• The world’s top 20 prepared meals markets are projected to have accounted for US$93.8 billion in 2015, led by China, the US and the UK

• Consumer uptake of prepared meals is driven by rising incomes, increasingly busy lifestyles and demand for convenience

• Growth in most well-developed Western prepared meals markets has slowed, while developing markets in Asia and Latin America continue to experience strong growth

Increasingly hectic lifestyles, premium innovation and the continued expansion of modern food processing and retailing drove prepared meals category value growth in 2015, with the world’s top 20 markets expected to account for over US$93.8 billion, led by China, the US and the UK.

Figure 1: Global market performance, prepared meals and meal centres (including pizza)*

Source: The Nielsen Company, GfK Group, Retail Today S.A., Statistics Canada, Nielsen Canada, Information Resources, Inc, IIAS, The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, CBS, Federal State Statistics Service, AMI VETRA Marketing, Statistics Korea, Magrama, InfoScanCensusTM, IRI España, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economist Intelligence Unit, Mintel

Growth of prepared meals in China is quite remarkable. The market is projected to reach CNY329.7 billion (US$53.8 billion) in 2015, with year-on-year value growth of 21% and volume growth of 14.8%

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan, South Korea and Australia contribute significant value and volume to the prepared meals category’s top 20 markets, with South Korea exhibiting the greatest strength.

The prepared meals market in South Korea is projected to reach KRW1,108.3 billion (US$983 million) in 2015, growing 10.5% in value and 6.6% in volume versus 2014. Prepared meals market value in Australia and Japan are expected to grow 3.9% and 1.6%, respectively, on volume that is projected to increase 2.2% in Australia and 0.5% in Japan. Other nascent, but rapidly developing, Asian markets with high value growth rates projected for 2015, on relatively small bases, include Vietnam (15.6%), Thailand (12.8%), Indonesia (7.4%), Malaysia (5.5%) and India (10.5%).  

Value growth rates in most well-developed prepared meals markets are projected to be flat for 2015, while market volumes are flat to declining. In the US, volumes are expected to decline 1.1% as value rises 0.3%, while Canada expects to fare slightly better, with volume growth of 1.2% and value growth of 1.3%.

In the UK, the prepared meals market is expected to decline 1.3% in volume as market value increases by 1.7% in 2015. Meanwhile, France and Germany remain in the doldrums with value growth of less than 0.5% on flat volume, while Spain looks to gain 1.2% in value on growth of 0.5% in market volume. Italy is projected to gain 1.2% in value on 0.3% volume growth in 2015.

Other smaller European markets, such as Norway, Denmark, Austria and Sweden, are expected to deliver moderate market value growth in the 2%-4% range in 2015, driven by an improving economy and the premiumization of offerings in the marketplace.

In Eastern Europe, the prepared meals markets in Russia and Poland have continued to develop in terms of market value, with projected year-on-growth of 9.1% and 4.3%, respectively, in 2015, but volume gains have been nominal.

In Latin America, Brazil remains the largest prepared meals market, projected to reach BRL2.4 billion (US$793 million) in 2015, with value growth of 9.1% on volume that will increase just 0.2%. Chile remains a bright growth spot in the region, expected to deliver value growth of 14.1% and volume growth of 13.5% in 2015, on a relatively small base of business. Colombia’s market has also continued to grow in 2015, projected for value growth of 4.8% on volume growth of 1.2%. In Mexico, volume growth of 2.3% is expected to outpace value growth in the market of just 0.8% in 2015.

Figure 2: Prepared meals (inc. pizza) retail market volume (000 tonnes), top 5 countries, global, 2015 (projected)*

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Information Resources, Inc.,, Fuji-Keizai Group, Economist Intelligence Unit, Mintel

Figure 3: Top 5 countries for prepared meal introductions, global, 2015

Source: Mintel GNPD

Although chilled prepared meals saw slightly more NPD globally in 2015, frozen prepared meals remain the most popular format, with 42% of launches this period. Chilled products represented 36% of launches, while shelf-stable products declined to 22% of new product introductions. These figures vary greatly by region.

The UK market is dominated by chilled products, with chilled NPD accounting for 65% of product introductions in 2015. Likewise, innovation in France and Germany was led by chilled options, accounting for 57% and 59% of NPD, respectively, in 2015. In contrast, frozen products continue to dominate in the US, and accounted for 60% of NPD in 2015. Shelf-stable products play a larger role in Japan, where 45% of new products were launched in such formats in 2015, followed by frozen NPD, which accounted for 34% of NPD in the period.

Convenience is the key driver of prepared meals uptake globally, and is reflected in product claims. More than two-thirds (67%) of prepared meals products launched in 2015 carried a convenience-related claim such as microwaveable, easy to use or quick to prepare. However, in many markets, consumers have moved beyond convenience and are demanding healthier, ethical and more premium options. This is being addressed by manufacturers through with NPD with no additives/no preservatives claims, as well as other health-related, ethical and premium attributes.

Figure 5: Top 10 claims on new prepared meals, global, 2015

Source: Mintel GNPD

* Please note: the market size data referenced in this report is current as of January 31, 2016