• A challenging year for beer, but the best growth since 2011

  • Major brewers seek to re-assert control over disruptive craft brands

  • The mega-merger between AB InBev and SABMiller likely to trigger more deals in 2016

Overall, 2015 was a challenging year for major brewers ― and a year in which they sought to re-assert control. The global beer market is undergoing a radical shift as craft beer continues to disrupt the category. In 2015, over a fifth (21%) of all beer innovation into retail was beer that was craft-positioned, and major brewers, led by AB InBev have accelerated their acquisitions of craft players as they seek to revive growth, especially in developed markets.

Challenging economic conditions in Russia, China, and Brazil – all key markets - also meant that beer volume sales were affected. Nevertheless, among key global markets, volumes in 2015 are estimated to have grown by 1.3%, according to Mintel estimates, which, while still modest, represents the category’s best performance since 2011.

Craft beer continues to increase its global reach, having built up a 19% value share of the US market over the past two decades, according to figures from the Brewers Association. US craft producers are having a huge influence on the development of this segment overseas, such as the rise of the IPA, but individual countries are also making their own mark on craft beer innovation. For example, Italian craft beer producers have incorporated wine techniques into their brewing.

The big story of the year was the merger of AB InBev and SABMiller ― the world’s two largest brewers. If the deal gets through regulators during 2016, it will mean that one brewer accounts for almost a third of all beers sold. This is likely to stimulate further merger and acquisitions as global competitors both seek to play catch-up and compete for brands and businesses that the new global mega-brewer is being forced to offload.

Figure 1: Beer, global market performance
[graphic: image 1]
Note: The size of each bubble represents the respective size of the market in volume.
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, the Brewers Association of Australia and New Zealand, IBGE, Economist Intelligence Unit, Beer Canada, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Association des Brasseurs de France, Information Resources, Inc., DBB, The Nielsen Company, Biro Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia), Pivnoe Delo (''Beer Business''), Statistics Korea, Korea Alcohol & Liquor Industry Association, Korea Customs Service, TAPDK, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Beverage Information Group, The Beer Institute, BevNet/Mintel

* Please note: the market size data referenced in this report is current as of January 31, 2016

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