Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market size
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- Figure 1: UK market for children’s social care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
- Figure 2: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 3: Number of children looked after, by country, 2015/16, (% of UK total)
- Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2011/12 and 2015/16, (% of total market)
- Market trends
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- Figure 5: UK children’s home placements, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £000)
- Figure 6: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2015, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
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- Figure 7: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £000)
- Figure 8: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2011/12-2015/16, (% of total provision)
- Growth in fostering care demand is currently unsustainable
- Referrals to children’s social care fell in 2015 following an increase in 2014, while completed initial assessments have risen
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- Figure 9: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2010/11-2014/15, (Number)
- High profile abuse scandals keeps public spotlight on the standards of children’s social care services
- Market factors
- Differing levels of need provides challenges to care commissioners and operators
- A number of barriers restrict the market from operating at full efficiency
- Accountability difficulty due to lack of suitable and complete data
- Government launches reform of market that will force poor-performing services to improve or face being taken over
- Companies
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- Figure 10: Analysis of profiled companies’ turnover, 2010-2014, (£ million)
- Forecast
- Stable growth expected over the next five years, but reform outcomes may affect development rate
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- Figure 11: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
- Special education expected to account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
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- Figure 12: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
- What we think
Key Insights
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- How has the industry reacted to the growing level of children in need of being looked after?
- Can fostering services continue to cope with being the most used service in the industry?
- What has been the impact of high profile abuse scandals being reported in the media?
UK Economy
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 13: UK GDP quarterly development, 2004-15, (£ billion)
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- Figure 14: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008, (Number of quarters and GDP as % of pre-downturn peak)
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 15: UK output, by industry, 2008-15, (Index: Q1 2008 = 100)
- Business investment
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- Figure 16: UK GFCF 2003-15, (£ million)
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key points
- Differing levels of need provide challenges to care commissioners and operators
- Growing presence of private and independent companies in the industry
- Industry’s existing barriers to market entry still restricting development
- Accountability difficulty due to lack of suitable and complete data
- Shock closure and restructuring of the leading foster care association has forced the market to adapt
- The first Ofsted inspections conducted under new framework met with mixed response
- Government launches market reform that will force poor-performing services to improve or face being taken over
Market Size and Trends
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- Key points
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- Figure 17: UK market for children’s social care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 18: UK market for children’s social care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
- Regional analysis
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- Figure 19: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 20: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 21: Number of children looked after, by country, 2011-15, (Number of children)
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- Figure 22: Number of children looked after, by country, 2015/16, (% of UK total)
- Figure 23: Number of children looked after in England, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2011-15, (Number of children)
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- Figure 24: Number of children looked after in Scotland, by age and gender, as of 31 July, 2011-15, (Number of children)
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- Figure 25: Number of children looked after in Wales, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2011-15, (Number of children)
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- Figure 26: Number of children looked after in the UK, by age and country, as of 31 March (Rest of UK) and 31 July (Scotland), 2015, (% of children looked after)
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Introduction
- Residential care
- Foster care
- Special education
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- Figure 27: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 28: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2011/12 and 2015/16, (% of total market)
- Figure 29: Number of children looked after, at 31 March and 31 July, by placement type, UK, 2011-15, (Number of children)
- Independent vs public supply
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- Figure 30: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2011/12-2015/16, (% and £ million)
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- Figure 31: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2011/12-2015/16, (% of total provision)
- Figure 32: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social Care, by sector and type of provider, 2011/12-2015/16, (% and £ million)
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- Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2011/12 and 2015/16, (% of total sector value)
- Children’s homes
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- Figure 34: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £ 000)
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- Figure 35: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £ 000)
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- Figure 36: Number of children in children’s homes in Scotland, 2011-15, (Number of children)
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- Figure 37: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2015, by region, (Number)
- Figure 38: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2015, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
- Fostering services
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- Figure 39: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £ 000)
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- Figure 40: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and £000)
- Figure 41: Foster placements, at 31 March of each year, by placement type and location, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children)
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- Figure 42: UK fostering rates, 2014/15 and 2015/16, (£ per week)
- Special education
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- Figure 43: UK market for SEN care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
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- Figure 44: UK market for SEN care, 2011/12-2015/16, (£ million)
- Figure 45: Students with special educational needs, by school type, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (Number of children and % of pupils in each school type)
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- Figure 46: Students with special educational needs, by academy type, England, 2014 and 2015, (Number of children and % of pupils in each academy type)
Market Trends
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- Key points
- Growth in fostering care demand is currently unsustainable
- Referrals to children’s social care fell in 2015 following an increase in 2014, while completed initial assessments have risen
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- Figure 47: Referrals and initial assessments to children’s social care, England, 2010/11-2014/15, (Number and rate per 10,000 children under 18 years)
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- Figure 48: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2010/11-2014/15, (Number)
- Figure 49: Referrals to children’s social care, England, by most common source of referral, 2014/15, (%)
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- Figure 50: Initial assessments to children’s social care, England, by most common primary need, 2014/15, (%)
- Placement stability still has room for improvement
- High profile abuse scandals keep the public spotlight on the standards of children’s social care services
- Increasing presence of independent providers as local authorities continue to face spending challenges
Industry Structure
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- Key points
- Industry development
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- Figure 51: Number of secure children’s homes in the UK, by country, 2011-15, (Number)
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- Figure 52: Proportion of all children’s homes run by state or independent organisations, by region, as of 30 September 2015, (%)
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- Figure 53: Children’s homes in England, by company, as of 31 March in 2013 and 2014, (Number)
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- Figure 54: Children’s homes in England, by company, as of 31 March in 2014, (Number)
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- Figure 55: Analysis of the changes in the structure of other residential care activities, 2011-15, (Number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 56: Analysis of changes in the structure of ‘Other residential care activities’, 2011-15, (Number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 57: Analysis of the changes in the structure of ‘Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2011-2015, (Number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 58: Analysis of the changes in the structure of ‘Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2011-15, (Number of outlets and businesses)
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 59: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘Other residential care activities’, 2014 and 2015, (Number of employees and outlets)
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- Figure 60: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2014 and 2015, (Number of employees and outlets)
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 61: Analysis of the financial structure of ‘Other residential care activities’, 2014 and 2015, (£000 and number of businesses)
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- Figure 62: Analysis of the financial structure of ‘Other social Work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2014 and 2015, (£000 and number of businesses)
Company Profiles
Acorn Care and Education
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- Figure 63: Financial analysis of Acorn Care and Education, 2010-14, (£ 000)
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- Figure 64: Financial analysis of Fostering Solutions, 2010-14, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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Cambian Childcare (formerly Advanced Childcare)
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- Figure 65: Financial analysis of Cambian Childcare Limited, 2010-14, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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Foster Care Associates (formerly Core Assets)
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- Figure 66: Financial analysis of Foster Care Associates (formerly traded under Core Assets Group), 2010-14, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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Kedleston Education
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of Kedleston Education, 2010-14, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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Keys Group
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of Keys Group, 2011-15, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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The National Autistic Society
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of the National Autistic Society, 2011-15, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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National Fostering Agency
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of the National Fostering Agency, 2011-15, (£ 000)
- Company strategy
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Priory Group
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- Figure 71: Financial analysis of the Priory Group, 2010-14, (£ million)
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- Figure 72: Financial analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2010-14, (£ 000)
- Group strategy
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- Figure 73: Profiled companies’ combined turnover, 2010-2014, (£ Million)
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Forecast
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- Key points
- Market size
- Stable growth expected over the next five years but reform may affect development rate
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- Figure 74: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
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- Figure 75: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
- Market segmentation
- Fostering demand may lead to greater IFA involvement
- The children’s homes market remains under pressure
- Special education expected to account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
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- Figure 76: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
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- Figure 77: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2016/17-2020/21, (£ million)
- Industry
- Recruitment issues acted upon to build a more adaptable and experienced workforce
- Increasing presence of independent providers raises concerns of profit over already inadequate service provision
- Greater communication between commissioners and care providers is key to improving market stability
- From May 2016, Ofsted will begin a new form of inspection jointly with the Care Quality
- Other factors
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade exhibitions
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