Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Consumers generally stick to one varietal
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- Figure 1: Total CDN sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Educating the consumer (and particularly women) on wine
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- Figure 2: Know enough about wine to make an informed decision – any agree, by gender, July 2015
- Consumers open to wine availability in more stores
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- Figure 3: Would like to be able to buy wine at more locations (grocery and convenience stores) – any agree, by province, July 2015
- The opportunities
- Supporting margin through premium offerings
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- Figure 4: Willingness to spend on wine vs price as the biggest consideration – Any agree, July 2015
- Canada’s aging population supports increase in wine consumption
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- Figure 5: Wine usage, by age group, July 2015
- Canadians open to supporting local wines
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- Figure 6: Support of local wineries vs preference for foreign wines, by region – Any agree, July 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Wine’s growth expected to continue
- Canada’s aging population supports wine growth
- Canada’s uncertain economy
The Market – Market Size and Forecast
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- Wine sales continue to grow
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- Figure 7: Total CDN sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total Canada sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total Canada sales and forecast of market, at inflation adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Wine growth is balanced among different types
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- Figure 10: Trended wine sales, by segment, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Canada’s aging population will continue in the coming years
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- Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- Recent economic activities have negatively impacted consumer confidence
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- Figure 12: Consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2008-January 2015
- Canada’s population is ethnically diverse
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Share of volume holds steady as industry grows
- Potential legislative challenges for larger producers in Ontario
- Export opportunities for Canadian wine producers
Manufacturer Sales in Canada
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- Top players in the Canadian wine market hold share
- Constellation Brands earnings growth driven by investment in craft beer
- Andrew Peller Limited investments support continued growth
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- Figure 13: Share of market by manufacturer, year over year
- Smaller wineries holding share, but concerns raised in BC around sales at grocery stores
What’s Working?
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- Wine growth supported by aging Boomer cohort
- Value sales outpacing volume reflects continued industry premiumization
What’s Next?
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- Potential challenges for The Wine Shop/The Wine Rack
- Packaging design from around the world can influence innovation in Canada
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- Figure 14: Don Simon Sangria
- Figure 15: Martini Gold Vermouth Wine & Martini Rosso Red Vermouth Wine
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- Figure 16: Spook light honey wine with natural flavours
- Underdeveloped markets represent a growth opportunity
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- Figure 17: Top countries per capita volume growth
The Consumer – What You Need To Know
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- Canada’s aging population supports wine growth
- Canadians are willing to pay for quality
- Location wine is grown/made matters to Canadians
Wine Behaviour
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- Wine is popular among Canadians
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- Figure 18: Wine usage, by type, July 2015
- White and red wine hold equal favour among consumers
- Younger adults more open to less commonly consumed types of wine
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- Figure 19: Wine consumption (any usage), 20-34 vs over-45s, July 2015
- Figure 20: Percentage of wine drinkers who stick to the same varietal, by age, July 2015
Relevant Areas of Demand
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- Canadians prefer bottles to boxes
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- Figure 21: Preference for bottles over boxes or cartons, July 2015
- Marketing beyond the bottle
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- Figure 22: Reasons for choosing wine to purchase – Top five listed, July 2015
- Younger consumers more likely to use different packaging sizes/formats
- Advertising less effective
- Consumers demand the option to buy wine outside of liquor stores
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- Figure 23: Preference for being able to buy wine at more locations such as grocery and convenience stores, July 2015
Reasons Consumers Choose Wine
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- Canadians are willing to pay for quality
- Consumers see wine as being healthy for them
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- Figure 24: Agreement with drinking wine is good for one’s health, by age and gender, July 2015
- Wine’s perceived contribution to health is not only physical
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- Figure 25: reasons for drinking wine, July 2015
- Wine’s country of origin matters to consumers
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- Figure 26: importance of country and region, July 2015
- Region matters as much as brands to wine consumers
- It’s important to make decisions easy for consumers
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- Figure 27: Knowledge of wine and willingness to trying new varietals, July 2015
Differences across Population Groups
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- Men and women exhibit different behaviours and attitudes towards wine
- Women may be less likely to experiment with varietals, but expand types (ie sweet wines)
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- Figure 28: Interest in wine types, by gender, July 2015
- Meal pairings matter more to Baby Boomers (over-55s)
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- Figure 29: Heavy wine usage, by age, July 2015
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- Figure 30: Reasons for drinking wine: to enhance a meal, by age, July 2015
- Millennials more open to new wine types
- Brands and reviews more likely to influence Chinese Canadians
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 31: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of wine, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 32: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of red wine, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 33: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of red wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 34: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of white wine, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 35: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of white wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 36: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of rose wine, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 37: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of rose wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of sparkling wine, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 39: Total Canada retail sales and forecast of sparkling wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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