Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast for mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2009-19
- Market drivers
- US population growth will benefit mass merchandisers
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- Figure 2: Population by age, 2010-20
- Growth among Blacks and Hispanics also a positive factor
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- Figure 3: Population aged 18 or older, by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
- Disposable personal income trending up
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- Figure 4: Real Disposable Personal Income: Percent Change from Preceding Periods, 2007-14
- Consumers increasingly want better prices and more convenience
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- Figure 5: Budget minded actions taken, September 2014
- Consumers shifting to online and mobile shopping
- The consumer
- Nearly everyone shops at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 6: Mass merchandisers shopped in last six months, December 2014
- Walmart is preferred among mass merchandiser shoppers
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- Figure 7: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, December 2014
- At least half of all races/ethnicities are heavy shoppers
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- Figure 8: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
- Food and beverages top the list of items purchased
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- Figure 9: Any item purchased in last six months, December 2014
- Women are more price-conscious than men
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- Figure 10: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by gender, December 2014
- Target and Meijer seen as fun and high quality; Walmart and Kmart can improve their quality perceptions
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- Figure 11: Correspondence Analysis, December 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What role do Hispanics and Blacks play for mass merchandisers?
- The issues
- The implications
- How can mass merchandisers enrich their customers’ shopping experiences?
- The issues
- The implications
- How is online and mobile shopping changing the landscape?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: The Nouveau Poor
- Trend: Return to the Experts
- Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Mass merchandiser sales continue to climb
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- Figure 12: Total US revenues and forecast for mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast for mass merchandisers, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Supercenters and warehouse clubs command market share
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- Figure 14: Total US revenues and forecast for mass merchandisers, by type, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Walmart enjoys steady growth while Kmart struggles; Target sales dip one point in most recent year
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- Figure 15: US revenues of leading national mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2009-13
- Grocery makes up the majority of Walmart’s sales
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- Figure 16: Walmart's US revenues, by merchandise category, at current prices, 2009-13
- All Target categories rather evenly contribute to its bottom line
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- Figure 17: Target's US revenues, by merchandise category, at current prices, 2009-13
- Kmart experiencing declines in all departments, namely food and drug
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- Figure 18: Kmart's US revenues, by merchandise category, at current prices, 2009-13
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 19: Total US sales and fan chart forecast for mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2009-19
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- US population growth will benefit mass merchandisers
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- Figure 20: Population by age, 2010-20
- Growth of multi-cultural segments will drive mass merchandisers’ businesses
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- Figure 21: Population aged 18 or older, by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
- Consumer confidence climbs while unemployment rates continue to dip
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- Figure 22: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-January 2015
- Gross domestic product drops in most recent quarter; disposable personal income rises
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- Figure 23: Real Gross Domestic Product and related measures: Percent change from preceding period, 2007-2014
- Figure 24: Real Disposable Personal Income: Percent Change from Preceding Periods, 2007-2014
- Consumers remain very value-conscious
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- Figure 25: US Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
- Mass merchandisers offer the convenience consumers desire
- Online and mobile shopping will become a larger part of mass merchandiser shoppers’ repertoire
- Recent security breaches at retailers have had relatively short-term effects
Retailer Overview
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- Walmart quick facts
- Company overview
- Key initiatives
- Small format growth
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- Figure 26: Walmart, Direct Mail, January 2015
- Enhanced grocery services
- Prioritizing e-commerce
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- Figure 27: Walmart, Landing Page, February 2015
- Investment in employees
- Recent news and innovations
- Target quick facts
- Company overview
- Key initiatives
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- Figure 28: Target, Mobile ad for Cartwheel app, October 2014
- Other services
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- Figure 29: Target, Direct Mail, December 2014
- Recent news and innovations
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- Figure 30: Target, Mobile ad featuring holiday campaign, November 2014
- Kmart quick facts
- Company overview
- Key initiatives
- Shop Your Way loyalty program
- Philanthropic efforts
- Recent campaigns
- Service offerings
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- Figure 31: Kmart, Landing Page, December 2014
- Recent news and innovations
- Meijer quick facts
- Company overview
- Key initiatives
- Community involvement
- Rewards program
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- Figure 32: Meijer, Email, November 2014
- Recent news and innovations
- Fred Meyer company overview
- Key initiatives
- Community involvement
- Other offerings
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- Figure 33: Fred Meyer, Direct Mail, September 2014
- Figure 34: Fred Meyer, Email, September 2014
Competitive Context
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- Other retail store types
- Amazon.com
Mass Merchandisers Shopped in Last Six Months: Overall and Primary
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- Key points
- Nearly everyone shops at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 35: Mass merchandisers shopped in last six months, December 2014
- Walmart is preferred among mass merchandiser shoppers
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- Figure 36: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, December 2014
- Shopping fairly even by gender
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- Figure 37: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by gender, December 2014
- Mass merchandiser shoppers tend to skew younger; Walmart maintains most evenly balanced customer base
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- Figure 38: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by age, December 2014
- One third of females 18-34 prefer Target
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- Figure 39: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, December 2014
- Target draws an upscale audience
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- Figure 40: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 41: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by household income, December 2014
- Consumers living in rural areas gravitate towards Walmart
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- Figure 42: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by area, December 2014
- Past four-week shopping incidences are down across the board
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- Figure 43: Purchase incidence at mass merchandisers in last 4 weeks, July 2009-September 2014
Frequency of Mass Merchandising Shopping
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- Key points
- Majority of mass merchandiser shoppers shop at least once a week
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- Figure 44: Frequency of mass merchandising shopping, December 2014
- Walmart visited most frequently
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- Figure 45: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in last four weeks – August 2013-September 2014
- Men are more frequent shoppers
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- Figure 46: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by gender, December 2014
- Two thirds of adults 25-34 are heavy shoppers
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- Figure 47: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by age, December 2014
- Shopping frequency increases with household size
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- Figure 48: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by presence of children under 18 in the household and by household size, December 2014
Items Purchased at Mass Merchandisers
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- Key points
- Online purchase levels high for many items; some higher than in-store
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- Figure 49: Any item purchased in last six months, December 2014
- Items purchased can vary by retailer
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- Figure 50: Items purchased at mass merchandisers in last three months, August 2013-September 2014
- Men are more likely than women to purchase higher-ticket items
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- Figure 51: Any item purchased in last six months, by gender, December 2014
- Groceries appeal to consumers of all ages
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- Figure 52: Any item purchased in last six months, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 53: Types of coupons used, July 2009-September 2014
Attitudes toward Mass Merchandiser Shopping
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- Key points
- Consumers like the convenience and value mass merchandisers offer
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, December 2014
- Women are more price-conscious than men
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- Figure 55: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by gender, December 2014
- Older generations are the least likely to be loyal to any one mass merchandiser
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- Figure 56: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by generations, December 2014
Influencers to Encourage More Mass Merchandiser Shopping
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- Key points
- More promotions and faster check-out processes could encourage more shopping at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 57: Factors that would influence more frequent shopping at mass merchandisers, by gender, December 2014
- A positive experience overall can influence repeat visitation
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- Figure 58: Factors that would influence more frequent shopping at mass merchandisers, by age, December 2014
- Most used incentive offers: rebates on product purchases and free products and coupons
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- Figure 59: Coupon use, July 2009-September 2014
- Figure 60: Incentive offer usage, July 2009-September 2014
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- Figure 61: Types of incentive offers used, July 2009-September 2014
- Figure 62: Types of incentive offers used, by age, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 63: Types of incentive offers used, by household income, August 2013-September 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics and Blacks are key to the market
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- Figure 64: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 65: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
- At least half of all races/ethnicities are heavy shoppers
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- Figure 66: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 67: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in last four weeks – by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013-September 2014
- Electronics, toys and games, and music popular among minorities
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- Figure 68: Any item purchased in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
- Blacks may not realize full savings potential mass merchandisers offer
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
- Consumers want to order online and be able to pick up in-store
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- Figure 70: Factors that would influence more frequent shopping at mass merchandisers, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
- Blacks very engaged with incentive offers
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- Figure 71: Types of incentive offers used, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2013-September 2014
Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
- Target and Meijer most high quality and cool; Walmart and Kmart seen as cheap
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- Figure 72: Correspondence Analysis, December 2014
- Figure 73: Characteristics associated with mass merchandisers, December 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Mass merchandisers shopped in-store
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- Figure 74: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 75: Mass merchandisers shopped in-store in last six months, by household size, December 2014
- Mass merchandisers shopped online
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- Figure 76: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 77: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 78: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 79: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 80: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 81: Mass merchandisers shopped online in last six months, by household size, December 2014
- Primary mass merchandisers shopped (online or in-store)
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- Figure 82: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 83: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by household size, December 2014
- Frequency of mass merchandisers shopped – in-store
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- Figure 84: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping in-store, by household income, December 2014
- Frequency of mass merchandisers shopped - online
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- Figure 85: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 86: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 87: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 88: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 89: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 90: Frequency of mass merchandiser shopping online, by household size, December 2014
- Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 92: Attitudes toward mass merchandiser shopping, by household income, December 2014
- Items purchased at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 93: Any item purchased in last six months, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 94: Any item purchased in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 95: Any item purchased in last six months, by household size, December 2014
- Grocery departments shopped at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 96: Grocery departments shopped within mass merchandisers, August 2013-September 2014
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- Figure 97: Number of times grocery department shopped, August 2013-September 2014
- Influencers to encourage more mass merchandiser shopping
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- Figure 98: Factors that would influence more frequent shopping at mass merchandisers, by household income, December 2014
- Correspondence Analysis – characteristics associated with Walmart
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- Figure 99: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 100: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 101: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 102: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 103: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 104: Characteristics associated with Walmart, by household size, December 2014
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- Figure 105: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Walmart, Part 1, December 2014
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- Figure 106: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Walmart, Part 2, December 2014
- Correspondence Analysis – characteristics associated with Target
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- Figure 107: Characteristics associated with Target, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 108: Characteristics associated with Target, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 109: Characteristics associated with Target, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 110: Characteristics associated with Target, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 111: Characteristics associated with Target, by presence of children in households, December 2014
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- Figure 112: Characteristics associated with Target, by household size, December 2014
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- Figure 113: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Target, part 1, December 2014
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- Figure 114: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Target, part 2, December 2014
- Correspondence analysis - characteristics associated with Meijer
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- Figure 115: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 116: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 117: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 118: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 119: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 120: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by household size, December 2014
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- Figure 121: Characteristics associated with Meijer, by marital/relationship status, December 2014
- Correspondence analysis - characteristics associated with Kmart
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- Figure 122: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 123: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by age, December 2014
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- Figure 124: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2014
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- Figure 125: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by household income, December 2014
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- Figure 126: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by presence of children in household, December 2014
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- Figure 127: Characteristics associated with Kmart, by household size, December 2014
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- Figure 128: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Kmart, part 1, December 2014
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- Figure 129: Primary mass merchandiser shopped (online or in-store) in last six months, by characteristics associated with mass merchandisers – Kmart, part 2, December 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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