Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Small growth forecast
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta, rice, and grains, at current prices, 2009-19
- Key players
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- Figure 2: MULO sales of pasta, rice, and grains, by rolling 52 weeks 2014
- The consumer
- High household penetration
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- Figure 3: Household purchases of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015
- Expanding meal and snack-time opportunities could help grow sales
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- Figure 4: Ways packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains are eaten, January 2015
- Versatility, short cooking time important to many buyers
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- Figure 5: Packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains attributes buyers look for, January 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can pasta/noodle and pasta meal brands turn around sales losses?
- Insight: Offer more gluten-free options, focus on other healthful attributes
- Can shorter cooking times encourage sales?
- Insight: RTE products provide short preparation times
- Will emerging pasta, grains, and noodles help grow sales?
- Insight: Expand range of products by incorporating emerging varieties
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of pasta, rice, and grains
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta, rice, and grains, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta, rice, and grains, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta, rice, and grains, at current prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Gluten-/carbohydrate-free diet trends lead to some category avoidance
- Increasing durum wheat prices may impact pasta retail prices
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- Figure 9: Durum wheat: Planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, and farm price
- Demographics figure significantly in purchases
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- Figure 10: Population by generation, 2010-20
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- Figure 11: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
- Figure 12: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Pasta/noodles and pasta mixes suffer from shift away from gluten, carbs
- Sales of pasta and rice, by segment
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of pasta and rice, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Sales and forecast of pasta and noodles
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of pasta mixes
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of dry rice
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of rice mixes and RTS rice
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of rice mixes and RTS rice, at current prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets dominate
- Sales of pasta, rice, and grains, by channel
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales of pasta, rice, and grains, by channel, 2012 and 2014
- Competition from mass merchandisers cuts into sales growth
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- Figure 19: US supermarket sales of pasta, rice, and grains, 2009-14
- Mass merchandisers likely responsible for other channel growth
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- Figure 20: US other channel sales of pasta, rice, and grains, 2009-14
- Natural channel sales of packaged grains grow nearly 42%
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, by rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains/rice and dry grain/rice dishes, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Leading companies decline or experience flat sales
- Market crowded with smaller players
- Private label makes up highest individual share
- MULO sales of pasta, rice, and grains
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of pasta, rice, and grains, by rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- MULO sales of pasta/noodles
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- Figure 24: Barilla YouTube channel video, 2015
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of pasta/noodles, 2013 and 2014
- Figure 26: MULO sales of pasta/noodles, 2013 and 2014 (continued)
- MULO sales of pasta mixes
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- Figure 27: Kraft Macaroni & Cheese TV ad, 2015
- Figure 28: MULO sales of pasta mixes, 2013 and 2014
- MULO sales of dry rice
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of dry rice, 2013 and 2014
- MULO sales of dry rice mixes
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- Figure 30: Knorr Rice Sides TV ad, 2015
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of dry rice mixes, 2013 and 2014
Innovations and Innovators
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- Low/no/reduced and vitamin/mineral fortified claims increase in 2014
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- Figure 32: Top 10 pasta and noodles product claims, by percentage of total claims, 2010-14
- Additive/preservative-free and organic claims rise in 2014
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- Figure 33: Top 10 rice (including instant) and rice mix product claims, by percentage of total claims, 2010-14
- Preference for gluten-free may grow
- Organic claims can attract shoppers looking for healthful foods
The Consumer – Rice and Rice Mixes Purchases
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- Key points
- High household penetration for any rice/rice mixes
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- Figure 34: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes, January 2015
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- Figure 35: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes, by generations, January 2015
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- Figure 36: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2015
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- Figure 37: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes, by presence of children in household, January 2015
- Buyers likely to look for single-serve/on-the-go packaging, ethnic flavoring
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- Figure 38: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015
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- Figure 39: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015 (continued)
- Gluten-free, organic, added benefits are important
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- Figure 40: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes – Any purchase, by product nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015
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- Figure 41: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes – Any purchase, by product nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015 (continued)
- New flavors can help drive sales
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- Figure 42: Household purchases of rice and rice mixes – Any purchase, by important purchase factors, January 2015
The Consumer – Pasta and Noodles Purchases
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- Key points
- Pasta/noodles household penetration somewhat higher than rice/rice mixes
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- Figure 43: Household purchases of pasta and noodles, January 2015
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- Figure 44: Household purchases of pasta and noodles, by generations, January 2015
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- Figure 45: Household purchases of pasta and noodles, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2015
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- Figure 46: Household purchases of pasta and noodles, by presence of children in household, January 2015
- Those looking for single-serve, on-the-go packaging very likely to buy pasta/noodles
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- Figure 47: Household purchases of pasta and noodles – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015
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- Figure 48: Household purchases of pasta and noodles – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015 (continued)
- Gluten-free, added nutritional benefits are important
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- Figure 49: Household purchases of pasta and noodles – Any purchase, by product nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015
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- Figure 50: Household purchases of pasta and noodles – Any purchase, by product nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015 (continued)
- Buyers say new flavors, packaging type are important
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- Figure 51: Household purchases of pasta and noodles – Any purchase, by important purchase factors, January 2015
The Consumer – Dry Macaroni and Cheese and Pasta-Based Meals or Side Dish Purchases
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- Key points
- Two thirds buy mac and cheese; less than half buy pasta meal/side dishes
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- Figure 52: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes, January 2015
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- Figure 53: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes, by generations, January 2015
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- Figure 54: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes, by presence of children in household, January 2015
- Buyers look for kid-friendly, RTE
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- Figure 55: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015
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- Figure 56: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 57: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015 (continued)
- Store brands, product color, new flavors can sway buyers
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- Figure 58: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes – Any purchase, by important purchase factors, January 2015
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- Figure 59: Household purchases of dry macaroni and cheese and pasta-based meals/side dishes – Any purchase, by important purchase factors, January 2015 (continued)
The Consumer – Grains Purchases
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- Key points
- A third buy grains
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- Figure 60: Household purchases of grains, January 2015
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- Figure 61: Household purchases of grains, by generations, January 2015
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- Figure 62: Household purchases of grains, by presence of children in the household, January 2015
- Packaging, ethnic flavors may drive grains sales
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- Figure 63: Household purchases of grains – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015
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- Figure 64: Household purchases of grains – Any purchase, by product attributes buyers look for, January 2015 (continued)
- Alternative, organic attributes may encourage purchases
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- Figure 65: Household purchases of grains – Any purchase, by nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015
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- Figure 66: Household purchases of grains – Any purchase, by nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015 (continued)
- New flavors likely to aid purchase decisions
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- Figure 67: Household purchases of grains – Any purchase, by important purchase factors, January 2015
The Consumer – Ways Consumed
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- Key points
- Pasta most apt to be eaten as a main dish, rice/grains as a side dish
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- Figure 68: Ways packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains are eaten, January 2015
The Consumer – Product Attributes Buyers Look For
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- Key points
- High likelihood to look for versatility, short cooking time
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- Figure 69: Packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains attributes buyers look for, January 2015
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- Figure 70: Packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains attributes buyers look for, by presence of children in household, January 2015
The Consumer – Important Nutritional Attributes
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- Key points
- Whole grain, high fiber, no artificial ingredients important to many
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- Figure 71: Packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains nutritional attributes important to buyers, January 2015
The Consumer – Important Purchase Factors
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- Key points
- Importance of low price points up need for value
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- Figure 72: Important purchase factors for packaged pasta, rice, noodles, and grains, January 2015
The Consumer – Interest in Emerging Types of Pasta, Rice, Noodles, and Grains
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- Key points
- High level of interest in emerging products
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- Figure 73: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Have tried/interested in trying, January 2015
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- Figure 74: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015
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- Figure 75: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 76: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 77: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015 (continued)
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- Figure 78: Interest in emerging types of pasta, rice, noodles, and grains – Any purchase, January 2015 (continued)
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- EMS analysis
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- Figure 79: Household consumption of rice/rice dishes, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 80: Types of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 81: Kinds of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 82: Brands of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 83: Brands of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 84: Brands of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 85: Brands of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 86: Brands of rice/rice dishes eaten in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 87: Number of servings of rice/rice dishes eaten in household in last seven days, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 88: Household usage of packaged pasta, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 89: Kinds of packaged pasta used in household, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 90: Brands of packaged pasta used in household, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 91: Brands of packaged pasta used in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 92: Brands of packaged pasta used in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 93: Brands of packaged pasta used in household, August 2013-September 2014 (continued)
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- Figure 94: Number of packages of pasta used in household in last 30 days, August 2013-September 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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- American Institute of Food Distribution
- Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
- Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
- National Pasta Association (NPA)
- Organic Trade Association (OTA)
- Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
- USA Rice Federation
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