Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Moderate growth forecast
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
- The consumer
- More likelihood to drink at home than at restaurants
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- Figure 2: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
- Special occasions, gatherings, and drink specials motivate customers to order alcohol
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- Figure 3: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- Price remains a barrier for 45% of consumers
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- Figure 4: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- Food/drink pairings, microbrews, and drink specials are important
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- Figure 5: Attitudes about alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can restaurants draw Millennials?
- The issues
- Insight: Focus on variety, flavor, and value
- How should restaurants appeal to at-home drinkers?
- The issues
- Insight: Exclusive selections
- Can LSRs compete with FSRs for share of alcohol spending?
- The issues
- Insight: More alcohol offerings, better selling programs
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Slowly rising disposable income drives on-premise sales
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- Figure 9: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-January 2015
- Figure 10: US unemployment rate and underemployment, January 2007-December 2014
- Median household income stagnates
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- Figure 11: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
- Consumer confidence fluctuates
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- Figure 12: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2009-February 2015
- Millennials most apt to drink alcohol at restaurants
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- Figure 13: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013
Competitive Context
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- At-home alcohol drinking more popular than drinking at restaurants
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- Figure 14: Alcohol at home and away from home, 2008-13
- Consumers more apt to drink alcohol at FSRs than LSRs
Menu Analysis
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- Key points
- Menu incidence of beer overtakes cocktails
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- Figure 15: Types of alcoholic beverages on the menu, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
- Figure 16: Top 10 alcoholic beverages, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
- Fast casuals find opportunity in menuing alcohol
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- Figure 17: Alcoholic beverages, by menu incidence, by restaurant type, PCYA Q4 2011-14
- Handcrafted options help create a quality drinking experience
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- Figure 18: Top 10 alcoholic beverage claims, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
- Sugar, mixes/juices mentions mostly down
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- Figure 19: Top 10 ingredients used in alcoholic drinks, PCYA Q4 2011-14
The Consumer – Overview
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- Key points
- Three in 10 consumers report high weekly alcohol consumption
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- Figure 20: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, February 2015
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- Figure 21: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by average weekly consumption of alcohol (by high, medium, or low), February 2015
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- Figure 22: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Any Rank, February 2015
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- Figure 23: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Any Rank, February 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 24: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus, by barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- Drinking at home means less opportunity for restaurants
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- Figure 25: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
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- Figure 26: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
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- Figure 27: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 28: Average (mean) spend on alcohol (percentage of total check), February 2015
- Special occasions drive purchase; happy hours likely to attract guests
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- Figure 29: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- Price is the primary barrier to ordering alcohol
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- Figure 30: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
- Guests look for locally made, wider flight varieties, food pairings
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- Figure 31: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus (top five rank), February 2015
- Consumers are looking for unique dining experiences
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- Figure 32: Attitudes about alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
The Consumer – By Gender
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- Key points
- Men more apt than women to be high weekly drinkers, especially beer/wine
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- Figure 33: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by gender, February 2015
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- Figure 34: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by gender, February 2015
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- Figure 35: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by gender, February 2015 (continued)
- Men more driven by favorite brands, craft beers; women likely to order at special occasions
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- Figure 36: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by gender, February 2015
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- Figure 37: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by gender, February 2015 (continued)
- Men want to see wider variety; women desire lower ABV, specialty drinks
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- Figure 38: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by gender, February 2015
The Consumer – By Generations
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- Key points
- Millennials most apt to be high weekly drinkers
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- Figure 39: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by generations, February 2015
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- Figure 40: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by generations, February 2015
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- Figure 41: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
- Millennials will spend more on alcohol than other generations
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- Figure 42: Average (mean) spend on alcohol, by generations, February 2015
- Drink specials, restaurant brand alcohol appeals to Millennials
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- Figure 43: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by generations, February 2015
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- Figure 44: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
- Unique offerings most desired by Millennials
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- Figure 45: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by generations, February 2015
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- Figure 46: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
- Millennials very invested in alcohol at restaurants
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by generations, February 2015
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
The Consumer – By Household Income
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- Key points
- High weekly alcohol consumption increases with household income
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- Figure 49: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by household income, February 2015
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- Figure 50: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by household income, February 2015
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- Figure 51: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by household income, February 2015 (continued)
The Consumer – By Presence of Children in Household
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- Key points
- Presence of children often means high alcohol consumption
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- Figure 52: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 53: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 54: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
- Households with children spend more on alcohol when dining out
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- Figure 55: Average (mean) spend on alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015
- Households without children more apt to drink at restaurants for special occasions
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- Figure 56: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 57: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
- Parents likely to limit drinking when dining out with kids
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- Figure 58: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015
- Low ABV a potential selling point for parents
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- Figure 59: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 60: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
- Parents tend to drink when dining out with friends more than with family
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 62: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
The Consumer – Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics drink more at restaurants than non-Hispanics
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- Figure 63: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
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- Figure 64: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
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- Figure 65: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
- Late night drink specials, restaurant brand alcohol drive sales to Hispanics
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- Figure 66: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
- Unique brands and styles appeal to Hispanic drinkers
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- Figure 67: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
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- Figure 68: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
- Value offerings likely to attract Hispanics
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
Appendix – Trade Associations
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- Council for Responsible Nutrition
- Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
- International Food Information Council (IFIC)
- International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
- International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
- International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
- International Franchise Association (IFA)
- National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
- National Restaurant Association (NRA)
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