Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- The pinch of the economy will make economical foodservice options more appealing
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- Figure 1: Venues dined at, February 2016
- Women are less likely to dine in on a weekly basis
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- Figure 2: Frequency dined out, by gender, February 2016
- Consumers are strapped for time and many seek greater efficiency in the dining experience
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- Figure 3: Attitudes towards dining out (any agree), by presence of children, February 2016
- The opportunities
- Expanding day parts through snacking options
- Appeal to women through smaller portion sizes, more healthful offerings and customization
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- Figure 4: Foodservice opportunities, by gender, February 2016
- Creating FOMO may be particularly effective in increasing foot traffic – particularly for Chinese Canadians
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards dining out, overall vs Chinese Canadians, February 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Economic pressure on Canadians leads to more conservative spending on non-essentials, including eating out
- Immigration may work to counterbalance the effects of an aging population
- A ‘baby boomlet’ means a growing need for dining efficiency
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historic and projected sales performance
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- Figure 6: Total Canada sales and fan chart forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 7: Canada value sales for restaurants and other eating places, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Segment performance
- Sales for coffee shops predicted to slow
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- Figure 8: Forecast of Canada sales for coffee shops, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Canada value sales for coffee shops, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Fast food and takeaway sales predicted to plateau
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- Figure 10: Forecast of Canada sales for fast food and takeaway, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 11: Canada value sales for fast food and takeaway, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Restaurant sales are also predicted to flatten
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- Figure 12: Forecast of Canada sales for restaurants, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 13: Canada value sales for restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Economic factors
- Cost of food has been impacted by inflation
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- Figure 14: Consumer price index, February 2010-February 2016
- The weak Canadian dollar is impacting import costs
- Household debt levels are adding pressure to Canadian spending habits
- What this means for foodservice operators
- Demographic factors
- The population is ethnically diverse and aging
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- Figure 15: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- What this means for grocery shoppers and retailers
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- QSRs and fast casuals are winning
- Snacking and lunch options draw Canadian diners
- The role of technology continues to grow
- The foodservice space becomes more crowded with food halls
What’s Working?
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- Limited-service restaurants and fast casuals deliver on cost and quality
- Lunch as a key eating occasion
What’s Struggling?
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- Full-service restaurants will need to do more to attract customers
What’s Next?
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- Technology continues to evolve the dining experience
- The presence of food halls is rising
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- A mature market, snacking and lunch offerings will help increase traffic
- Quality of food wins over quality of service
- Regulars want variety
- TV commercials remain an effective communication tool
Dining Out – Where, Who and How Often?
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- Canadians are loyal patrons of foodservice providers
- Consumers are drawn to lower-cost foodservice providers
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- Figure 16: Venues dined at, February 2016
- Parents are most likely to be eating out at fast food restaurants
- Some four in 10 who eat out at foodservice operators do so weekly
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- Figure 17: Frequency dined out, February 2016
- Men, fathers and Chinese Canadians are the most likely to be weekly diners
- Grocery retailers have good potential to extend their reach – particularly among Millennials and parents
- Expansion of QSR menus may be widening the gap
Quality of Food Trumps Quality of Service
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- Food quality is king
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- Figure 18: Choice factors (any rank), February 2016
- Figure 19: Attitudes towards dining out, February 2016
- Quality of food vs quality of service – in their words
- Seeing familiar brands helps reinforce perceptions of quality and opens up opportunities for limited-time offers
Value Matters
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- Diners want more value offerings
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- Figure 20: Foodservice opportunities, February 2016
- Value deals will resonate with the more budget-minded, though communicating these requires a multi-pronged approach
- Playing to the audience
Limited-time Offers, Pop-up Events and Secret Menus
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- Keeping diners engaged by tantalizing the taste and physical experience
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- Figure 21: Deal-related attitudes towards dining out, February 2016
- Variety for the taste buds will resonate with men
- Millennials want in on the secret – FOMO for pop-ups and secret menus
- Chinese Canadians want it all
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- Figure 22: Attitudes towards dining out, overall vs Chinese Canadians, February 2016
Healthy Eating and Customization are Sought by Women
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- The ability to personalize orders and the availability of healthier options will draw women
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- Figure 23: Foodservice opportunities, by age of female, February 2016
- Healthier substitutions make an ideal combo – in their words
- Wooing women with portion size options and healthy snacking items
Efficiency in the Dining Experience and Snacking Opportunities
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- Canadians who eat out seek an efficient dining experience
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- Figure 24: Efficiency-related attitudes towards dining out, February 2016
- Parents with children under-18 at home are most interested in quicker visits
- Potential lies in expanding foodservice patronage to include snacking
Connecting with Customers – Commercials and Social Media Presence
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- Commercials remain an effective communication tool, though online presence must be managed
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- Figure 25: Media-related attitudes towards dining out, February 2016
- Desire for responsiveness on social media is stronger among French-speaking households
Dining Out – How Canadian Diners Compare to Americans
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- Canadians and Americans are alike in their preference for more casual fare
- Grocery stores are encroaching on the dining-in territory
- How Tim Hortons is winning: coffee shops see greater traction as an eat-in venue amongst Canadians
- Economic conditions will drive marketing strategies required in each country
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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