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Still, Sparkling and Fortified Wine - UK - October 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in the report
Still wines
Sparkling wines
Fortified wines
Excluded from the report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Value growth in the wines market slows down
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of wines, 2010-20
Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of wines, 2010-20
Still wine sees values fall into decline
The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
Companies, brands and innovation
Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
Hardys races clear in the still wine market
Figure 3: Retail value sales of the leading wine brands in the UK, 2014/15*
Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
Fruit flavours at the forefront of NPD activity
The consumer
Still wines are still the most popular option
Figure 4: Purchase of wines, by type and location, July 2015
Supermarkets dominate wine sales
Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
Colour of wine is the leading price-exclusive choice factor
Figure 5: Choice factors when buying still wine, July 2015
France scores strongly for a number of attributes
Screw caps can tap into the premium/fine wine category
Figure 6: Interest in types of wine products, July 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Grape type trumps country in shoppers’ wine choice
The facts
The implications
Prosecco should look to premiumise to avoid falling into the Cava trap
The facts
The implications
The importance of impulse purchases
The facts
The implications
Smaller bottles can have big potential
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Value growth in the wine market slows down
Still wine sees values fall into decline
Sparkling wines continue to soar and Champagne recovers
Fortified wines show little annual variation
The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Value growth in the wine market slows down
Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of wines, 2010-20
Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of wines, 2010-20
Still wine sees values fall into decline
Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of still wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of still wines, 2010-20
Sparkling wines continue to soar
Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of sparkling wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of sparkling wines, 2010-20
Champagne continues to stabilise
Figure 14: Total value and volume sales of Champagne, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of Champagne, 2010-20
Fortified wine value sales stagnate
Figure 16: Total value and volume sales of fortified wines, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of fortified wines, 2010-20
CHANNELS TO MARKET
The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
Figure 18: UK value and volume sales of wines in the on- and off-trade, 2013-15
MARKET DRIVERS
Taxation on alcoholic drinks stabilises
Figure 19: UK excise duty rates for wines, 2005-15
Wages recover to boost consumer confidence
A weakened Sterling has added further price pressures
Figure 20: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling, 2009-14
An embattled on-trade industry
UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
Figure 21: Trends in UK per capita consumption of ‘100% alcohol’, 2007-14
Bridging the gender divide
Population changes could pose challenges but also opportunities
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
Hardys races clear in the still wine market
Proseccos drive growth in the sparkling wines market
Robust brand growth within Champagne
Buckfast growing fast in fortified wines
Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
Fruit flavours at the forefront of NPD activity
MARKET SHARE
Accolade Wines leads a fragmented market
Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ shares of wine sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
Hardys races clear in the still wine market
Figure 23: Retail value sales of the leading still wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Mixed performances among the middle-tier brands
Proseccos drive growth in the sparkling wines market
Figure 24: Retail value sales of the leading sparkling wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Robust brand growth within Champagne
Figure 25: Retail value sales of the leading Champagne brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Buckfast growing fast
Figure 26: Retail value sales of the leading fortified wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Total category adspend nudges upwards in 2014
Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on wines, by category, 2012-15
Retailers dominate advertising in the market
Figure 28: Top 15 highest-spending brands in the dark spirits and liqueurs category, 2012-15
TV advertising becomes even more popular
Selected still wine campaigns
Selected sparkling wine campaigns
Aligning with sports…
…and with films
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Still wines
Launches which are utilising technology
High hopes for fruit-flavoured wines
Sparkling wines
Fortified wines
Merging the on- and off-trade…
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Still wines are still the most popular option
Supermarkets dominate wine purchases
Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
Colour of wine is the leading price-exclusive choice factor
France scores strongly for a number of attributes
Screw caps welcome in the premium/fine wine category
PURCHASE OF WINES
Still wines are still the most popular option
Figure 29: Purchase of wine, by type, July 2015
Figure 30: Repertoire of purchase of wine, by type, July 2015
Red and wine have equal purchasing penetration
Figure 31: Purchase of still wines, by type and location, July 2015
Prosecco’s fortunes bubbling up
Figure 32: Purchase of sparkling wines, by type and location, July 2015
Fortified wine remains relatively niche
Figure 33: Purchase of fortified and other wines, by type and location, July 2015
PURCHASING LOCATIONS AND HABITS
Supermarkets dominate wine sales
Figure 34: Outlets used to buy wines in the last six months, July 2015
A third of wine buyers buy it at pubs
Impulse purchases provide opportunities for wine brands
Figure 35: Planned and impulse buying when shopping for wine, July 2015
WILLINGNESS TO SPEND ON WINES
Only 28% of still wine buyers would pay more than £10 per bottle
Figure 36: Willingness to spend on still white/red/rosé wine, per standard bottle, July 2015
Willingness to spend on Champagne continues to outstrip other sparkling wines
Figure 37: Willingness to spend on sparkling wine and Champagne, per standard bottle, July 2015
Only 16% of sparkling wine buyers would spend more than £20 per bottle
CHOICE FACTORS
Colour of wine is the leading choice factor
Figure 38: Choice factors when buying still wine, July 2015
Grape type is of higher importance than country of production
Brand name and alcohol content round out the top five factors
Other factors resonate with a third or fewer retail wine buyers
CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH WINES' COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
France scores strongly for a number of attributes
Figure 39: Perceptions of wines from different countries, July 2015
Australian wines are seen as modern but fall down on sophistication
Italian wines score strongly among under-35s
Limited responses for the other types of wines
INTEREST IN TYPES OF WINE PRODUCTS
Screw caps can tap into the premium/fine wine category
Figure 40: Interest in types of wine products, July 2015
Room for innovation in sparkling wine
Interest in new types
Potential for a more accessible positioning
Opportunities for cocktails and flavoured wines
Price-marking and single-serves could also appeal to one in five each
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 45: Forecast of UK volume sales of still wines, 2010-20
Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 48: Forecast of UK volume sales of sparkling wines, 2010-20
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 51: Forecast of UK volume sales of Champagne, 2010-20
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 54: Forecast of UK volume sales of fortified wines, 2010-20
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 55: Leading manufacturers’ shares of wine sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
Figure 56: Retail volume sales of the leading still wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Figure 57: Retail volume sales of the leading sparkling wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Figure 58: Retail volume sales of the leading Champagne brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
Figure 59: Retail volume sales of the leading fortified wine brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15

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