How the online market is coming of age

One might suppose that the pattern of development for online retailing would be for young people to adopt it first and then progressively older people would follow suit. But it’s not as simple as that.

Online is changing as people become more confident in using it. But the majority of online sales were through the websites of store based retailers and for such transactions we think that it is increasingly artificial to make a distinction between online and offline sales. The share of the pure players is still very small – little more than the whole home shopping market generated 20 years ago.

Mintel’s own consumer research can throw light on this as for several years we have asked people where they shop for various goods and we can illustrate this trend for many major sectors.

Electricals

The electricals sector has been impacted most by online retailing, apart from smaller sectors such as books and music. In Mintel’s Electricals retailing – UK, May 2014 report, we showed that 2013/14 82% of people had bought an electrical product, 76% in-store and 73% online. Those figures alone suggest that consumers are using the two interchangeably, and the profiles of who buys what and where supports this view, though the progress of Amazon’s customer base illustrates how the market is maturing.

Figure 1: Profile of online electricals buyers, 2012-14
Base: 1,504 internet users aged 16+ (2013 1,874; 2012, 1,830)
[graphic: image 1]
Source: Lightspeed GMI/Mintel
  • Amazon dominates online shopping. In 2014, 73% of our sample had bought online, 41% had bought from an online only retailer of which 32% (ie 32 out of 41 – three quarters of pure play buyers) had bought from Amazon. So tracking the profile of Amazon shoppers is a good indicator of online shoppers as a whole.

  • Except that the profile of all pure-play buyers is a little younger. We think this reflects Amazon’s success to the extent that it has become almost the generic online site. It is taking some people longer to adapt to the idea of buying from the website of a store based retailer.

Fashion

Online fashion started slightly differently. It was the 25-34 age group that were the early adopters. The 16-25 year olds were a little behind, perhaps because they valued the social aspects of fashion shopping too much, but they soon caught up. It is logical that each of these retailers should attract the same sort of customer whether online or in-store.

What is remarkable in fashion is how little it has changed. The positioning charts for Next, M&S and Debenhams from Mintel’s Clothing retailing – UK, reports October 2014 and October 2012 are virtually the same and what differences there are have more to do with the way that the market is developing – Next attracting older and more affluent customers, M&S extending its reach a little younger.

The major change is that the number of people shopping online has hardly changed – suggesting that online buyers are becoming happier with buying online and are prepared to spend more.

Figure 2: Profile of leading clothing retailers, by age and socio-economic group, instore and online, 2014
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
[graphic: image 2]
Note: OL = Online; IS = In-store
Source: Lightspeed GMI/Mintel

Food

In the case of food retailing there has been growth in the number of people shopping online, and our latest data shows that it is still growing.

But while the number of online shoppers is growing, their profile stays much the same. Grocery online appeals mainly to time pressed younger people – typically those where both partners work and there are children. (See Mintel’s Online Grocery retailing – UK, March 2015 report).

Figure 3: Proportion of shoppers doing all or most of their food shopping online, 2011-15
Base: 1,500 – 2,000 internet users, aged 16+
[graphic: image 3]
Source: Lightspeed GMI/Mintel

Online shoppers spend less

One key factor in all online retailing is that people shopping online tend to spend less. This is most obvious in food retailing. 17% of our sample tell us that they do all, or most of their shopping online. Yet only 4.4% of food retailers’ sales is online (Data from the ONS, after adding in Ocado).

We think that the main reason for this is that the internet is difficult to browse and very hard indeed for the retailer to make opportunistic sales. There is no passing trade online. Shoppers know what they want to buy, look for it, buy it or not, and then leave. They are unlikely to spot something attractive on this route. In the case of food retailing, people are likely to be doing their main weekly shop and far less likely to spend time browsing the non-food offer (as they might in-store, when they have no choice but to walk past it).

Our online fashion data points to a similar conclusion and, we think, for much the same reason.

Implications

Online buyers are maturing, becoming more confident and are prepared to spend more. But in two of the sectors we have examined, electricals and fashion, there is a notable lack of growth in the numbers buying online. We think there are two reasons for that:

  • Store based retailers are fighting back. This is most obvious at Currys with its improved stores, service and price matching policies.

  • The disadvantages of online retailing just outlined for retailers are also a disadvantage for shoppers. The fact is that online works best in conjunction with stores.

Online buyers from store based retailers use online and in-store interchangeably. We have said this before, but making a distinction between online and in-store sales for multi-channel retailers is increasingly artificial.

But there also seems to be evidence here that online is self-limiting. It has advantages in convenience (always the most important driver in retailing), but it has major disadvantages as well, notably that it is hard to browse and that there is no passing trade.

The disadvantages of online are more relevant for the pure players than for the store based retailers, because pure players have no alternative marketing medium. That is not to say that the pure players will stop growing. But they are still small. They account for just over 5% of all retail sales, just under half of all online sales and that is little more than all home shopping retailers generated 20 years ago.

As online matures it becomes just part of a consumer’s shopping repertoire. It is not a question of whether people buy online or in-store, but which is most convenient for them to do at the time. It is not a question of online vs the high street, but much more that any retailer now has to excel both in-store and online. Consumers do not make the distinction – nor should retailers.

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