Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Value growth in the wines market slows down
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of wines, 2010-20
- Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of wines, 2010-20
- Still wine sees values fall into decline
- The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
- Hardys races clear in the still wine market
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- Figure 3: Retail value sales of the leading wine brands in the UK, 2014/15*
- Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
- Fruit flavours at the forefront of NPD activity
- The consumer
- Still wines are still the most popular option
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- Figure 4: Purchase of wines, by type and location, July 2015
- Supermarkets dominate wine sales
- Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
- Colour of wine is the leading price-exclusive choice factor
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- Figure 5: Choice factors when buying still wine, July 2015
- France scores strongly for a number of attributes
- Screw caps can tap into the premium/fine wine category
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- Figure 6: Interest in types of wine products, July 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Grape type trumps country in shoppers’ wine choice
- The facts
- The implications
- Prosecco should look to premiumise to avoid falling into the Cava trap
- The facts
- The implications
- The importance of impulse purchases
- The facts
- The implications
- Smaller bottles can have big potential
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Value growth in the wine market slows down
- Still wine sees values fall into decline
- Sparkling wines continue to soar and Champagne recovers
- Fortified wines show little annual variation
- The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Value growth in the wine market slows down
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- Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of wines, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of wines, 2010-20
- Still wine sees values fall into decline
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- Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of still wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of still wines, 2010-20
- Sparkling wines continue to soar
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- Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of sparkling wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of sparkling wines, 2010-20
- Champagne continues to stabilise
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- Figure 14: Total value and volume sales of Champagne, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of Champagne, 2010-20
- Fortified wine value sales stagnate
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- Figure 16: Total value and volume sales of fortified wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
- Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of fortified wines, 2010-20
Channels to Market
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- The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
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- Figure 18: UK value and volume sales of wines in the on- and off-trade, 2013-15
Market Drivers
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- Taxation on alcoholic drinks stabilises
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- Figure 19: UK excise duty rates for wines, 2005-15
- Wages recover to boost consumer confidence
- A weakened Sterling has added further price pressures
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- Figure 20: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling, 2009-14
- An embattled on-trade industry
- UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
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- Figure 21: Trends in UK per capita consumption of ‘100% alcohol’, 2007-14
- Bridging the gender divide
- Population changes could pose challenges but also opportunities
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
- Hardys races clear in the still wine market
- Proseccos drive growth in the sparkling wines market
- Robust brand growth within Champagne
- Buckfast growing fast in fortified wines
- Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
- Fruit flavours at the forefront of NPD activity
Market Share
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- Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
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- Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ shares of wine sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
- Hardys races clear in the still wine market
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- Figure 23: Retail value sales of the leading still wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
- Mixed performances among the middle-tier brands
- Proseccos drive growth in the sparkling wines market
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- Figure 24: Retail value sales of the leading sparkling wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
- Robust brand growth within Champagne
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- Figure 25: Retail value sales of the leading Champagne brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
- Buckfast growing fast
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- Figure 26: Retail value sales of the leading fortified wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
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- Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on wines, by category, 2012-15
- Retailers dominate advertising in the market
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- Figure 28: Top 15 highest-spending brands in the dark spirits and liqueurs category, 2012-15
- TV advertising becomes even more popular
- Selected still wine campaigns
- Selected sparkling wine campaigns
- Aligning with sports…
- …and with films
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Still wines
- Launches which are utilising technology
- High hopes for fruit-flavoured wines
- Sparkling wines
- Fortified wines
- Merging the on- and off-trade…
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Still wines are still the most popular option
- Supermarkets dominate wine purchases
- Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
- Colour of wine is the leading price-exclusive choice factor
- France scores strongly for a number of attributes
- Screw caps welcome in the premium/fine wine category
Purchase of Wines
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- Still wines are still the most popular option
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- Figure 29: Purchase of wine, by type, July 2015
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- Figure 30: Repertoire of purchase of wine, by type, July 2015
- Red and wine have equal purchasing penetration
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- Figure 31: Purchase of still wines, by type and location, July 2015
- Prosecco’s fortunes bubbling up
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- Figure 32: Purchase of sparkling wines, by type and location, July 2015
- Fortified wine remains relatively niche
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- Figure 33: Purchase of fortified and other wines, by type and location, July 2015
Purchasing Locations and Habits
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- Supermarkets dominate wine sales
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- Figure 34: Outlets used to buy wines in the last six months, July 2015
- A third of wine buyers buy it at pubs
- Impulse purchases provide opportunities for wine brands
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- Figure 35: Planned and impulse buying when shopping for wine, July 2015
Willingness to Spend on Wines
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- Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
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- Figure 36: Willingness to spend on still white/red/rosé wine, per standard bottle, July 2015
- Willingness to spend on Champagne continues to outstrip other sparkling wines
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- Figure 37: Willingness to spend on sparkling wine and Champagne, per standard bottle, July 2015
- Only 16% of sparkling wine buyers would spend more than £20 per bottle
Choice Factors
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- Colour of wine is the leading choice factor
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- Figure 38: Choice factors when buying still wine, July 2015
- Grape type is of higher importance than country of production
- Brand name and alcohol content round out the top five factors
- Other factors resonate with a third or fewer retail wine buyers
Characteristics Associated with Wines' Countries of Origin
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- France scores strongly for a number of attributes
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- Figure 39: Perceptions of wines from different countries, July 2015
- Australian wines are seen as modern but fall down on sophistication
- Italian wines score strongly among under-35s
- Limited responses for the other types of wines
Interest in Types of Wine Products
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- Screw caps can tap into the premium/fine wine category
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- Figure 40: Interest in types of wine products, July 2015
- Room for innovation in sparkling wine
- Interest in new types
- Potential for a more accessible positioning
- Opportunities for cocktails and flavoured wines
- Price-marking and single-serves could also appeal to one in five each
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market Size and Segmentation
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by volume, 2015-20
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- Figure 45: Forecast of UK volume sales of still wines, 2010-20
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 48: Forecast of UK volume sales of sparkling wines, 2010-20
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- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 51: Forecast of UK volume sales of Champagne, 2010-20
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 54: Forecast of UK volume sales of fortified wines, 2010-20
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 55: Leading manufacturers’ shares of wine sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
- Figure 56: Retail volume sales of the leading still wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
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- Figure 57: Retail volume sales of the leading sparkling wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
- Figure 58: Retail volume sales of the leading Champagne brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
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- Figure 59: Retail volume sales of the leading fortified wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
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