Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Certain demographics plan on cutting back on restaurant expenditures
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- Figure 1: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
- Price concerns prohibit beverage ordering
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- Figure 2: Beverages at restaurants, “It’s too expensive to order beverages at restaurants,” October 2015
- LSR/other growth outpacing FSR growth
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- Figure 3: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, market share, 2005-15
- The opportunities
- The restaurant industry is projected to grow further
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- Figure 4: Total US sales and fan chart forecast restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
- “Natural” is the top buzzword for 2016
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- Figure 5: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
- Customization is universally appealing
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- Figure 6: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Outlook is positive for the restaurant industry
- Sales of LSRs and other establishments surpass FSRs
- Future of commodity prices uncertain
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historic and projected sales performance
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Both FSRs and LSRs will have strong growth/LSRs gain market share
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- Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Full service restaurants
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- Figure 12: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 14: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Limited service restaurants/other foodservice
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- Figure 15: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 16: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 17: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- General economic prosperity bodes well for restaurants
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- Figure 18: Unemployment and underemployment rates in the US, January 2007-October 2015
- Food health and safety
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- Figure 19: Land O Lakes: European Style Super Premium Salted Butter
- Figure 20: Siggi’s: Icelandic Style Vanilla Flavored Strained Whole-Milk Yogurt
- Volatile year for commodities
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- Figure 21: YOY commodity price changes, September 2014 to September 2015
Foodservice Trends for 2016
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- Unpredictable proteins
- New bar stars
- Segment shifting
- Message more than marketing
- Figure 22: Distribution of menu ingredient claims and growth, Q3 2012-Q3 2015
- Extreme living – Balance or bust
What’s Working?
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- Technology’s role in foodservice
- Keep it simple
- Handcrafted
What’s Struggling?
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- Legacy brands struggle for identity
- Soda goes flat
What’s Next?
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- Better beverages
- Fast casuals go premium
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Highlight the use of natural ingredients
- Changes in future behavior depend on demographics
- Beverages face a value problem
A Look Ahead – Dining and Spending
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- Consumers split on future behaviors
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- Figure 23: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
- Figure 24: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
A Look Ahead – Desired Descriptors
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- Natural is the top descriptor for 2016
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- Figure 25: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
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- Figure 26: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more and menu incidence, October 2015
- Descriptors and demographics
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- Figure 27: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
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- Figure 28: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
- Descriptors appealing to the “Spend More” consumer
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- Figure 29: Desired food and drink characteristics, October 2015
Segment Visitation
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- Innovation abounds at every segment, even among less-frequented establishments
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- Figure 30: Visitation to foodservice establishments in the past month, October 2015
- Restaurant visitation by demographics
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- Figure 31: Visitation to foodservice establishments in the past month, snack shop, October 2015
Beverage Factors
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- Beverages must be positioned as a value
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- Figure 32: Beverages at restaurants, October 2015
- Beverages – Coffee/tea
- Beverages – Alcohol
- Beverages – CSDs
Hispanics
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- Hispanics dining attitudes and behaviors
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- Figure 33: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
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- Figure 34: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
- Hispanics and beverages
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- Figure 35: Beverages at restaurants, October 2015
Important Restaurant Considerations
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- Customization remains a top priority
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- Figure 36: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
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- Figure 37: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
- Correspondence analysis reveals strengths/opportunities
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- Figure 38: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, any occasion, October 2015
The Restaurant Experience
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- Quality and price are top-of-mind but look to secondary restaurant experiences
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- Figure 39: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
Restaurants and Tech/Social Media
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- The relationship between technology and restaurants will strengthen in 2016
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- Figure 40: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
Restaurant Preferences/Attitudes by Area
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- Urbanites are trendsetters, rural diners are very price conscious
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- Figure 41: Restaurant experience agreement, October 2015
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- Figure 42: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
- Figure 43: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
Age Differences
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- The under 45 crowd
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- Figure 44: Number of restaurant visits in the past month, October 2015
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- Figure 45: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, “customizes my order exactly as I like it,” October 2015
- Differences between Millennials
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- Figure 46: Number of visits: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
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- Figure 47: Plans to spend: 2015 vs 2016, October 2015
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- Figure 48: Desired food and drink characteristics, will look for more in the coming year, October 2015
Dining Out – Qualitative Assessment
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- Restaurant choice factors
- Price factors
- The role of sustainability at restaurants
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 51: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 52: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 53: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 54: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 55: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 56: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Correspondence analysis
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- Figure 57: Important factors when choosing a restaurant, October 2015
Appendix – Foodservice Trends 2016
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