Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast for total UK pub industry revenues, 2009-19
- Figure 2: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2014
- Market factors
- Declining alcohol consumption plays a part in fall in pub visits
- The pressure of rising costs
- Population changes will have an impact…
- …as will external factors
- Companies and brands
- The consumer
- Pubs remain popular venues to eat and drink in
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- Figure 3: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars to eat and drink in, March 2015
- Higher-quality food is the leading enticement for boosting visits
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- Figure 4: Enticements for visiting pubs more often (any mention 1-5), March 2015
- Equal popularity for eating in pubs during the week and at weekends
- Almost half of pub visitors value pubs as part of ‘Britishness’
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards pubs, March 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Utilising entertainment appropriately to appeal to different interests
- The facts
- The implications
- Tapping into consumer interest in bargains
- The facts
- The implications
- Pubs need to compete more effectively with coffee shops
- The facts
- The implications
- The suitability of e-cigarettes in pubs
- The facts
- The implications
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Financial health continues to recover but remains fragile
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- Figure 6: Trends in how consumers describe their financial situation, December 2009-December 2014
- Figure 7: Consumer sentiment for the coming year, December 2014
- Alcohol consumption and pub visits have fallen
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- Figure 8: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-14
- Figure 9: Volume trends in the sales of beer, by channel, 2009-14
- Regulatory changes aim to support pubs
- New Clause 2
- Pubs as Assets of Community Value
- More sold pubs remain as pubs
- Drink prices remains an emotive subject
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- Figure 10: Index of the price of beer and wine in the on- and off-trade, 2007-14
- Tax changes moderate rising prices
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- Figure 11: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2003-15
- Business rates put pressure on landlords
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- Figure 12: Average rateable value of pubs in England and Wales, 2005 and 2014
- Councils allowed to set licence fees locally
- New drink-driving laws in Scotland
- Utilities and live sport costs are also on the rise
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- Figure 13: Trends in utility prices paid by non-domestic consumers (including the Climate Change Levy), 2007-14
- Figure 14: Trends in average fuel prices at the pump for unleaded standard and diesel, 2007-15
- Late-night drinking remains a controversial subject
- EMROs adopted in some larger cities
- Local Alcohol Action Areas
- Best Bar None
- Purple Flag
- Business Improvement Districts
- National Pubwatch
- Population changes also need to be acknowledged
- Decline of 18-24s set to pose a challenge
- Significant growth expected among C2DEs
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Key points
- Food continues to drive growth in the pub market
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- Figure 15: UK pub industry market size and forecast, 2009-19
- Alcohol sales continue to creep up but are being overshadowed by food
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- Figure 16: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2010-14
- Soft drinks are still often being overlooked
- Forecasts
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- Figure 17: Forecast for total UK pub industry revenues, 2009-19
- Figure 18: Forecast for UK pub industry revenues of alcoholic drinks, 2009-19
Market Share
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- Key points
- Only 16% of pubs are ‘managed’ venues
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- Figure 19: Estimated structure of the UK pub industry, by ownership/tenancy number of outlets, 1993-2013
- Figure 20: Turnover of leading pub operators in the UK, 2011/12-2013/14
- Figure 21: Outlet numbers of leading pub operators in the UK, 2011/12-2013/14
- Managed operators continue to thrive and grow…
- …while the leased/tenanted segment continues to struggle
- Freehold/independent pubs could thrive
- The controversy of the ‘beer tie’
Companies and Products
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- Market overview
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- Figure 22: Selected leading pub operators in the UK, by outlet numbers, 2012-14
- Figure 23: Business mix of selected leading pub operators in the UK, 2014
- Enterprise Inns
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 24: Key financial data for Enterprise Inns PLC, 2011-14
- Figure 25: Enterprise Inns PLC turnover, by segment, 2012-14
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Greene King plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 26: Key financial data for Greene King PLC, 2011-14
- Figure 27: Greene King PLC revenue, by segment, 2012-14
- Selected recent activity – disposals and takeovers
- Selected recent activity – ranges and other
- JD Wetherspoon plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 28: Key financial data for JD Wetherspoon PLC, 2011-14
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Mitchells & Butlers plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 29: Key financial data for Mitchells & Butlers PLC, 2011-14
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Punch Taverns
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 30: Key financial data for Punch Taverns PLC, 2012-14
- Figure 31: Punch Taverns PLC revenue, by segment, 2012-14
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Spirit Pub Company
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 32: Key financial data for Spirit Pub Company PLC, 2011-14
- Figure 33: Spirit Pub Company PLC revenue, by segment, 2012-14
- Selected recent activity and innovation
The Consumer – Frequency of Visiting Pubs
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- Key points
- Pubs remain popular venues to eat and drink in
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- Figure 34: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars to eat and drink in, March 2015
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- Figure 35: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars to eat and drink in, 2014 vs 2015, March 2015
- 21% of adults drink in pubs weekly
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- Figure 36: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars to drink in, by gender, March 2015
The Consumer – Boosting Pub Visits
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- Key points
- Higher-quality food is the leading enticement for boosting visits
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- Figure 37: Enticements for visiting pubs more often (any mention 1-5), March 2015
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- Figure 38: Enticements for visiting pubs more often (ranked 1), March 2015
- Cost also plays a key role
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- Figure 39: Enticements for visiting pubs more often (any mention 1-5), by gender, March 2015
- Millennials can be enticed with live events and entertainment
- Other factors play a more peripheral role
The Consumer – Pub Activities
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- Key points
- Eating in pubs is equally popular during the week and at weekends
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- Figure 40: Pub activities undertaken by pub users, March 2015
- Pubs look to tap into day and overnight trade
- The divisive issues of children and smoking in pubs
The Consumer – Attitudes towards Pubs
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- Key points
- Almost half of pub visitors value the Britishness of pubs
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards pubs, March 2015
- Leveraging high-quality food and space
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- Figure 42: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, January 2010-April 2015
- 36% of pub visitors prefer the indies with 15% wanting a wider soft drink range
Appendix – Market Size and Segmentation
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- Figure 43: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2009-19
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK pub industry, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK pub industry revenues of alcoholic drinks, 2014-19
- Variables for forecasts
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