Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category sales are declining
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
- Unfamiliarity, high prices hinder success in craft segment
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- Figure 2: Negative craft CSD attributes, March 2015
- Health concerns continue to plague category
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- Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors toward craft and natural CSD, March 2015
- The opportunities
- Interest in craft and natural
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- Figure 4: Craft CSD interest, March 2015
- Opportunities to highlight natural/premium ingredients
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- Figure 5: Positive craft CSD attributes, March 2015
- Evolution of expectations
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- Figure 6: Attitudes and behaviors toward craft and natural CSD, March 2015
- What it means
The Market - What You Need to Know
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- Category sales declines forecast to continue
- Regular segment sees positive gains, diet decline continues
- Race, presence of children drive CSD consumption
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category decline to continue
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Regular CSDs recover slightly; diet continues to suffer
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Segments struggle through 2020
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Retail sales stagnant from 2013-15
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Natural channel sales grow 14.3% from 2013-15
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks February 2013-February 2015
- Natural sugar, sweetened CSDs experience growth
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 2/24/13 and 2/22/15
Market Factors
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- Hispanic and Asian populations growing
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- Figure 15: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
- Presence of children influences consumption
- Older Millennials
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- Figure 16: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
- Hispanics and Asians
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- Figure 17: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading company MULO sales stall
- Regular CSDs post slight gains
- Diet CSDs MULO sales continue to decline
Manufacturer Sales of CSDs
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- Leading company sales remain flat
- Manufacturer sales of carbonated soft drinks
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- Figure 18: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Regular Coca-Cola brands’ dollar sales recover slightly
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- Figure 19: Coca-Cola brand consumption, trended 2010-14
- Fanta continues growth
- Dr Pepper flagship a priority
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- Figure 20: Dr Pepper brand consumption, trended 2010-14
- Squirt, ginger ale brands help fuel growth
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- Figure 21: Ginger Ale brand consumption, by brand, trended 2010-14
- PepsiCo commits to Mountain Dew
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- Figure 22: Mountain Dew brand consumption, trended 2010-14
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of regular soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Who’s Struggling?
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- The fall of artificial sweeteners in CSDs
- Diet consumption decreasing
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- Figure 24: Diet CSD consumption, by brand, trended 2010-14
- Figure 25: Diet CSD consumption-average # of drinks in last 7 days, by brand trended 2010-14
- New campaigns to win back drinkers
- Private label
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- Figure 26: Store brand CSD consumption, by type, trended 2010-14
- Figure 27: MULO sales of regular soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of diet soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Next? – Natural and Premium
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- Natural CSDs
- Real ingredients
- Unique flavor experiences
- Naturally sweetened
- Natural CSDs with plant-based sweeteners dominate diet sales growth
- Leading companies get sweet, naturally
- Craft CSD pick up
- National craft brewers
What’s Coming? – Evolution to Carbonated Beverages
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- Healthy sodas
- Kombucha soda
- Soda by another name
- Non-alcoholic sparkling/carbonated beverages
- CSD alternative and a mixer
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers interested in craft
- Millennials, parents, Asian and Hispanics core craft/natural consumers
- Natural perceived as healthier
Craft Interest
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- 44% of non-drinkers interested in trying craft CSDs
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- Figure 29: Craft CSD interest, March 2015
- Real, premium ingredients strongest draw
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- Figure 30: Positive craft CSD attributes, March 2015
- Unfamiliarity, high price reasons for disinterest
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- Figure 31: Negative craft CSD attributes, March 2015
Millennials Core Craft Consumers
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- Opportunity with older Millennials
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- Figure 32: Craft CSD consumption – Any consumption, by generations, March 2015
- Young Millennials open to trial
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- Figure 33: Craft CSD interest, by generation, March 2015
- Natural ingredients drive interest
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- Figure 34: Positive craft CSD attributes, March 2015
- Young Millennials unfamiliar, older Millennials price sensitive
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- Figure 35: Negative craft CSD attributes, by generation, March 2015
Non-Millennial Craft Potential
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- Some craft interest, opportunities with Gen Xers
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- Figure 36: Craft CSD interest, by generations, March 2015
Fathers and Mothers Heavy Craft Users
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- Fathers are core consumers, opportunities with mothers
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- Figure 37: Craft CSD consumption – Any consumption, by parental status, March 2015
- Parents interested in craft trial
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- Figure 38: Craft CSD interest, by parental status, March 2015
- Ingredients most important
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- Figure 39: Positive craft CSD attributes, by parental status, March 2015
- Health, high prices fuel disinterest
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- Figure 40: Negative craft CSD attributes, by parental status, March 2015
Asian and Hispanic Craft Users
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- Asians and Hispanics are heavy craft users
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- Figure 41: Craft CSD consumption – Any consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2015
- Interest/disinterest similar across race groups
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- Figure 42: Craft CSD interest, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2015
Craft Purchase Locations
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- Stronger craft presence at supermarkets, mass merchandisers
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- Figure 43: Craft CSD purchasing locations, March 2015
The Natural CSD Consumer
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- Millennials
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- Figure 44: Natural and Stevia-sweetened CSD consumption – Any consumption, by generations, March 2015
- Parents
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- Figure 45: Natural and Stevia-sweetened CSD consumption – Any consumption, by parental status, March 2015
- Hispanics and Asians
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- Figure 46: Natural and Stevia-sweetened CSD consumption – Any consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2015
Natural CSD Association with Health
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- Natural/organic CSDs perceived as healthier/more nutritious
- Aversions to artificial sweeteners
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- Figure 47: Attitudes and behaviors toward natural CSDs, March 2015
Natural CSD Purchase Locations
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- More options at supermarket, mass merchandiser
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- Figure 48: Natural CSD purchasing locations, March 2015
Providing a Flavor Experience
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward craft/natural CSDs
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Regular soft drinks
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- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Diet soft drinks
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Total market by retail outlet
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- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 55: MULO sales of regular soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 56: MULO sales of diet soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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