Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Frozen snack sales plateau with competition from other snack options
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2009-19
- Declines in both handheld and appetizer sales
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2009-19
- Major category brands enter new territories
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- Figure 3: MULO sales performance, by leading companies by market share, rolling 52 weeks 2014 (year versus year sales change in parentheses)
- The opportunities
- Frozen snacks for experimentation and meal replacement
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- Figure 4: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree, by generation, December 2014
- Boredom impacting frozen snack sales
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- Figure 5: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree, by generation, December 2014
- Frozen snacks and flavor experimentation
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- Figure 6: Any frozen snack purchase, by generations, December 2014
- Frozen snacks’ healthy potential
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- Figure 7: Desired attributes of frozen snacks, December 2014
- Spicy options resonate with men, on-the-go with women snackers
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- Figure 8: Desired attributes of frozen appetizers, by gender and age, December 2014
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Frozen snacks face a challenging future
- Frozen appetizers should see their fortunes improve through 2019
Frozen Snack Performance Cools
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- Frozen snack sales suffer amid consumer demands for convenience, health
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Market Breakdown
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- Handheld options resonate with consumers looking for convenience
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2009-19
- Frozen snacks struggle to meet consumer expectations
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- Figure 13: Percent change in sales of frozen snacks, 2010-19
- Other retail channels siphon frozen snack sales from supermarkets
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14, in $ millions
Market Perspective
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- Grab-and-go provide a quicker option for time-crunched consumers
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- Figure 15: Agreement with attitudes toward snacking, by household income, January 2015
- Foodservice a competitor for snacking
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- Figure 16: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
- Figure 17: LSR specialty concept dayparts, June 2014
Market Factors
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- Nine in 10 consumers snack
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- Figure 18: Percentages of men and women aged 20+ consuming specified number of snacks in a day, 2007-08
- Children are the future of snacking
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- Figure 19: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Figure 20: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Nestlé accounts for 21% of the market share of frozen snacks
- Convenient and portable are the keys to success in the frozen snack category
- Negative publicity results in declines for Nestlé
- Consumers turn to frozen snacks for breakfast convenience
Leading Frozen Snack Brands Struggle
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- Pockets lead handhelds, while Totino’s dominates appetizers
- Manufacturer sales of frozen snacks
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
What’s Working?
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- Portability compels handheld options
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of Smucker’s Uncrustables, 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
- Restaurant brands go retail, and vice versa
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of White Castle frozen handheld entrées, 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
- Spice sells
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of General Mills’ Totino’s pizza rolls, 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
- Figure 25: MULO sales of Windsor Foods’ other brands, 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
Who’s Struggling?
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- Major handhelds face notable declines
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of Nestlé SA Hot Pockets, 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2014
- Friday’s loses focus on frozen snacks
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of TGI Friday’s frozen appetizers, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14, in millions
What’s Next?
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- Breaking into breakfast
- Avoiding GMOs
- Expanding ethnic options
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Health perceptions could help drive growth
- Speed is of the essence for parents
- Families in danger of getting bored with the format
- A convenient way to entertain
Frozen Snack Purchase
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- Households with children purchase more frozen snacks
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- Figure 28: Any frozen snack purchase, by age/presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 29: Purchase of frozen snacks, by presence of children in household, December 2014
Frozen Snack Occasions
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- Making a meal of frozen snacks
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- Figure 30: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree, by generation, December 2014
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- Figure 31: Occasions for frozen snacks, by demographics, December 2014
Frozen for Health
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- Frozen snacks could use healthy ingredients as a point of differentiation
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- Figure 32: Any frozen snack purchase, by generations, December 2014
Warning Signs for Frozen Snacks
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- Overly processed and boredom associated with frozen snacks
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- Figure 33: Opinions of frozen snacks, Any agree, by generation, December 2014
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- Figure 34: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree, by presence of children in household, December 2014
Hispanic Consumers Express Interest in Frozen Snacks
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- Figure 35: Opinions of frozen snacks, by Hispanic origin, December 2014
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Increasing Interest in Frozen Snacks
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- Frozen snacks have party potential; handhelds could go gourmet
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- Figure 36: Desired attributes of frozen snacks, December 2014
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- Figure 37: Desired attributes of handheld sandwiches, by presence of children in household
- Figure 38: Desired attributes of handheld sandwiches, by presence of children in household
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 39: Frozen snack clusters, December 2014
- Group one: Seldom Snackers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 40: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree by cluster segmentation, December 2014
- Group two: Dashing Diners
- Opportunities
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- Figure 41: Opinions of frozen snacks, any disagree by cluster segmentation, December 2014
- Group three: Foregoing Frozen
- Opportunities
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- Figure 42: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree by cluster segmentation, December 2014
- Group four: Saving Snackers
- Opportunities
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- Figure 43: Opinions of frozen snacks, any agree by cluster segmentation, December 2014
- Cluster methodology
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Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix: Market
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- Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrées, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrées, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
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- Figure 54: US supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2009-14
- Figure 55: US sales of frozen snacks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
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Appendix: Key Players
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- Figure 56: MULO sales of frozen snacks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Figure 57: MULO sales of frozen handheld entrées, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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- Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen appetizers/pretzels, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
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Appendix: Consumer
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- Figure 59: Frozen hot snacks consumption, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 60: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 61: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 62: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, by demographics, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 63: Frozen hot snacks consumption, July 2009-September 2014
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- Figure 64: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, July 2009-September 2014
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- Figure 65: Frozen hot snacks consumption, by demographics, April 2013-June 2014
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- Figure 66: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, by demographics, April 2013-June 2014
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- Figure 67: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, by demographics, April 2013-June 2014
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- Figure 68: Frozen hot snacks consumption, April 2009-June 2014
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- Figure 69: Frozen hot snacks brands consumed, April 2009-June 2014
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