Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Real sustenance needed
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- Figure 1: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
- Convenience is key
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- Figure 2: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
- Nostalgic nourishment
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- Figure 3: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
- The opportunities
- More filling options are key for growth
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- Figure 4: Cereal consumption, May 2015
- Consider customization
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- Figure 5: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
- Don’t limit to breakfast
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- Figure 6: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Chilling performance overall
- Cold cereal takes an icy blow
- Hot cereal continues to warm up
Cereal Sales Get Soggy
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- Declines in cold cereal sales cause category slump
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Future of cold cereal sours from not-so-healthful image
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20, in $ millions
- Nourishment for hot cereal sales
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- Figure 9: Percent change in sales of hot and cold cereal, 2011-20
- Other retail channels having success
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereals by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015, in $ millions
- Figure 11: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15, in $ millions
Market Perspective
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- Protein-, fiber-rich items pose threat
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- Figure 12: Number of people purchasing high-fiber and high-protein foods while watching diet, 2013-15
- Competition from frozen, foodservice
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- Figure 13: Reasons for eating less cereal, any agree, by generation, May 2015
Market Factors
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- Sugary reputation still a concern
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- Figure 14: Cereal consumption - eating more only, by important nutritional factors, April-March 2015
- “Baby bounce” expected to impact market
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- Figure 15: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- More of a good thing
- Everything old is new again
- Fiber alone not enough
- Committing to convenience
Manufacturer Sales of Hot and Cold Cereals
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- In cold, the large companies struggle most
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- Figure 16: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- PepsiCo leads in hot cereal
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- More convenience, portability desired
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- Figure 18: MULO sales of Dole Fruit & Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
- Gluten-free continues to make gains
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of Chex Gluten-Free Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
- Brands working in more health, wellness benefits
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of Cheerios Protein, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
- Consumer nostalgia leads to throwback products, packaging
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of French Toast Crunch, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Sweetened cereals see sales declines
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of Krave, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
- High fiber alone isn’t enough
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of Grape Nuts, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
What’s Next?
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- GMO-free claims keep growing
- Removal of artificial ingredients continues
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- Figure 24: Claims consumers would like to see more, by generation, February 2015
- Opportunity for private label innovation is strong
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- More healthy attributes wanted
- On-the-go options appeal
- Cereal’s snack-worthiness could lead to new opportunities
- Personalization is critical
Cereal Attitudes
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- Sugary cold cereals increasingly get passed up
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- Figure 25: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, May 2015
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- Figure 26: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
Cereal’s Sweet Spot
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- Consumers continue warming up to hot cereal
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- Figure 27: Hot cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
- Figure 28: Cereal Consumption, May 2015
Cereal and Healthfulness
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- They’re making smarter choices
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- Figure 29: Agreement with attitudes toward food packaging, top five, March 2014
Cereal Preferences
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- People want to personalize
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- Figure 30: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal Convenience
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- On-the-go options important to busy consumers
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- Figure 31: Attitudes toward cereal, by demographics, any agree May 2015
Cereal Satisfaction
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- Filling, energizing cereals wanted
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- Figure 32: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal Occasions
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- Cereal is a snack-worthy option
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- Figure 33: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal and the Past
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- Consumers fondly remember brands from their childhood
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- Figure 34: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
Cereal and Private Label
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- Store brands are finding favor
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- Figure 35: Attitudes toward Cereal, by demographics, May 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 39: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
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- Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 44: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
- Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of cold cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
- Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of hot cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
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- Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by gluten-free certification or labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
- Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
- Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by ancient grains claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 51: MULO sales of cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 52: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 53: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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