• Mature markets suffer volume declines, while growth comes mainly from developing countries

• Cold-pressed juice is a bright spot for the category’s image

• Juice brands may follow alcohol and CSDs in attracting consumers who “drink less, but better”

The global juice category has struggled for growth in recent years, with mature markets such as the US, Canada, Australia, UK and other major European markets seeing several years of retail market volume declines. Growth is mainly coming from developing markets in Asia Pacific and Latin America, where there is still room for packaged juice to grow by taking share from fresh-squeezed juice and by moving into smaller cities and more rural areas.

In India, for example, local fruit juice manufacturer Manpasand Beverages found success focusing on semi-urban and rural markets, where growth is fuelled by rising disposable incomes and a void left by bigger brands that have largely stuck to urban centers. Manpasand announced plans to go public in 2015 to fund additional growth potential, making it one of the few homegrown juice manufacturers in India to do so.

In more developed markets, a bright spot for the category can be found in the growth of cold-pressed juices. While cold-pressed brands are quite niche and have yet to make a dent in overall volumes, they have brought positive attention back to the category. Cold-pressed juices tend to feature heavy vegetable content and a focus on vitamins, minerals, enzymes and other nutrition attributes rather than the traditional and generic 5-a-Day messages. Many cold-pressed brands have their roots in juice cleanse or detox programs, and have thus helped some consumers reconsider juice as a tool for weight management rather than something to be avoided in those efforts.

Additionally, the trend has created a tier for luxury juices in markets where such products previously did not exist. In China, for example, products such as VCleanse and Hey Juice are priced at a significant premium to both fresh squeezed and other packaged juices.

Juice manufacturers will be challenged to continue building positive associations and add value to the category in the coming year. Despite the positive momentum behind the cold-pressed juice trend, the category still suffers from negative press about sugar content, and while many consumers remain unconcerned about natural/inherent sources of sugar, the associations have cast a shadow over juice’s healthy image. Average retail market volume across key global markets is only expected to grow 0.4% for 2015.

Average value growth across the major global markets (as measured in local currency) is projected to be slightly higher, at 3.2%, and some brands may be inspired to focus more on added value and premiumization, taking a page from carbonated soft drinks and some alcohol categories, and finding ways to appeal to consumers who would “drink less, but better.”

Figure 1: Top 5 global juice markets by retail market volume, mn liters, 2015

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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Information Resources, Inc., Market Analitika, INEGI, Destatis, Wafg, GfK Group / Mintel

Figure 3: Global market performance, juice and juice drinks

Note: CAGR figures are based on the value of the market in the local currency over the last five years. The size of each bubble represents the respective size of the market in volume

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Source: IBRAF, Economist Intelligence Unit, UNIJUS, Information Resources, Inc., Destatis, Wafg, GfK Group, ASRIM (Association of Beverages Indonesia), GAPMMI (Association of Indonesia Food and Drink), INEGI, AIJN, FWS, MAGRAMA / Mintel

* please note: the market size data referenced in this report is current as of January 31, 2016