure 15: Mentions of spirits and drinking at bar/restaurant, April 2013-16
What’s Struggling?
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- Light beer struggles with its identity
- Premade alcohol mixers face an image problem
The New Bars
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- An emerging segment offers opportunity for all alcohol brands
- Barcades
- Taprooms/distilleries
- Tiki bars
What’s Next?
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- Foodservice trend: New bar stars
- Bar tech
- Nitro beer
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- Figure 16: Nitro beers released in 2016
- Low alcohol cocktails
- Hard soda
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- Figure 17: Hard soda examples from GNPD
- Nice ice
- Will fermented tea be the next trendy ingredient?
- Great opportunity exists for flavored beer
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- Figure 18: Beer launches by flavor, 2010 and 2015
- Figure 19: Examples of flavored beer launched in 2016
MMI Analysis
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- On-premise alcohol growth
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- Figure 20: Growth of alcohol at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Beer: IPAs drive overall growth
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- Figure 21: Top 10 beers at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Wine
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- Figure 22: All wine at restaurants and % growth, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Red wine
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- Figure 23: Top 10 red wines at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- White wine
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- Figure 24: Top menued white wines at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Dessert/fortified, sparkling, and non-grape wine
- Liquor and cocktails
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- Figure 25: Top menued liquors at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Whiskey
- Tequila
- Rum
- Gin
- Cocktail menus get more specialized
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- Figure 26: Top 10 cocktails at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015
- Cocktail ingredients
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- Figure 27: Beer/cider cocktails at restaurants, Q4 2015
- The bitter truth about liqueurs
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- Figure 28: Elderflower-flavored alcoholic beverages released in 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Millennials are key consumers
- Consumers are most interested in familiar drink flavors
- Word-of-mouth is a powerful motivator
- Not all drinkers are the same
Away from Home Alcohol Consumption
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- On-premise alcohol consumption frequency varies by demographics
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- Figure 29: On-premise alcohol consumption frequency, February 2016
- Figure 30: On-premise alcohol consumption frequency, at least weekly, by select demographics, February 2016
- Consumers plan on spending more at bars in 2016
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- Figure 31: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic drinks (out of home), January 2013-16.
Alcohol Consumed On-premise
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- Beer is the most consumed alcoholic drink on-premise
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- Figure 32: Alcoholic beverages typically consumed AFH, February 2016
- Millennials, Hispanics, urbanites, and the affluent drink a variety of alcoholic beverages AFH
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- Figure 33: Repertoire of beverages consumed, February 2016
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- Figure 34: Repertoire of beverages consumed, typically consume 3+ different beverage types AFH, by select demographics, February 2016
- Drink preferences of the “drink loyalist”
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- Figure 35: Alcoholic beverages typically consumed AFH, by consumers who typically drink one type of alcoholic beverage AFH, February 2016
Drinker Profiles
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- Beverage drinker indexes
- Beer/cider drinkers
- Beer drinkers vary dramatically by beer of choice
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- Figure 36: Drinker indexes: Any beer, non-craft domestic, imported, craft, and hard cider drinkers, February 2016
- Wine and champagne/sparkling wine drinkers
- Age differences exist among wine versus champagne drinkers
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- Figure 37: Drinker indexes: Any wine, wine (excluding sparkling), and sparkling wine drinkers, February 2016
- Cocktail and spirit drinkers
- Marketing to the neat/on the rocks drinker
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- Figure 38: Drinker indexes: Spirit neat/on the rocks, spirit with mixer, shot drinkers, February 2016
- Not all cocktail drinkers are the same
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- Figure 39: Drinker indexes: Any cocktail, tropical cocktail, classic cocktail, craft cocktail, after dinner drinkers, February 2016
Drink Trial Motivators
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- Specials, word-of-mouth, and a clear menu motivate trial
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- Figure 40: AFH new drink trial motivators, February 2016
- In their own words: Motivators for trying new drinks
- Women value recommendations. Men are brand loyal.
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- Figure 41: AFH new drink trial motivators, by genders, February 2016
- Drink type loyalists are elusive consumers
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- Figure 42: AFH new drink trial motivators, by number of different types of alcoholic beverages consumed AFH, February 2016
Alcoholic Beverage Flavor Interest
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- Consumers respond to familiar flavor profiles
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- Figure 43: Appealing alcoholic beverage descriptors, any rank, February 2016
- Men and women have vastly different flavor preferences
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- Figure 44: Appealing alcoholic beverage descriptors, any rank, by gender, February 2016
- Gen Xers and Boomers crave a “smooth” drinking experience
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- Figure 45: Appealing alcoholic beverage descriptors, any rank, by gender, February 2016
Alcohol Attitudes and Perceptions
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- Food/drink pairings and other areas of opportunity
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- Figure 46: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, any agree, February 2016
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- Figure 47: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, “I like to experiment by trying new alcoholic drinks away from home,” any agree, by generation, February 2016
- On-premise alcohol brand attitudes
- In their own words: Branded spirits in cocktails
- Perception of craft alcohol
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- Figure 48: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, “‘Craft’ alcohol brands are higher quality than big brands,” any agree, by generation, February 2016
- In their own words: Craft alcohol brands
- Consumers typically stick to one type of drink when they go out
- Alcohol brand matters more to men
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- Figure 49: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, any agree, by gender, February 2016
- Urbanites are adventuresome drinkers
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- Figure 50: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, any agree, by area, February 2016
- Craft beer drinkers care more about the pour
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- Figure 51: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, “Draft beer tastes better than bottled or canned beer,” any agree, by beer drinkers, February 2016
CHAID Analysis – Ultra-premium Spirit Drinkers
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- Methodology
- Millennial neat/on the rocks drinkers value ultra-premium spirits
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- Figure 52: AFH alcoholic beverage statement agreement, CHAID – Tree, February 2016
Qualitative Analysis – Drink Frustrations
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- Panelists cite drink price as a major frustration
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Social media methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 53: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 54: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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Appendix – Consumer
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- CHAID Analysis
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- Figure 55: Attitudes toward drinks – CHAID – Table output, February 2016
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