Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Growth in government funding for the railway industry driven by Crossrail
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- Figure 1: Government railway funding, 2011-15
- Network Rail spending on renewal schemes in 2014/15 higher than the allowance set by rail regulator
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- Figure 2: Rail renewal expenditure by asset, 2014/15
- Total expenditure on rail network enhancement schemes more than doubled since 2009/10
- Network Rail encounters major difficulties in delivering enhancement schemes in 2014/15, prompting a review and re-plan of the programme
- Average age of rolling stock rises to 20 years in 2014/15
- Crossrail will remain the largest rail infrastructure project over the next few years
- The largest rail infrastructure project over the next two decades is set to be the development of the national high speed rail network HS2
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- Figure 3: Cost of enhancement projects during CP5, 2014/15-2018/19
- Market factors
- Network Rail’s funding and delivery outputs are agreed in five-year blocks called control periods
- Increase in passenger journeys to drive investment in rail infrastructure and capacity
- Companies
- What we think
Key Insights
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- Network Rail encountered major difficulties in delivering enhancement schemes in 2014/15 - the first year of CP5 - prompting a review and re-plan of the programme. What are the key proposals on how the rail upgrade programme can be put on a realistic and deliverable footing?
- With the government having recently been more heavily involved in the procurement of major rolling stock orders, is this trend expected to continue?
- How is the UK passenger rolling stock fleet expected to develop?
UK Economy
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- Overview
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- Figure 4: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-15
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- Figure 5: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 6: UK output by industry, 2008-15
- Business investment
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- Figure 7: UK GFCF 2003-15
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key points
- Rail network funding and regulation
- Sir Peter Hendy’s re-plan for Network Rail’s enhancement programme 2014-19
- Drivers of investment in rail industry
- Railways Act 2005
- High Speed Two (HS2) and proposed major schemes
Rail Finance
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 8: Government railway funding, by type, 2011-15
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- Figure 9: Private investment in railways, by type, 2011-15
Infrastructure Investment
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- Key points
- Introduction
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- Figure 10: Rail infrastructure in Great Britain, 201115
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- Figure 11: Rail infrastructure in Great Britain, 2011-15
- Figure 12: Rail industry infrastructure activity, 2009-14
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- Figure 13: Major rail infrastructure projects delivered during CP4, 2009-14
- Capital expenditure
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- Figure 14: Rail infrastructure renewals, enhancements & maintenance expenditure in Great Britain, 2010-15
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- Figure 15: Rail infrastructure renewals, enhancements & maintenance expenditure in Great Britain, 2011-15
- Expenditure analysis
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- Figure 16: Renewal expenditure by asset, 2014-15
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- Figure 17: Private sector investment in track and signalling, 2011-15
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- Figure 18: Private sector investment in stations, 2010-14
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- Figure 19: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in England and Wales, by type, 2010-14
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- Figure 20: Analysis of enhancement expenditure on non-PR08 funded schemes by type, 2010-14
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- Figure 21: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in Scotland, by type, 2010-2014
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- Figure 22: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in Great Britain, by type, 2015
Rolling Stock
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- Key points
- Introduction
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- Figure 23: Average age of rolling stock, by sector, 2011-15
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- Figure 24: Average age of rolling stock, by sector, 2011-15
- Figure 25: Average Age of Rolling Stock, by Company, 2011-15
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- Figure 26: Number of passenger journeys, by sector, 2011-15
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- Figure 27: Share of passenger journeys, by sector, 2014/15
- Figure 28: Distance covered by freight trains, 2011-15
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- Figure 29: Rolling Stock Parc, as of March 2015
- Capital expenditure
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- Figure 30: Private sector rolling stock investment in Great Britain, 2011-15
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- Figure 31: Private Sector Rolling Stock Investment in Great Britain, 2011-15
Supply Sources
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- Key points
- Production
- Overview
- Hitachi and Bombardier Transportation only major train manufacturers with UK plants
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- Figure 32: UK production of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2010-14
- Segmentation
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- Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK production of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2010-14
- Imports
- Overview
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- Figure 34: UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2011-15
- Segmentation
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- Figure 35: Segmentation of UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2011-15
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- Figure 36: UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2014
- Exports
- Overview
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- Figure 37: UK exports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2011-15
- Segmentation
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- Figure 38: Segmentation of UK exports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2011-15
Investment Profiles
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- Chapter summary
- Introduction
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- Figure 39: Train Operating Companies, as of February 2016
- Train operating companies
- Abellio Greater Anglia
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- Figure 40: Key statistics for Abellio Greater Anglia, 2013-15
- Arriva Trains Wales
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- Figure 41: Key statistics for Arriva Trains Wales, 2013-15
- c2c
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- Figure 42: Key statistics for c2c, 2013-15
- Chiltern Railways
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- Figure 43: Key statistics for Chiltern Railways, 2013-15
- Cross Country
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- Figure 44: Key statistics for Cross Country, 2013-15
- Virgin Trains East Coast (formerly East Coast)
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- Figure 45: Key statistics for Virgin Trains East Coast, 2013-15
- East Midlands Trains
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- Figure 46: Key Statistics for East Midlands Trains, 2013-15
- Eurostar
- Govia Thameslink Railway (formerly First Capital Connect)
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- Figure 47: Key statistics for Govia Thameslink Railways, 2013-15
- First Great Western
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- Figure 48: Key statistics for First Great Western, 2013-15
- First Hull Trains
- Abellio ScotRail (formerly First ScotRail)
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- Figure 49: Key statistics for Abellio ScotRail, 2013-15
- First TransPennine Express
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- Figure 50: Key Statistics for First TransPennine Express, 2013-15
- Grand Central
- Heathrow Connect
- Heathrow Express
- London Midland
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- Figure 51: Key statistics for London Midland, 2013-15
- London Overground
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- Figure 52: Key statistics for London Overground, 2013-15
- Merseyrail
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- Figure 53: Key statistics for Merseyrail, 2013-15
- Northern Rail
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- Figure 54: Key statistics for Northern Rail, 2013-15
- North Yorkshire Moors Railway
- Southeastern
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- Figure 55: Key Statistics for Southeastern, 2013-15
- Southern
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- Figure 56: Key Statistics for Southern, 2012-14
- South West Trains
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- Figure 57: Key Statistics for South West Trains, 2013-15
- Virgin Trains West Coast
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- Figure 58: Key statistics for Virgin Trains West Coast, 2013-15
- West Coast Railway
- Freight operators
- Colas Rail
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- Figure 59: Key statistics for Colas Rail, 2015
- Direct Rail Services
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- Figure 60: Key statistics for Direct Rail Services, 2015
- DB Schenker Rail
- Freightliner Group
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- Figure 61: Key Statistics for Freightliner in the UK, 2015
- GB Railfreight
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- Figure 62: Key statistics for GB Railfreight, 2015
- Mendip Rail
- Rolling Stock Operating Companies
- Angel Trains
- Porterbrook Leasing Company
- Eversholt Rail Group
- QW Rail Leasing
- Network Rail
- London & Continental Railways/HS1
- High Speed 2 Ltd
Supply Industry Structure
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- Chapter summary
- Industry development
- Hitachi to start production at new UK manufacturing plant in 2016, joining Bombardier as the country’s only rolling stock manufacturers
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- Figure 63: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2011-15
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 64: Analysis of the employment structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2014-15
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 65: Analysis of the financial structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2014-15
Company Profiles
Bombardier Transportation UK
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- Figure 66: Financial analysis of Bombardier Transportation UK, 2010-14
- Company strategy and outlook
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AMEC Foster Wheeler
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of AMEC Foster Wheeler, 2010-14
- Company outlook
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Amey/Amey Rail
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of Amey UK, 2010-14
- Company strategy and outlook
- Amey Rail
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of Amey Rail, 2010-14
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Angel Trains
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of Angel Trains, 2010-14
- Company strategy & outlook
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Balfour Beatty Group
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- Recent rail sector developments
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- Figure 71: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty, 2010-14
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- Figure 72: Turnover analysis of Balfour Beatty by segment, 2013-14
Knorr-Bremse Group
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- Figure 73: Financial analysis of Knorr-Bremse Rail Systems (UK), 2010-14
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Siemens Rail Automation Holdings
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- Figure 74: Financial analysis of Siemens Rail Automation Holdings, 2011-15
- Company strategy & review
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Babcock Rail
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- Figure 75: Financial analysis of Babcock Rail, 2011-15
- Company review & outlook
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Network Rail
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- Figure 76: Financial analysis of Network Rail, 2011-15
- Company review & outlook
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Eversholt Rail (UK)
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- Figure 77: Financial analysis of Eversholt Rail (UK), 2010-14
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Porterbrook Leasing Company
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- Figure 78: Financial analysis of Porterbrook Leasing Company, 2010-14
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Hitachi Rail Europe
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- Figure 79: Financial analysis of Hitachi Rail Europe, 2011-15
- Company strategy
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Forecast
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- Chapter summary
- Market size
- ORR’s original funding settlement for CP5
- ORR introduces new targets for Network Rail’s asset management for CP5
- Move towards framework agreements during CP5
- Highlights of Network Rail’s investment proposals
- Sir Peter Hendy’s Review and re-plan for CP5 enhancement programme
- Funding for CP5 enhancement schemes to be enhanced by £2.5 billion
- Infrastructure
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- Figure 80: Rail infrastructure projects pipeline, as of July 2015
- High speed rail network (HS2)
- Other proposed new rail lines
- Maintenance expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 81: Forecast rail maintenance expenditure for CP5, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 82: Forecast rail maintenance expenditure for CP5, 2014/15-2018/19
- Figure 83: Forecast rail maintenance expenditure for CP5, by Activity, 2014/15-2018/19
- Capital expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 84: Forecast capital expenditure for CP5, by type, 2014/15-2018/19
- Renewals expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 85: Forecast rail renewals expenditure for CP5, by activity, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 86: Forecast rail renewals expenditure for CP5, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 87: Forecast rail track renewal activity for CP5, by activity, 2014/15-2018/19 and CP5 total
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- Figure 88: Forecast rail structures renewal for CP5, by activity, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 89: Forecast rail electrification & plant renewal for CP5, by activity, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 90: Forecast building renewal for CP5, by activity, 2014/15-2018/19
- Enhancements expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 91: Cost of enhancement projects during CP5
- Crossrail
- Thameslink Programme
- Electrification schemes
- Other committed schemes
- Other named schemes and CP4 rollover schemes
- HLOS capacity metric schemes
- Edinburgh to Glasgow Improvements Programme (EGIP)
- Borders
- Other Scottish projects
- Rolling Stock
- Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy
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- Figure 92: Fleet Size Requirements for Passenger Fleet under a Low Growth Forecast, 2014-44
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- Figure 93: Fleet Size Requirements for Passenger Fleet under a Medium Growth Forecast, 2019-44
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- Figure 94: Fleet Size Requirements for Passenger Fleet under a High Growth Forecast, 2019-44
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- Figure 95: Role of electric rolling stock under the medium growth forecast, 2019-2044
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations & regulatory bodies
- Trade magazines
- Trade exhibitions
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